Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner

15 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (56%) · Spirit at 97¢ · $113K held · ends Nov 11

Spirit97¢FUT Esports3¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit

Consensus Traders

Spirit 56%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$113.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 96.5¢

+16% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

15 of 27 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Spirit97%

FUT Esports4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit15 traders

Total Value$105.0K

Total Shares110,705

Combined PnL+$4.5K

FUT Esports12 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares57,597

Combined PnL$-6.5K

Spirit — 56%FUT Esports — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+26 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

76% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSpirit 80% · 5

Aligned

sniperSpirit 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSpirit 75% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpirit 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 76% · 25

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Spiritavg 84.4¢	$50.8K	$52.6K	+$1.8K	65% 48-26 (74)
Neimuking	Spiritavg 69.4¢	$12.1K	$15.5K	+$3.4K	— 1-13 (14)
RE redvinny	Spiritavg 90.8¢	$12.4K	$11.6K	-$716.37	7% 10-128 (138)
RR rrooster	Spiritavg 86.6¢	$6.8K	$6.4K	-$399.71	38% 17-28 (45)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Spiritavg 86.7¢	$6.4K	$6.0K	-$371.27	56% 3831-3002 (6833)
31 319113331313111	Spiritavg 87.4¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$129.07	48% 55-59 (114)
Vladooos	Spiritavg 73¢	$2.1K	$2.5K	+$454.01	70% 14-6 (20)
vtcchampion52	Spiritavg 84.6¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$134.02	48% 847-902 (1749)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Spiritavg 88.4¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$205.32	53% 1745-1547 (3292)
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 88.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$67.17
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 11.6¢	$640.1	$912.59	+$272.49
2H 2HAE	Spiritavg 94¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$31.9	10% 10-93 (103)
FE fengdubisheng117CTR	FUT Esportsavg 22.8¢	$4.4K	$1.3K	$-3.2K	2% 1-49 (50)
FK fkALG2FalconsTESARB<$100	FUT Esportsavg 14¢	$4.8K	$1.2K	+$356.18	46% 892-1057 (1949)
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 74¢	$648.73	$810.91	+$713.68
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 14¢	$770	$412.5	-$357.5
BI BillBenter2026	Spiritavg 81¢	$997.4	$1.2K	+$153.59	20% 123-483 (606)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	FUT Esportsavg 30.8¢	$3.2K	$1.1K	$-2.0K	55% 131-109 (240)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	FUT Esportsavg 16¢	$1.5K	$679.72	-$770.35	51% 3694-3532 (7226)
alpheclabs2CTR	FUT Esportsavg 11¢	$677.2	$678.92	+$1.72	46% 103-121 (224)
PA pauleta23	Spiritavg 92.6¢	$586.89	$489.85	-$97.04	27% 172-461 (633)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	FUT Esportsavg 10.4¢	$508.5	$367.5	-$141	11% 13-108 (121)
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR	FUT Esportsavg 13.5¢	$564.48	$313.56	-$250.92	10% 14-122 (136)
LO lonmi2511	Spiritavg 70¢	$242.25	$308.01	+$65.75	60% 640-425 (1065)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	FUT Esportsavg 13¢	$4.5K	$215.88	+$33.21	22% 25-88 (113)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 13¢	$215.77	$124.48	-$71.79
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 86.7¢	$85.64	$91.39	+$104.99
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Spiritavg 70.2¢	$226.16	$147.07	-$23.9	54% 493-423 (916)
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 70.2¢	$90.07	$114.21	+$24.12
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 27.2¢	$81.33	$32.86	-$48.02
WE westing.v1CTR	FUT Esportsavg 9¢	$147.75	$123.13	-$24.62	12% 9-64 (73)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR	FUT Esportsavg 14¢	$179.36	$96.09	-$83.27	51% 101-96 (197)
YO yong32<$100	Spiritavg 93¢	$89.5	$89.98	+$0.48	16% 5-27 (32)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Spirit

Invested

$50,827.34

Value

$52.6K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

65%

48-26 (74)

Neimuking

Spirit

Invested

$12,087.47

Value

$15.5K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

—

1-13 (14)

redvinny

Spirit

Invested

$12,351.9

Value

$11.6K

PnL

-$716.37

Record

10-128 (138)

rrooster

Spirit

Invested

$6,760.29

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$399.71

Record

38%

17-28 (45)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Spirit

Invested

$6,381.09

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$371.27

Record

56%

3831-3002 (6833)

319113331313111

Spirit

Invested

$3,994.94

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$129.07

Record

48%

55-59 (114)

Vladooos

Spirit

Invested

$2,071.41

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$454.01

Record

70%

14-6 (20)

vtcchampion52

Spirit

Invested

$1,937.43

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$134.02

Record

48%

847-902 (1749)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Spirit

Invested

$1,852.67

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$205.32

Record

53%

1745-1547 (3292)

Both legs:

Spirit$1,212.5788.4¢-$67.17

FUT Esports$640.111.6¢+$272.49

2HAE

Spirit

Invested

$1,999.17

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$31.9

Record

10%

10-93 (103)

fengdubisheng117CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$4,444

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

1-49 (50)

fkALG2FalconsTESARB<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$4,819.62

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$356.18

Record

46%

892-1057 (1949)

Both legs:

Spirit$648.7374¢+$713.68

FUT Esports$77014¢-$357.5

BillBenter2026

Spirit

Invested

$997.4

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$153.59

Record

20%

123-483 (606)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$3,151.13

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

55%

131-109 (240)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$1,450.08

Value

$679.72

PnL

-$770.35

Record

51%

3694-3532 (7226)

alpheclabs2CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$677.2

Value

$678.92

PnL

+$1.72

Record

46%

103-121 (224)

pauleta23

Spirit

Invested

$586.89

Value

$489.85

PnL

-$97.04

Record

27%

172-461 (633)

ubetteruuuuCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$508.5

Value

$367.5

PnL

-$141

Record

11%

13-108 (121)

0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$564.48

Value

$313.56

PnL

-$250.92

Record

10%

14-122 (136)

lonmi2511

Spirit

Invested

$242.25

Value

$308.01

PnL

+$65.75

Record

60%

640-425 (1065)

calculate10ARB<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$4,536.07

Value

$215.88

PnL

+$33.21

Record

22%

25-88 (113)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$215.7713¢-$71.79

Spirit$85.6486.7¢+$104.99

ghorrockARB<$100

Spirit

Invested

$226.16

Value

$147.07

PnL

-$23.9

Record

54%

493-423 (916)

Both legs:

Spirit$90.0770.2¢+$24.12

FUT Esports$81.3327.2¢-$48.02

westing.v1CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$147.75

Value

$123.13

PnL

-$24.62

Record

12%

9-64 (73)

AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$179.36

Value

$96.09

PnL

-$83.27

Record

51%

101-96 (197)

yong32<$100

Spirit

Invested

$89.5

Value

$89.98

PnL

+$0.48

Record

16%

5-27 (32)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

15 of 27 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+26 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

76% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSpirit 80% · 5

Aligned

sniperSpirit 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSpirit 75% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpirit 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 76% · 25

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.