Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?

13 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (59%) · No at 81¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 8

Yes20¢No80¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 59%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.6K

Combined PnL

-$425.91

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 80.5¢

+1% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 22 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$15.6K

Total Shares17,764

Combined PnL-$146.35

Yes9 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares13,678

Combined PnL-$279.56

No — 59%Yes — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 81.1¢	$7.8K	$7.4K	-$404.48	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Noavg 82¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$65.3	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 82¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$38.09	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 18.1¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$156.12	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 73.1¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$194.23	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
AN Anon455	Noavg 69.6¢	$491.49	$451.69	-$39.79	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
MI MinevaJCTR	Yesavg 18¢	$360.94	$330.86	-$30.08	56% 1161-902 (2063)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Noavg 81.1¢	$252.96	$214.42	-$38.54	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
└ No leg	Noavg 81.1¢	$133.68	$137.65	+$3.97
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.6¢	$119.28	$76.78	-$42.5
PT PT-S7	Noavg 72.6¢	$479.69	$214.25	+$59.95	49% 3284-3450 (6734)
SP spyGoodLuck77	Noavg 79¢	$193.25	$204.26	+$11.01	62% 1928-1173 (3101)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Noavg 82.1¢	$168.3	$171.17	+$2.88	58% 3248-2345 (5593)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 83¢	$150.67	$145.97	-$4.7	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ No leg	Noavg 83¢	$113.65	$114.31	+$0.66
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19.3¢	$37.02	$31.66	-$5.36
LI LimousinARB<$100	Yesavg 31.8¢	$143.72	$95	-$48.72	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.8¢	$102.72	$53.25	-$49.47
└ No leg	Noavg 82¢	$41	$41.75	+$0.75
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$105.73	$93.44	-$12.3	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yesavg 23.2¢	$109.22	$77.84	-$31.38	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 27.6¢	$123.61	$73.83	-$49.78	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
dips.<$100	Noavg 82¢	$65.6	$66.8	+$1.2	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 76¢	$59.12	$59.51	+$0.39	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 77.9¢	$23.37	$22.95	-$0.42	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.9¢	$10.38	$9.79	-$0.59	45% 95-117 (212)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$8.96	$9.16	+$0.19	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 66¢	$6.59	$8.24	+$1.65	64% 5377-2997 (8374)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$7.06	$7.54	+$0.48	53% 17085-15197 (32282)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 83¢	$5.72	$5.55	-$0.17	50% 21821-22062 (43883)

Flaznorp

Invested

$7,830.6

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$404.48

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Invested

$3,569.88

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$65.3

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

MadridTime

Invested

$1,930.38

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$38.09

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,860.12

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$156.12

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

38791873984189

Invested

$1,386.33

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$194.23

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Anon455

Invested

$491.49

Value

$451.69

PnL

-$39.79

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

MinevaJCTR

Yes

Invested

$360.94

Value

$330.86

PnL

-$30.08

Record

56%

1161-902 (2063)

VenusianARB<$100

Invested

$252.96

Value

$214.42

PnL

-$38.54

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Both legs:

No$133.6881.1¢+$3.97

Yes$119.2825.6¢-$42.5

PT-S7

Invested

$479.69

Value

$214.25

PnL

+$59.95

Record

49%

3284-3450 (6734)

spyGoodLuck77

Invested

$193.25

Value

$204.26

PnL

+$11.01

Record

62%

1928-1173 (3101)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$168.3

Value

$171.17

PnL

+$2.88

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$150.67

Value

$145.97

PnL

-$4.7

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

Invested

$143.72

Value

$95

PnL

-$48.72

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Both legs:

Yes$102.7231.8¢-$49.47

No$4182¢+$0.75

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$105.73

Value

$93.44

PnL

-$12.3

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yes

Invested

$109.22

Value

$77.84

PnL

-$31.38

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$123.61

Value

$73.83

PnL

-$49.78

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

dips.<$100

Invested

$65.6

Value

$66.8

PnL

+$1.2

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$59.12

Value

$59.51

PnL

+$0.39

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$23.37

Value

$22.95

PnL

-$0.42

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.38

Value

$9.79

PnL

-$0.59

Record

45%

95-117 (212)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.96

Value

$9.16

PnL

+$0.19

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$6.59

Value

$8.24

PnL

+$1.65

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.06

Value

$7.54

PnL

+$0.48

Record

53%

17085-15197 (32282)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$5.72

Value

$5.55

PnL

-$0.17

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 22 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.