Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 83%

19 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.4K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Signal

Down

35 of 44 top traders (80%)19 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down35 traders

Total Value$14.9K

Total Shares14,944

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,352

Combined PnL-$251.34

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$33.53	56% 29588-23194 (52782)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Downavg 80.4¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$93.64	52% 9157-8459 (17616)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 60.7¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$246.55	54% 16142-13537 (29679)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.7¢	$745.07	$1.2K	+$482.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.3¢	$729.53	—	-$729.53
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 71.4¢	$897.83	$852.47	-$45.36	66% 100337-52385 (152722)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.4¢	$608.86	$852.47	+$243.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.6¢	$288.97	—	-$288.97
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 64.7¢	$856.93	$737.32	-$119.62	52% 20679-18791 (39470)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.7¢	$476.94	$737.32	+$260.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.2¢	$380	—	-$380
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100	Downavg 73.7¢	$837.7	$619.2	-$218.5	52% 13279-12089 (25368)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.7¢	$456.23	$619.2	+$162.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.2¢	$381.47	—	-$381.47
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.24	74% 104047-36769 (140816)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 68¢	$706.61	$736.25	+$29.64	50% 5897-5900 (11797)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 62.9¢	$660.93	$735.66	+$74.73	51% 10713-10214 (20927)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.9¢	$462.46	$735.66	+$273.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.4¢	$198.47	—	-$198.47
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 67.6¢	$718.94	$1.1K	+$344.4	64% 16262-9245 (25507)
BO bosona	Downavg 88.3¢	$590.79	$669.27	+$78.48	55% 50948-41353 (92301)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 48.3¢	$702.13	$504.87	-$197.26	55% 13084-10661 (23745)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.7¢	$326.46	$504.87	+$178.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.3¢	$375.67	—	-$375.67
SP spartacray	Downavg 70.1¢	$619.02	$597.6	-$21.42	53% 27933-24698 (52631)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 42.2¢	$590.16	$454.42	-$135.73	55% 14370-11758 (26128)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.7¢	$266.59	$454.42	+$187.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.2¢	$323.56	—	-$323.56
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 70.5¢	$537.19	$565.96	+$28.77	59% 25673-17812 (43485)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Downavg 64.8¢	$474.63	$536.56	+$61.93	59% 10509-7250 (17759)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.8¢	$347.89	$536.56	+$188.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.4¢	$126.74	—	-$126.74
VE Vega7CTR<$100	Upavg 1.1¢	$16.04	—	-$16.04	73% 2949-1108 (4057)
AS asabovesobelow2CTR<$100	Upavg 1.1¢	$16.04	—	-$16.04	67% 1788-868 (2656)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 70.2¢	$531.21	$495.58	-$35.63	62% 29310-18336 (47646)
AL almach	Downavg 76.2¢	$375.92	$487.32	+$111.39	55% 49512-41120 (90632)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$708.95	$716.11	+$7.16	91% 26203-2490 (28693)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 58¢	$271.13	$344.06	+$72.93	53% 9979-9007 (18986)
└ Up leg	Upavg 9.9¢	$71.63	—	-$71.63
└ Down leg	Downavg 58¢	$199.5	$344.06	+$144.56
NIULAI4	Downavg 68.3¢	$468.07	$678.97	+$210.91	76% 9644-3087 (12731)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 78.4¢	$481.78	$539.52	+$57.73	56% 15338-12043 (27381)
MO mo-money	Downavg 84.6¢	$342.95	$405.49	+$62.55	55% 51617-42092 (93709)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,323.47

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$33.53

Record

56%

29588-23194 (52782)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Down

Invested

$1,689.77

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$93.64

Record

52%

9157-8459 (17616)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,474.6

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$246.55

Record

54%

16142-13537 (29679)

Both legs:

Down$745.0760.7¢+$482.98

Up$729.5343.3¢-$729.53

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$897.83

Value

$852.47

PnL

-$45.36

Record

66%

100337-52385 (152722)

Both legs:

Down$608.8671.4¢+$243.61

Up$288.9735.6¢-$288.97

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$856.93

Value

$737.32

PnL

-$119.62

Record

52%

20679-18791 (39470)

Both legs:

Down$476.9464.7¢+$260.38

Up$38041.2¢-$380

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$837.7

Value

$619.2

PnL

-$218.5

Record

52%

13279-12089 (25368)

Both legs:

Down$456.2373.7¢+$162.97

Up$381.4733.2¢-$381.47

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$1,112.48

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.24

Record

74%

104047-36769 (140816)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$706.61

Value

$736.25

PnL

+$29.64

Record

50%

5897-5900 (11797)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$660.93

Value

$735.66

PnL

+$74.73

Record

51%

10713-10214 (20927)

Both legs:

Down$462.4662.9¢+$273.2

Up$198.4728.4¢-$198.47

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$718.94

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$344.4

Record

64%

16262-9245 (25507)

bosona

Down

Invested

$590.79

Value

$669.27

PnL

+$78.48

Record

55%

50948-41353 (92301)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$702.13

Value

$504.87

PnL

-$197.26

Record

55%

13084-10661 (23745)

Both legs:

Down$326.4664.7¢+$178.41

Up$375.6748.3¢-$375.67

spartacray

Down

Invested

$619.02

Value

$597.6

PnL

-$21.42

Record

53%

27933-24698 (52631)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$590.16

Value

$454.42

PnL

-$135.73

Record

55%

14370-11758 (26128)

Both legs:

Down$266.5958.7¢+$187.83

Up$323.5642.2¢-$323.56

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$537.19

Value

$565.96

PnL

+$28.77

Record

59%

25673-17812 (43485)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Down

Invested

$474.63

Value

$536.56

PnL

+$61.93

Record

59%

10509-7250 (17759)

Both legs:

Down$347.8964.8¢+$188.67

Up$126.7426.4¢-$126.74

Vega7CTR<$100

Invested

$16.04

Value

—

PnL

-$16.04

Record

73%

2949-1108 (4057)

asabovesobelow2CTR<$100

Invested

$16.04

Value

—

PnL

-$16.04

Record

67%

1788-868 (2656)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$531.21

Value

$495.58

PnL

-$35.63

Record

62%

29310-18336 (47646)

almach

Down

Invested

$375.92

Value

$487.32

PnL

+$111.39

Record

55%

49512-41120 (90632)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$708.95

Value

$716.11

PnL

+$7.16

Record

91%

26203-2490 (28693)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$271.13

Value

$344.06

PnL

+$72.93

Record

53%

9979-9007 (18986)

Both legs:

Up$71.639.9¢-$71.63

Down$199.558¢+$144.56

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$468.07

Value

$678.97

PnL

+$210.91

Record

76%

9644-3087 (12731)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$481.78

Value

$539.52

PnL

+$57.73

Record

56%

15338-12043 (27381)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$342.95

Value

$405.49

PnL

+$62.55

Record

55%

51617-42092 (93709)

Smart Money Signal

Down

35 of 44 top traders (80%)19 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xfb694757...dfb126

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793733900

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $3.4K

+$33.53

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Down — $1.8K

+$93.64

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Arbitrage — excluded

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$218.5

BoneOhio

Down — $1.1K

+$11.24

ply-pm0

Down — $736.25

+$29.64

blue.birds

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$74.73

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down — $1.1K

+$344.4

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