Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Sagan Tosu win on 2026-11-07?
Resolved No. 23% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Yes 23%
$44.6K
$-4.7K
Smart Money Signal
5 of 22 top traders (23%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 49.6¢ | $4.9K | $9.7K | +$4.8K | 53% 62265-54490 (116755) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 49.1¢ | $6.9K | $6.9K | +$3.5K | 49% 1807-1885 (3692) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 54.3¢ | $3.8K | $6.9K | +$3.2K | 50% 1821-1809 (3630) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 54.5¢ | $3.0K | $5.5K | +$2.5K | 49% 1765-1864 (3629) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 52.2¢ | $2.7K | $5.2K | +$2.5K | 50% 28880-28690 (57570) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 50.2¢ | $2.6K | $4.6K | +$2.0K | 50% 21530-21816 (43346) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 52.8¢ | $1.1K | $2.0K | +$504.98 | 49% 14970-15869 (30839) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 92.2¢ | $1.7K | $1.9K | +$144.37 | 51% 38177-37419 (75596) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Noavg 53¢ | $317.99 | $599.98 | +$281.99 | 51% 2054-1984 (4038) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Noavg 48¢ | $269.56 | $561.58 | +$292.3 | 50% 2771-2745 (5516) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 50.2¢ | $205.2 | $408.37 | +$203.16 | 48% 1742-1871 (3613) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 53¢ | $86.61 | $112.47 | +$25.86 | 50% 26374-25995 (52369) |
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $51.23 | $80 | +$28.77 | 62% 1917-1163 (3080) |
WA WagerWizard<$100 | Noavg 51.3¢ | $34.85 | $67.87 | +$33.02 | 84% 15048-2925 (17973) |
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR | Yesavg 49.7¢ | $24.6K | — | $-24.6K | 48% 205-224 (429) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 54.5¢ | $32.7 | $40 | +$9.84 | 58% 47459-34244 (81703) |
 dips.<$100 | Noavg 65.1¢ | $18.01 | $27 | +$8.99 | 47% 10993-12612 (23605) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Noavg 66.1¢ | $10.43 | $15.77 | +$2.14 | 59% 33206-23372 (56578) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.44 | — | -$0.44 | 47% 9528-10656 (20184) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $14.1 | — | -$14.1 | 50% 8428-8461 (16889) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45.2¢ | $4.52 | — | +$0.74 | 53% 2689-2368 (5057) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44.2¢ | $2.99 | — | +$0.03 | 51% 27041-25614 (52655) |
RN1Invested
$4,893.68
Value
$9.7K
PnL
+$4.8K
Record
53%
62265-54490 (116755)
Invested
$6,933.49
Value
$6.9K
PnL
+$3.5K
Record
49%
1807-1885 (3692)
Invested
$3,763.27
Value
$6.9K
PnL
+$3.2K
Record
50%
1821-1809 (3630)
Invested
$3,004.24
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$2.5K
Record
49%
1765-1864 (3629)
Invested
$2,739.64
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$2.5K
Record
50%
28880-28690 (57570)
Invested
$2,644.19
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$2.0K
Record
50%
21530-21816 (43346)
Invested
$1,050.96
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$504.98
Record
49%
14970-15869 (30839)
Invested
$1,719.86
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$144.37
Record
51%
38177-37419 (75596)
Invested
$317.99
Value
$599.98
PnL
+$281.99
Record
51%
2054-1984 (4038)
Invested
$269.56
Value
$561.58
PnL
+$292.3
Record
50%
2771-2745 (5516)
Invested
$205.2
Value
$408.37
PnL
+$203.16
Record
48%
1742-1871 (3613)
Invested
$86.61
Value
$112.47
PnL
+$25.86
Record
50%
26374-25995 (52369)
Invested
$51.23
Value
$80
PnL
+$28.77
Record
62%
1917-1163 (3080)
Invested
$34.85
Value
$67.87
PnL
+$33.02
Record
84%
15048-2925 (17973)
Invested
$24,608.03
Value
—
PnL
$-24.6K
Record
48%
205-224 (429)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$32.7
Value
$40
PnL
+$9.84
Record
58%
47459-34244 (81703)
dips.<$100Invested
$18.01
Value
$27
PnL
+$8.99
Record
47%
10993-12612 (23605)
Invested
$10.43
Value
$15.77
PnL
+$2.14
Record
59%
33206-23372 (56578)
Invested
$0.44
Value
—
PnL
-$0.44
Record
47%
9528-10656 (20184)
Invested
$14.1
Value
—
PnL
-$14.1
Record
50%
8428-8461 (16889)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$4.52
Value
—
PnL
+$0.74
Record
53%
2689-2368 (5057)
Invested
$2.99
Value
—
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
27041-25614 (52655)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
No — $9.7K
Venusian
No — $6.9K
Limousin
No — $6.9K
LightParadox
No — $5.5K
GoalLineGhost
No — $5.2K
omnibus-076daa
No — $4.6K
LuckyLoo
No — $2.0K
SnakeBall
No — $1.9K
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080
No — $599.98
0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3
No — $561.58