James Madison vs. Southern Miss

15 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold James Madison (50%) · James Madison at 80¢ · $27K held · ended Nov 6

James Madison80¢Southern Miss20¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

James Madison

Consensus Traders

James Madison 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.8K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 79.5¢

-4% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralJames Madison at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

James Madison

15 of 30 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

James Madison80%

Southern Miss21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

James Madison15 traders

Total Value$17.9K

Total Shares23,021

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Southern Miss15 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares28,593

Combined PnL+$730.68

James Madison — 50%Southern Miss — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on James Madison. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on James Madison) and the top 1000 (18 on Southern Miss) disagree here.

whaleSouthern Miss 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpJames Madison 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrJames Madison 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedJames Madison 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Southern Miss 56% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	James Madisonavg 83¢	$12.8K	$13.8K	+$1.0K	56% 7923-6330 (14253)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	James Madisonavg 84¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$78.68	54% 18232-15346 (33578)
└ James Madison leg	James Madisonavg 84¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$11.89
└ Southern Miss leg	Southern Missavg 17¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$90.57
HI hi774cCTR	Southern Missavg 16.9¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$145.49	46% 5201-6053 (11254)
PL pltrkr111	James Madisonavg 84¢	$999.99	$988.09	-$5.95	54% 772-645 (1417)
38 38791873984189CTR	Southern Missavg 13.8¢	$622.44	$937.32	+$596.39	48% 61256-66065 (127321)
HE Herdonia	James Madisonavg 83¢	$728.39	$728.39	-$0	51% 3806-3729 (7535)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	James Madisonavg 76.6¢	$502.56	$574.04	+$71.48	52% 14511-13193 (27704)
BI BillBenter2026	James Madisonavg 85.9¢	$481.71	$524.54	+$42.82	57% 19349-14322 (33671)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Southern Missavg 16.5¢	$486.31	$501.88	+$15.57	51% 1393-1314 (2707)
RN1CTR	Southern Missavg 13.1¢	$289.54	$498.42	+$208.88	53% 61400-53704 (115104)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	James Madisonavg 83¢	$498	$498	+$0	51% 1905-1854 (3759)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	James Madisonavg 90.5¢	$323.93	$384.6	+$60.68	51% 4772-4633 (9405)
└ Southern Miss leg	Southern Missavg 7.2¢	$156.16	$217.76	+$61.6
└ James Madison leg	James Madisonavg 90.5¢	$167.76	$166.84	-$0.93
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	James Madisonavg 88.3¢	$317.94	$318.6	+$0.66	53% 1353-1176 (2529)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Southern Missavg 15¢	$188.68	$201.25	+$18.87	51% 37681-36912 (74593)
VeryLucky888	James Madisonavg 82.2¢	$158.61	$129.28	+$1.93	58% 46729-33688 (80417)
latvian.demon	James Madisonavg 84.4¢	$126.6	$124.5	-$2.1	54% 783-660 (1443)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Southern Missavg 17.4¢	$114.3	$104.96	-$9.34	50% 1340-1327 (2667)
VE VenusianCTR	Southern Missavg 17.4¢	$105.93	$97.28	-$8.65	51% 1398-1364 (2762)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Southern Missavg 13.2¢	$64.17	$94.97	+$30.8	54% 9751-8144 (17895)
arjennnnn<$100	James Madisonavg 88¢	$88	$88.5	+$0.5	70% 843-361 (1204)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Southern Missavg 16¢	$84.84	$84.84	+$7.95	48% 347-378 (725)
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Southern Missavg 18.1¢	$43.82	$54.58	+$10.75	49% 3218-3391 (6609)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	James Madisonavg 78.5¢	$51.82	$51.15	-$0.67	59% 32988-23170 (56158)
PR primmCTR<$100	Southern Missavg 18.4¢	$49.38	$46.86	-$2.52	47% 1273-1454 (2727)
SE sentrio<$100	James Madisonavg 83¢	$32.57	$32.57	+$0.2	50% 25844-25552 (51396)

