Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Power Rangers, while the market favors Nemiga Gaming (100%). 11 of 27 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A

11 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Power Rangers (41%) · Power Rangers at 0.1¢ · $91K held · ends Nov 9

Power Rangers<1¢Nemiga Gaming>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Power Rangers

Consensus Traders

Power Rangers 41%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$91.4K

Combined PnL

$-7.8K

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidPower Rangers at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Power Rangers

11 of 27 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors Nemiga Gaming 100%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Power Rangers0%

Nemiga Gaming100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Power Rangers11 traders

Total Value$41.1K

Total Shares89,398

Combined PnL$-10.4K

Nemiga Gaming16 traders

Total Value$27.6K

Total Shares45,813

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Power Rangers — 41%Nemiga Gaming — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Power Rangers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNemiga Gaming 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpPower Rangers 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNemiga Gaming 56% · 27

Diverging

Top 1000Nemiga Gaming 57% · 28

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Sisyphus-CTR	Power Rangersavg 78.3¢	$22.0K	$15.6K	$-6.3K	55% 850-704 (1554)
SkritopoolniyCTR	Power Rangersavg 47.8¢	$7.9K	$9.3K	+$1.4K	46% 680-798 (1478)
Medo3DCTR	Power Rangersavg 36.1¢	$14.2K	$8.9K	$-5.3K	41% 198-289 (487)
alpheclabs2	Nemiga Gamingavg 39.7¢	$4.2K	$8.5K	+$5.4K	47% 1777-1989 (3766)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 61.3¢	$6.8K	$7.6K	+$742.02	48% 895-955 (1850)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 61.3¢	$5.0K	$4.6K	-$479.49
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 26.4¢	$1.8K	$3.0K	+$1.2K
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 64.8¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$122.1	53% 15728-13882 (29610)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 35.2¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$434.71
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 64.8¢	$2.2K	$1.9K	-$312.61
MA madar78	Nemiga Gamingavg 81¢	$13.9K	$3.5K	+$402.8	67% 87-42 (129)
YA yadens	Nemiga Gamingavg 85¢	$7.8K	$3.4K	$-3.2K	71% 211-87 (298)
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	Power Rangersavg 45.9¢	$5.2K	$3.2K	+$1.3K	64% 131-74 (205)
GX gxxyy	Nemiga Gamingavg 49.2¢	$3.2K	$2.9K	-$300.14	70% 534-233 (767)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 55.4¢	$2.2K	$2.7K	+$433.73	46% 33777-39454 (73231)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 32.1¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$432.15
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 55.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$1.58
maytopmayCTR	Power Rangersavg 82.3¢	$3.8K	$2.6K	$-1.2K	60% 336-227 (563)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	Nemiga Gamingavg 22.8¢	$1.2K	$2.3K	+$1.2K	49% 583-595 (1178)
PL plusti	Nemiga Gamingavg 53¢	$2.6K	$2.3K	-$350	44% 23-29 (52)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 54.7¢	$3.3K	$1.5K	-$36.43	48% 72180-77921 (150101)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 54.7¢	$1.0K	$848.88	-$16.51
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 57.6¢	$679.75	$654.85	-$19.92
SL SlickRick123ARB<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 63.4¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$276.53	47% 6392-7105 (13497)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 63.4¢	$1.5K	$1.0K	-$436.46
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 24.7¢	$128.67	$288.6	+$159.93
CA calculate10	Nemiga Gamingavg 66.5¢	$2.6K	$1.3K	-$772.88	54% 1396-1199 (2595)
VladooosCTR	Power Rangersavg 74¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$2.39	68% 148-70 (218)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 52.4¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$38.58	53% 14837-13046 (27883)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 44.4¢	$526.48	$658.53	+$132.05
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 52.4¢	$621.5	$528.03	-$93.47
GA GaditimaARB<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 68.3¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$336.53	47% 8797-9986 (18783)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 68.3¢	$1.2K	$797.75	-$426.19
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 41.3¢	$259.55	$349.2	+$89.66
VV VVVSSPARB<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 61.2¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$145.25	45% 39-48 (87)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 61.2¢	$766.22	$557.14	-$209.08
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 49.2¢	$483.62	$545.01	+$63.83
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Nemiga Gamingavg 28.4¢	$609.53	$868.25	+$258.72	55% 3932-3278 (7210)
PO PourpelNourpelARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 56.7¢	$624.04	$762.07	+$138.03	51% 706-670 (1376)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 56.7¢	$464.25	$454.44	-$9.8
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 23.1¢	$159.79	$307.63	+$147.83
Hawk.live	Nemiga Gamingavg 51.2¢	$836.41	$726.32	-$110.09	57% 716-547 (1263)
BA BackTestEoCaraio	Nemiga Gamingavg 52.5¢	$10.0K	$706.52	-$437.99	61% 660-425 (1085)

