Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 30, 2026?

33 of 52 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 74¢ · $175K held · ends Dec 1

Yes74¢No26¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$175.5K

Combined PnL

$-4.3K

Smart Money Entry

80.9¢ → 74¢

-9% since entry · 33 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

33 of 52 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes33 traders

Total Value$159.4K

Total Shares206,373

Combined PnL$-7.4K

No19 traders

Total Value$15.2K

Total Shares67,471

Combined PnL+$3.2K

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

31 traders

Top 2 hold 32%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 32% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (9 on No) and the top 1000 (46 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperYes 75% · 12

Aligned

ctrNo 61% · 23

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 65% · 46

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Dropper	Yesavg 84.3¢	$28.6K	$26.5K	$-2.1K	72% 545-215 (760)
ME Melody626	Yesavg 79.9¢	$25.6K	$25.0K	-$600	57% 467-359 (826)
CI cigarettes	Yesavg 79.4¢	$20.0K	$18.4K	$-1.4K	53% 5995-5369 (11364)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 82.6¢	$14.5K	$12.2K	-$703.3	45% 133-163 (296)
tunatyler	Yesavg 86¢	$12.9K	$11.7K	$-1.2K	60% 566-377 (943)
Car	Yesavg 79.6¢	$13.2K	$10.5K	-$142.65	69% 1400-643 (2043)
pIebe	Yesavg 78¢	$10.4K	$10.4K	+$2.02	— 3-4 (7)
ME MemeKing20	Yesavg 82¢	$8.2K	$7.8K	-$400	—
88 881112	Yesavg 75.9¢	$7.8K	$6.6K	-$166.82	0% 0-417 (417)
eightpenguins	Yesavg 81¢	$5.4K	$5.2K	-$199.98	—
dips.	Yesavg 82.3¢	$4.1K	$3.9K	-$212.61	45% 470-582 (1052)
CH chunqiuCTR	Noavg 17¢	$2.6K	$3.3K	+$808.2	— 0-1 (1)
DragontreeCTR	Noavg 19.8¢	$3.0K	$3.3K	+$378.91	— 0-2 (2)
Jellow2	Yesavg 81¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$96	— 0-1 (1)
MEPPCTR	Noavg 22¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$28.65	— 0-7 (7)
LadyLuck2	Yesavg 86.8¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	-$230.4	— 1-3 (4)
Lolakis	Yesavg 79.1¢	$10.9K	$1.8K	-$27.07	3% 1-31 (32)
CO cocococococo	Yesavg 80.9¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$68.17	13% 5-35 (40)
TY Tyatsmr	Yesavg 74.7¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$76.65	—
aenews2	Yesavg 74¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$89.45	0% 0-127 (127)
DI Ditto321CTR	Noavg 23¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$50.15	—
0X 0x77266604E63f5cAF08D19CaEBae0C563ce064aE	Yesavg 86¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$160	— 1-1 (2)
JJo	Yesavg 82¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$80	— 4-8 (12)
FU Fulgurator	Yesavg 75¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$60	— 2-9 (11)
PI pieped	Yesavg 71¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$140	0% 0-45 (45)

Dropper

Yes

Invested

$28,580.53

Value

$26.5K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

72%

545-215 (760)

Melody626

Yes

Invested

$25,559.95

Value

$25.0K

PnL

-$600

Record

57%

467-359 (826)

cigarettes

Yes

Invested

$19,964.76

Value

$18.4K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

53%

5995-5369 (11364)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$14,455.88

Value

$12.2K

PnL

-$703.3

Record

45%

133-163 (296)

tunatyler

Yes

Invested

$12,899.97

Value

$11.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

60%

566-377 (943)

Car

Yes

Invested

$13,208.59

Value

$10.5K

PnL

-$142.65

Record

69%

1400-643 (2043)

pIebe

Yes

Invested

$10,369.93

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$2.02

Record

—

3-4 (7)

MemeKing20

Yes

Invested

$8,200.04

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$400

Record

—

881112

Yes

Invested

$7,756.02

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$166.82

Record

0-417 (417)

eightpenguins

Yes

Invested

$5,399.46

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$199.98

Record

—

dips.

Yes

Invested

$4,112.61

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$212.61

Record

45%

470-582 (1052)

chunqiuCTR

Invested

$2,641.98

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$808.2

Record

—

0-1 (1)

DragontreeCTR

Invested

$2,964.07

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$378.91

Record

—

0-2 (2)

Jellow2

Yes

Invested

$2,591.99

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$96

Record

—

0-1 (1)

MEPPCTR

Invested

$2,200

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$28.65

Record

—

0-7 (7)

LadyLuck2

Yes

Invested

$2,261.38

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$230.4

Record

—

1-3 (4)

Lolakis

Yes

Invested

$10,866.14

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$27.07

Record

1-31 (32)

cocococococo

Yes

Invested

$1,879.47

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$68.17

Record

13%

5-35 (40)

Tyatsmr

Yes

Invested

$1,708.23

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$76.65

Record

—

aenews2

Yes

Invested

$1,654.75

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$89.45

Record

0-127 (127)

Ditto321CTR

Invested

$1,616.65

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$50.15

Record

—

0x77266604E63f5cAF08D19CaEBae0C563ce064aE

Yes

Invested

$1,720

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$160

Record

—

1-1 (2)

JJo

Yes

Invested

$1,640

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$80

Record

—

4-8 (12)

Fulgurator

Yes

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$60

Record

—

2-9 (11)

pieped

Yes

Invested

$1,419.99

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$140

Record

0-45 (45)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

33 of 52 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

31 traders

Top 2 hold 32%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 32% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (9 on No) and the top 1000 (46 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperYes 75% · 12

Aligned

ctrNo 61% · 23

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 65% · 46

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.