0xheavy888

James Madison

Invested

$12,791.36

Value

$13.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

56%

7923-6330 (14253)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

James Madison

Invested

$3,544.3

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$78.68

Record

54%

18232-15346 (33578)

Both legs:

James Madison$1,99784¢+$11.89

Southern Miss$1,547.317¢-$90.57

hi774cCTR

Southern Miss

Invested

$2,611.61

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$145.49

Record

46%

5201-6053 (11254)

pltrkr111

James Madison

Invested

$999.99

Value

$988.09

PnL

-$5.95

Record

54%

772-645 (1417)

38791873984189CTR

Southern Miss

Invested

$622.44

Value

$937.32

PnL

+$596.39

Record

48%

61256-66065 (127321)

Herdonia

James Madison

Invested

$728.39

Value

$728.39

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

3806-3729 (7535)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

James Madison

Invested

$502.56

Value

$574.04

PnL

+$71.48

Record

52%

14511-13193 (27704)

BillBenter2026

James Madison

Invested

$481.71

Value

$524.54

PnL

+$42.82

Record

57%

19349-14322 (33671)

LightParadoxCTR

Southern Miss

Invested

$486.31

Value

$501.88

PnL

+$15.57

Record

51%

1393-1314 (2707)

RN1CTR

Southern Miss

Invested

$289.54

Value

$498.42

PnL

+$208.88

Record

53%

61400-53704 (115104)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

James Madison

Invested

$498

Value

$498

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1905-1854 (3759)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

James Madison

Invested

$323.93

Value

$384.6

PnL

+$60.68

Record

51%

4772-4633 (9405)

Both legs:

Southern Miss$156.167.2¢+$61.6

James Madison$167.7690.5¢-$0.93

TAIWANNUMBERONE

James Madison

Invested

$317.94

Value

$318.6

PnL

+$0.66

Record

53%

1353-1176 (2529)

SnakeBallCTR

Southern Miss

Invested

$188.68

Value

$201.25

PnL

+$18.87

Record

51%

37681-36912 (74593)

VeryLucky888

James Madison

Invested

$158.61

Value

$129.28

PnL

+$1.93

Record

58%

46729-33688 (80417)

latvian.demon

James Madison

Invested

$126.6

Value

$124.5

PnL

-$2.1

Record

54%

783-660 (1443)

MadridTimeCTR

Southern Miss

Invested

$114.3

Value

$104.96

PnL

-$9.34

Record

50%

1340-1327 (2667)

VenusianCTR

Southern Miss

Invested

$105.93

Value

$97.28

PnL

-$8.65

Record

51%

1398-1364 (2762)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Southern Miss

Invested

$64.17

Value

$94.97

PnL

+$30.8

Record

54%

9751-8144 (17895)

arjennnnn<$100

James Madison

Invested

$88

Value

$88.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

70%

843-361 (1204)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Southern Miss

Invested

$84.84

Value

$84.84

PnL

+$7.95

Record

48%

347-378 (725)

PT-S7CTR<$100

Southern Miss

Invested

$43.82

Value

$54.58

PnL

+$10.75

Record

49%

3218-3391 (6609)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

James Madison

Invested

$51.82

Value

$51.15

PnL

-$0.67

Record

59%

32988-23170 (56158)

primmCTR<$100

Southern Miss

Invested

$49.38

Value

$46.86

PnL

-$2.52

Record

47%

1273-1454 (2727)

sentrio<$100

James Madison

Invested

$32.57

Value

$32.57

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

25844-25552 (51396)

Research grade

NeutralJames Madison at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

James Madison

15 of 30 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on James Madison. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on James Madison) and the top 1000 (18 on Southern Miss) disagree here.

whaleSouthern Miss 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpJames Madison 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrJames Madison 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedJames Madison 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Southern Miss 56% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that James Madison wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.