Celtics vs. 76ers

27 of 53 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (51%) · Celtics at 55¢ · $696K held · ended Nov 11

Celtics55¢76ers45¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 51%

20 arb excluded

Total Value

$695.7K

Combined PnL

$15.1K

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 54.5¢

+2% since entry · 27 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

27 of 53 top traders (51%)20 arbitrage traders dimmed26 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics55%

76ers46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics27 traders

Total Value$470.2K

Total Shares833,027

Combined PnL+$23.2K

76ers26 traders

Total Value$125.5K

Total Shares287,327

Combined PnL$-8.1K

Celtics — 51%76ers — 49%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

48% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Celtics) and the top 1000 (41 on 76ers) disagree here.

sharp76ers 67% · 3

Diverging

sniperCeltics 80% · 10

Aligned

ctr76ers 55% · 31

Diverging

Hand-pickedCeltics 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 100076ers 51% · 41

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18	Celticsavg 53.7¢	$161.0K	$163.5K	+$2.5K	51% 710-691 (1401)
BR BreakTheBank	Celticsavg 54¢	$97.7K	$116.7K	+$19.0K	42% 574-809 (1383)
nigiri99CTR	76ersavg 46¢	$30.4K	$26.6K	$-2.9K	52% 128-120 (248)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Celticsavg 53¢	$25.0K	$25.7K	+$728.1	51% 3680-3509 (7189)
CH ch27er	Celticsavg 54¢	$24.5K	$24.7K	+$226.85	19% 10-44 (54)
BA bands1	Celticsavg 53¢	$21.2K	$21.6K	+$399.99	50% 331-328 (659)
BO BoggsFromShawshankCTR	76ersavg 46¢	$21.3K	$21.6K	+$232.02	1% 3-383 (386)
HE hewhodoesitCTR	76ersavg 46¢	$18.4K	$18.6K	+$200	— 2-2 (4)
RA Raisuu	Celticsavg 53¢	$15.9K	$15.9K	-$0	60% 21-14 (35)
MU Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100	76ersavg 38.8¢	$14.8K	$15.7K	+$940.44	47% 500-558 (1058)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 38.8¢	$8.3K	$8.8K	+$565.49
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 55.3¢	$6.5K	$6.9K	+$374.95
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Celticsavg 57.7¢	$15.5K	$15.1K	-$480.44	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 57.7¢	$9.4K	$9.2K	-$199.1
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 45.6¢	$6.1K	$5.8K	-$281.35
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Celticsavg 53¢	$12.7K	$12.7K	-$0	0% 1-582 (583)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	76ersavg 46.2¢	$18.1K	$12.4K	+$138.02	51% 299-291 (590)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 46.2¢	$8.3K	$8.4K	+$136.44
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 53¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$1.58
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	76ersavg 43¢	$16.1K	$11.8K	-$427.92	51% 3172-3071 (6243)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 53.5¢	$5.4K	$6.3K	+$910.6
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 43¢	$6.3K	$5.5K	$-1.3K
NS NS13CTR	76ersavg 46¢	$11.9K	$10.7K	$-1.2K	—
Greedo	Celticsavg 53¢	$10.6K	$10.6K	-$0	49% 184-190 (374)
AC Ackbar	Celticsavg 53¢	$10.6K	$10.6K	-$0	— 1-5 (6)
AP AppleTiiime	Celticsavg 52¢	$10.4K	$10.6K	+$200	53% 82-74 (156)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	76ersavg 45.7¢	$13.3K	$10.6K	$-2.8K	54% 1656-1433 (3089)
EdZachary	Celticsavg 59.7¢	$10.4K	$9.8K	-$560.34	2% 2-113 (115)
RN1ARB<$100	Celticsavg 56.1¢	$9.9K	$9.5K	+$367.99	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 56.1¢	$6.6K	$6.4K	-$93.22
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 38.7¢	$2.6K	$3.1K	+$461.22
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Celticsavg 59.6¢	$8.8K	$8.8K	+$32.39	56% 3819-2985 (6804)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 59.6¢	$5.2K	$5.1K	-$100.36
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 40¢	$3.5K	$3.7K	+$132.76
ElonSpamCTR	76ersavg 47.5¢	$9.5K	$8.7K	-$801.47	— 11-8 (19)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	76ersavg 46¢	$7.9K	$8.0K	+$94.38	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 46¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	+$0
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 51.6¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$94.37
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Celticsavg 51¢	$6.8K	$7.1K	+$266.18	54% 514-436 (950)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18

