Nuggets vs. Grizzlies

18 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (60%) · Nuggets at 71¢ · $723K held · ended Nov 12

Nuggets71¢Grizzlies29¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 60%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$722.8K

Combined PnL

$12.6K

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 70.5¢

+17% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

18 of 30 top traders (60%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets71%

Grizzlies30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets18 traders

Total Value$422.7K

Total Shares685,263

Combined PnL+$10.4K

Grizzlies12 traders

Total Value$284.2K

Total Shares706,990

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Nuggets — 60%Grizzlies — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

68% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperNuggets 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNuggets 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNuggets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nuggets 67% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SA Sassy-Bucket	Nuggetsavg 60¢	$360.0K	$369.0K	+$9.0K	30% 6-14 (20)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Grizzliesavg 40¢	$265.6K	$268.9K	+$3.3K	42% 583-818 (1401)
DA darkumbreon88	Nuggetsavg 60¢	$13.7K	$13.7K	+$0	61% 929-595 (1524)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Nuggetsavg 60¢	$12.1K	$12.1K	+$0	48% 536-588 (1124)
ET Ethanael02	Nuggetsavg 60¢	$7.6K	$8.9K	+$1.3K	66% 98-50 (148)
AN Anon455	Nuggetsavg 63.9¢	$6.4K	$6.3K	-$37.53	45% 183-223 (406)
SI Siddhartha1CTR	Grizzliesavg 40¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$74.79	60% 94-62 (156)
WL Wldntulike2know	Nuggetsavg 60¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$0	3% 5-152 (157)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 63.3¢	$5.0K	$5.2K	+$217.13	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 63.3¢	$3.7K	$3.9K	+$189.12
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 32.8¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$28.01
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Grizzliesavg 36.4¢	$5.9K	$4.8K	$-1.1K	14% 18-113 (131)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 59¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$69.75	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 59¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$27.08
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 39¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$42.67
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 64¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$60.76	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 64¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$60.84
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 33.5¢	$993.87	$993.79	-$0.08
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Grizzliesavg 39¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$50.52	54% 521-441 (962)
0X 0xfFFF6537	Nuggetsavg 65.5¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$49.01	25% 22-66 (88)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 64.5¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$45	55% 719-584 (1303)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 64.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$40
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 33¢	$330	$335	+$5
VeryLucky888	Nuggetsavg 59¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$20	52% 497-452 (949)
RN1	Nuggetsavg 66.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$26.75	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
BI big8betz	Nuggetsavg 61¢	$1,000	$967.21	-$32.79	51% 69-67 (136)
TA takeormakeCTR	Grizzliesavg 40¢	$712.4	$712.4	-$0	58% 3212-2312 (5524)
OJ ojgCTR	Grizzliesavg 34.4¢	$746.82	$628.76	-$99.56	43% 140-183 (323)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 59.4¢	$621.56	$609.68	-$11.87	47% 299-342 (641)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 59.4¢	$382.74	$379.98	-$2.76
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 41.6¢	$238.82	$229.7	-$9.12
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 68¢	$582.03	$588.43	+$15.81	56% 3875-3035 (6910)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 68¢	$356.13	$369.23	+$12.81
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 29.1¢	$216.2	$219.2	+$3
BI BillBenter2026	Nuggetsavg 61.5¢	$395.94	$454.02	+$58.08	24% 156-502 (658)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Grizzliesavg 33.8¢	$377.91	$330.26	-$47.66	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Grizzliesavg 40¢	$320	$324	+$4	15% 150-841 (991)

Sassy-Bucket

Nuggets

Invested

$360,000

Value

$369.0K

PnL

+$9.0K

Record

30%

6-14 (20)

BreakTheBankCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$265,559.12

Value

$268.9K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

42%

583-818 (1401)

darkumbreon88

Nuggets

Invested

$13,735.17

Value

$13.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

929-595 (1524)

Multicoloured-Serf

Nuggets

Invested

$12,067

Value

$12.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

Ethanael02

Nuggets

Invested

$7,554

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

66%

98-50 (148)

Anon455

Nuggets

Invested

$6,384.22

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$37.53

Record

45%

183-223 (406)

Siddhartha1CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$5,982.9

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$74.79

Record

60%

94-62 (156)

Wldntulike2know

Nuggets

Invested

$6,000

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

5-152 (157)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$5,015.99

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$217.13

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

Both legs:

Nuggets$3,684.2363.3¢+$189.12

Grizzlies$1,331.7632.8¢+$28.01

ubetteruuuuCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$5,900

Value

$4.8K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

14%

18-113 (131)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$4,305.2

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$69.75

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

Both legs:

Nuggets$3,195.8659¢+$27.08

Grizzlies$1,109.3539¢+$42.67

FlaznorpARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$2,534.71

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$60.76

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

Both legs:

Nuggets$1,540.8564¢+$60.84

Grizzlies$993.8733.5¢-$0.08

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,970.47

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$50.52

Record

54%

521-441 (962)

0xfFFF6537

Nuggets

Invested

$1,676.86

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$49.01

Record

25%

22-66 (88)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$1,620

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$45

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Both legs:

Nuggets$1,29064.5¢+$40

Grizzlies$33033¢+$5

VeryLucky888

Nuggets

Invested

$1,179.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$20

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

RN1

Nuggets

Invested

$1,202.02

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$26.75

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

big8betz

Nuggets

Invested

$1,000

Value

$967.21

PnL

-$32.79

Record

51%

69-67 (136)

takeormakeCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$712.4

Value

$712.4

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

3212-2312 (5524)

ojgCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$746.82

Value

$628.76

PnL

-$99.56

Record

43%

140-183 (323)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$621.56

Value

$609.68

PnL

-$11.87

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

Both legs:

Nuggets$382.7459.4¢-$2.76

Grizzlies$238.8241.6¢-$9.12

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$582.03

Value

$588.43

PnL

+$15.81

Record

56%

3875-3035 (6910)

Both legs:

Nuggets$356.1368¢+$12.81

Grizzlies$216.229.1¢+$3

BillBenter2026

Nuggets

Invested

$395.94

Value

$454.02

PnL

+$58.08

Record

24%

156-502 (658)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$377.91

Value

$330.26

PnL

-$47.66

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$320

Value

$324

PnL

+$4

Record

15%

150-841 (991)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

18 of 30 top traders (60%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

68% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperNuggets 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNuggets 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNuggets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nuggets 67% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.