Celtics vs. Raptors

20 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (65%) · Celtics at 67¢ · $169K held · ends Nov 12

Celtics67¢Raptors33¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 65%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$169.5K

Combined PnL

-$199.53

Smart Money Entry

67.8¢ → 66.5¢

-2% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralCeltics at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

20 of 31 top traders (65%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics67%

Raptors34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors11 traders

Total Value$52.2K

Total Shares159,520

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Celtics20 traders

Total Value$90.7K

Total Shares130,586

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Raptors — 35%Celtics — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperRaptors 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRaptors 82% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 65% · 20

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO ropetardCTR	Raptorsavg 33.8¢	$33.6K	$33.3K	-$250.47	73% 147-55 (202)
HO HomeRunHazard	Celticsavg 66.8¢	$23.1K	$23.1K	-$35.56	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
DA darkumbreon88	Celticsavg 71.7¢	$21.2K	$20.2K	-$957.96	61% 925-593 (1518)
MU Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100	Celticsavg 65¢	$14.8K	$15.5K	+$781.62	48% 536-588 (1124)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 65¢	$11.3K	$11.9K	+$608.89
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 30¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$172.73
IM imjustkenisghey	Celticsavg 66¢	$14.8K	$14.8K	+$25.62	52% 14-13 (27)
drainedandpoorCTR	Raptorsavg 28¢	$8.6K	$9.5K	+$916.78	47% 414-462 (876)
HI hi774c	Celticsavg 66.4¢	$6.9K	$6.7K	-$189.36	14% 76-471 (547)
FO forecastication4	Celticsavg 65.9¢	$5.2K	$5.0K	-$113.32	18% 48-217 (265)
PU purplegatto	Celticsavg 69.7¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	-$36.51	69% 2586-1181 (3767)
VeryLucky888	Celticsavg 66.8¢	$9.5K	$3.5K	+$78.79	51% 455-429 (884)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Celticsavg 67.8¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$11.78	59% 3477-2367 (5844)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 67.8¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$67.5
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 32.7¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$55.72
GC GC-PARB<$100	Celticsavg 67.8¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$17.5	20% 98-381 (479)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 67.8¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$67.5
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 32.8¢	$984.99	$1.0K	+$50
FL Flaznorp	Celticsavg 66¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$63.38	51% 1843-1797 (3640)
LI LimousinCTR	Raptorsavg 30.3¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$255.21	30% 375-876 (1251)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Celticsavg 66.6¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$40.03	45% 263-319 (582)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 66.6¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$28.76
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 35¢	$854.57	$843.3	-$11.27
nehcnehc	Celticsavg 66¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$18.92	25% 21-63 (84)
ET Ethanael02	Celticsavg 66¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$17.86	66% 98-50 (148)
RA RaisuuCTR	Raptorsavg 29¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$150.21	58% 23-17 (40)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Celticsavg 67.4¢	$2.6K	$2.1K	-$37.4	48% 1363-1480 (2843)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 67.4¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$54.61
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 33.5¢	$682.99	$704.08	+$17.21
BI biying88888	Celticsavg 65¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$14.68	37% 115-200 (315)
SE sentrio	Celticsavg 66.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$13.92	37% 346-578 (924)
AP AppleTiiimeCTR	Raptorsavg 27¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$150.48	52% 86-78 (164)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Raptorsavg 29.9¢	$773.47	$892.24	+$118.77	31% 381-851 (1232)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Raptorsavg 31¢	$850.43	$850.43	+$0	30% 378-870 (1248)
RI Richidd	Celticsavg 71¢	$800	$777.46	-$22.54	52% 83-76 (159)

ropetardCTR

Raptors

Invested

$33,591.91

Value

$33.3K

PnL

-$250.47

Record

73%

147-55 (202)

HomeRunHazard

Celtics

Invested

$23,142.22

Value

$23.1K

PnL

-$35.56

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

darkumbreon88

Celtics

Invested

$21,184.34

Value

$20.2K

PnL

-$957.96

Record

61%

925-593 (1518)

Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$14,762.52

Value

$15.5K

PnL

+$781.62

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

Both legs:

Celtics$11,30865¢+$608.89

Raptors$3,454.5330¢+$172.73

imjustkenisghey

Celtics

Invested

$14,778.79

Value

$14.8K

PnL

+$25.62

Record

52%

14-13 (27)

drainedandpoorCTR

Raptors

Invested

$8,556.64

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$916.78

Record

47%

414-462 (876)

hi774c

Celtics

Invested

$6,903.91

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$189.36

Record

14%

76-471 (547)

forecastication4

Celtics

Invested

$5,163.02

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$113.32

Record

18%

48-217 (265)

purplegatto

Celtics

Invested

$3,990.59

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$36.51

Record

69%

2586-1181 (3767)

VeryLucky888

Celtics

Invested

$9,534.76

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$78.79

Record

51%

455-429 (884)

NM-PARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$3,038.43

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$11.78

Record

59%

3477-2367 (5844)

Both legs:

Celtics$2,032.567.8¢-$67.5

Raptors$1,005.9332.7¢+$55.72

GC-PARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$3,017.49

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$17.5

Record

20%

98-381 (479)

Both legs:

Celtics$2,032.567.8¢-$67.5

Raptors$984.9932.8¢+$50

Flaznorp

Celtics

Invested

$2,870.42

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$63.38

Record

51%

1843-1797 (3640)

LimousinCTR

Raptors

Invested

$2,401.26

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$255.21

Record

30%

375-876 (1251)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$2,614.27

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$40.03

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

Both legs:

Celtics$1,759.766.6¢-$28.76

Raptors$854.5735¢-$11.27

nehcnehc

Celtics

Invested

$2,498.07

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$18.92

Record

25%

21-63 (84)

Ethanael02

Celtics

Invested

$2,358

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$17.86

Record

66%

98-50 (148)

RaisuuCTR

Raptors

Invested

$2,178.02

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$150.21

Record

58%

23-17 (40)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$2,567.38

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$37.4

Record

48%

1363-1480 (2843)

Both legs:

Celtics$1,461.867.4¢-$54.61

Raptors$682.9933.5¢+$17.21

biying88888

Celtics

Invested

$1,908.4

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$14.68

Record

37%

115-200 (315)

sentrio

Celtics

Invested

$1,874.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$13.92

Record

37%

346-578 (924)

AppleTiiimeCTR

Raptors

Invested

$1,015.73

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$150.48

Record

52%

86-78 (164)

MadridTimeCTR

Raptors

Invested

$773.47

Value

$892.24

PnL

+$118.77

Record

31%

381-851 (1232)

LightParadoxCTR

Raptors

Invested

$850.43

Value

$850.43

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

378-870 (1248)

Richidd

Celtics

Invested

$800

Value

$777.46

PnL

-$22.54

Record

52%

83-76 (159)

Research grade

NeutralCeltics at 67%

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

20 of 31 top traders (65%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperRaptors 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRaptors 82% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 65% · 20

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.