Celtics

Invested

$160,999.88

Value

$163.5K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

51%

710-691 (1401)

BreakTheBank

Celtics

Invested

$97,725.94

Value

$116.7K

PnL

+$19.0K

Record

42%

574-809 (1383)

nigiri99CTR

76ers

Invested

$30,392.61

Value

$26.6K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Celtics

Invested

$25,002.67

Value

$25.7K

PnL

+$728.1

Record

51%

3680-3509 (7189)

ch27er

Celtics

Invested

$24,500

Value

$24.7K

PnL

+$226.85

Record

19%

10-44 (54)

bands1

Celtics

Invested

$21,199.84

Value

$21.6K

PnL

+$399.99

Record

50%

331-328 (659)

BoggsFromShawshankCTR

76ers

Invested

$21,345.52

Value

$21.6K

PnL

+$232.02

Record

3-383 (386)

hewhodoesitCTR

76ers

Invested

$18,400

Value

$18.6K

PnL

+$200

Record

—

2-2 (4)

Raisuu

Celtics

Invested

$15,899.79

Value

$15.9K

PnL

-$0

Record

60%

21-14 (35)

Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$14,793.93

Value

$15.7K

PnL

+$940.44

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

Both legs:

76ers$8,275.8338.8¢+$565.49

Celtics$6,518.1155.3¢+$374.95

takeormakeARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$15,544.78

Value

$15.1K

PnL

-$480.44

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Both legs:

Celtics$9,405.4557.7¢-$199.1

76ers$6,127.245.6¢-$281.35

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Celtics

Invested

$12,719.94

Value

$12.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

1-582 (583)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$18,130.34

Value

$12.4K

PnL

+$138.02

Record

51%

299-291 (590)

Both legs:

76ers$8,311.4846.2¢+$136.44

Celtics$3,971.7953¢+$1.58

6512395314597884ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$16,090.88

Value

$11.8K

PnL

-$427.92

Record

51%

3172-3071 (6243)

Both legs:

Celtics$5,390.8753.5¢+$910.6

76ers$6,346.343¢$-1.3K

NS13CTR

76ers

Invested

$11,902.53

Value

$10.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

—

Greedo

Celtics

Invested

$10,599.99

Value

$10.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

184-190 (374)

Ackbar

Celtics

Invested

$10,599.92

Value

$10.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

—

1-5 (6)

AppleTiiime

Celtics

Invested

$10,399.92

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$200

Record

53%

82-74 (156)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

76ers

Invested

$13,344.03

Value

$10.6K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

54%

1656-1433 (3089)

EdZachary

Celtics

Invested

$10,410.07

Value

$9.8K

PnL

-$560.34

Record

2-113 (115)

RN1ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$9,858.79

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$367.99

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

Both legs:

Celtics$6,629.7556.1¢-$93.22

76ers$2,631.338.7¢+$461.22

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$8,762.68

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$32.39

Record

56%

3819-2985 (6804)

Both legs:

Celtics$5,234.7359.6¢-$100.36

76ers$3,527.9540¢+$132.76

ElonSpamCTR

76ers

Invested

$9,527.08

Value

$8.7K

PnL

-$801.47

Record

—

11-8 (19)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$7,924.37

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$94.38

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Both legs:

76ers$5,89946¢+$0

Celtics$2,025.3751.6¢+$94.37

monkeymashingkeyboard

Celtics

Invested

$6,787.56

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$266.18

Record

54%

514-436 (950)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

27 of 53 top traders (51%)20 arbitrage traders dimmed26 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

48% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Celtics) and the top 1000 (41 on 76ers) disagree here.

sharp76ers 67% · 3

Diverging

sniperCeltics 80% · 10

Aligned

ctr76ers 55% · 31

Diverging

Hand-pickedCeltics 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 100076ers 51% · 41

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.