Sisyphus-CTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$22,000.24

Value

$15.6K

PnL

$-6.3K

Record

55%

850-704 (1554)

SkritopoolniyCTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$7,908.65

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

46%

680-798 (1478)

Medo3DCTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$14,248.42

Value

$8.9K

PnL

$-5.3K

Record

41%

198-289 (487)

alpheclabs2

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$4,225.68

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

47%

1777-1989 (3766)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$6,820.3

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$742.02

Record

48%

895-955 (1850)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$5,034.2861.3¢-$479.49

Nemiga Gaming$1,786.0226.4¢+$1.2K

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$3,828.2

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$122.1

Record

53%

15728-13882 (29610)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$1,656.2335.2¢+$434.71

Power Rangers$2,171.9664.8¢-$312.61

madar78

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$13,916.43

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$402.8

Record

67%

87-42 (129)

yadens

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$7,812.79

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

71%

211-87 (298)

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$5,195

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

64%

131-74 (205)

gxxyy

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$3,160.48

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$300.14

Record

70%

534-233 (767)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$2,248.14

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$433.73

Record

46%

33777-39454 (73231)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$1,112.6932.1¢+$432.15

Power Rangers$1,135.4455.4¢+$1.58

maytopmayCTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$3,819.98

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

60%

336-227 (563)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,191.55

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

49%

583-595 (1178)

plusti

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$2,649.99

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$350

Record

44%

23-29 (52)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$3,309.27

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$36.43

Record

48%

72180-77921 (150101)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$1,043.1454.7¢-$16.51

Power Rangers$679.7557.6¢-$19.92

SlickRick123ARB<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,594.11

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$276.53

Record

47%

6392-7105 (13497)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$1,465.4463.4¢-$436.46

Power Rangers$128.6724.7¢+$159.93

calculate10

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$2,630.58

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$772.88

Record

54%

1396-1199 (2595)

VladooosCTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$1,273.17

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$2.39

Record

68%

148-70 (218)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,147.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$38.58

Record

53%

14837-13046 (27883)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$526.4844.4¢+$132.05

Nemiga Gaming$621.552.4¢-$93.47

GaditimaARB<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,483.49

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$336.53

Record

47%

8797-9986 (18783)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$1,223.9468.3¢-$426.19

Power Rangers$259.5541.3¢+$89.66

VVVSSPARB<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,249.84

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$145.25

Record

45%

39-48 (87)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$766.2261.2¢-$209.08

Power Rangers$483.6249.2¢+$63.83

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$609.53

Value

$868.25

PnL

+$258.72

Record

55%

3932-3278 (7210)

PourpelNourpelARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$624.04

Value

$762.07

PnL

+$138.03

Record

51%

706-670 (1376)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$464.2556.7¢-$9.8

Nemiga Gaming$159.7923.1¢+$147.83

Hawk.live

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$836.41

Value

$726.32

PnL

-$110.09

Record

57%

716-547 (1263)

BackTestEoCaraio

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$10,044.39

Value

$706.52

PnL

-$437.99

Record

61%

660-425 (1085)

Research grade

AvoidPower Rangers at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Power Rangers

11 of 27 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors Nemiga Gaming 100%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Power Rangers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNemiga Gaming 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpPower Rangers 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNemiga Gaming 56% · 27

Diverging

Top 1000Nemiga Gaming 57% · 28

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Power Rangers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.