Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Lakers (59%). 15 of 24 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Lakers (-12.5)

15 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (63%) · Kings at 42¢ · $239K held · ended Nov 5

Lakers59¢Kings41¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 63%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$239.1K

Combined PnL

$7.8K

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 41.5¢

-19% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

15 of 24 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 59%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers59%

Kings42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings15 traders

Total Value$166.8K

Total Shares285,840

Combined PnL+$7.1K

Lakers9 traders

Total Value$60.5K

Total Shares115,835

Combined PnL+$699.7

Kings — 63%Lakers — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKings 71% · 7

Aligned

sharpKings 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrKings 53% · 17

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 58% · 24

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO googleplayCTR	Kingsavg 51.6¢	$67.8K	$67.6K	-$189.82	50% 56-55 (111)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Kingsavg 52.2¢	$41.8K	$52.0K	-$399.43	53% 644-569 (1213)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Kingsavg 50¢	$12.8K	$16.7K	+$3.9K	48% 317-345 (662)
0X 0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814	Lakersavg 48¢	$11.0K	$12.1K	-$114.62	46% 215-249 (464)
IA ianf2026	Lakersavg 50.5¢	$11.4K	$11.8K	-$480.96	49% 98-103 (201)
AY ay118	Lakersavg 49.1¢	$9.3K	$10.0K	+$527.72	42% 45-62 (107)
FY FYYY0689	Lakersavg 48¢	$8.9K	$8.7K	-$279.23	47% 36-41 (77)
HA hang808	Lakersavg 49¢	$7.8K	$8.5K	+$640	41% 155-226 (381)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Kingsavg 51¢	$6.1K	$7.8K	+$59.79	54% 18102-15230 (33332)
AC AckbarCTR	Kingsavg 51¢	$5.1K	$6.5K	+$1.4K	50% 20-20 (40)
PP ppku6298	Lakersavg 49.1¢	$5.1K	$5.5K	-$47.64	44% 110-139 (249)
AP AppleTiiimeCTR	Kingsavg 51¢	$5.1K	$5.0K	-$100	55% 62-50 (112)
HI hi774cCTR	Kingsavg 51¢	$3.4K	$4.4K	+$940.45	50% 4991-4923 (9914)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Kingsavg 47.6¢	$3.2K	$4.3K	+$1.0K	46% 1459-1718 (3177)
AN analdesutructor	Lakersavg 51.2¢	$3.4K	$3.9K	+$454.66	52% 182-166 (348)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Kingsavg 51.8¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$171.56	51% 3617-3540 (7157)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 51.8¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$441.54
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 48¢	$996.84	$726.87	-$269.98
NM NM-PARB<$100	Lakersavg 48.2¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$7.61	63% 9246-5377 (14623)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 50.7¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$337.61
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 48.2¢	$1.2K	$875	-$330
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR	Kingsavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$389.31	39% 433-689 (1122)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Kingsavg 40.9¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$102.89	51% 25264-24010 (49274)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 40.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$34.16
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 48.8¢	$364.54	$433.28	+$68.73
SE sentrioARB<$100	Lakersavg 48¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$225.32	50% 25689-25377 (51066)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 48¢	$791.2	$873.61	+$82.42
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 51.7¢	$557.36	$700.27	+$142.9
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Lakersavg 55.7¢	$3.1K	$1.4K	$-1.0K	50% 4335-4280 (8615)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 55.7¢	$1.6K	$976.2	-$576.7
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 67¢	$394.97	$383.17	-$453.66
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Kingsavg 51.4¢	$1.0K	$837.5	-$10.14	48% 60430-65044 (125474)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 51.4¢	$569.47	$465.06	-$96.19
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 44.6¢	$286.39	$372.43	+$86.04
RN1ARB<$100	Lakersavg 48¢	$612.5	$722.5	+$110	53% 60814-53199 (114013)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 48¢	$360	$397.5	+$37.5
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 50.5¢	$252.5	$325	+$72.5
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Kingsavg 52¢	$208	$260	+$52	51% 1871-1806 (3677)
nigiri99CTR	Kingsavg 53.2¢	$208.2	$254.15	+$45.95	46% 8511-10078 (18589)

googleplayCTR

Kings

Invested

$67,759.13

Value

$67.6K

PnL

-$189.82

Record

50%

56-55 (111)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Kings

Invested

$41,775.89

Value

$52.0K

PnL

-$399.43

Record

53%

644-569 (1213)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Kings

Invested

$12,838.91

Value

$16.7K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

48%

317-345 (662)

0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814

Lakers

Invested

$11,003.52

Value

$12.1K

PnL

-$114.62

Record

46%

215-249 (464)

ianf2026

Lakers

Invested

$11,382.89

Value

$11.8K

PnL

-$480.96

Record

49%

98-103 (201)

ay118

Lakers

Invested

$9,311.15

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$527.72

Record

42%

45-62 (107)

FYYY0689

Lakers

Invested

$8,935.98

Value

$8.7K

PnL

-$279.23

Record

47%

36-41 (77)

hang808

Lakers

Invested

$7,840

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$640

Record

41%

155-226 (381)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Kings

Invested

$6,098.4

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$59.79

Record

54%

18102-15230 (33332)

AckbarCTR

Kings

Invested

$5,100

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

50%

20-20 (40)

ppku6298

Lakers

Invested

$5,144.05

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$47.64

Record

44%

110-139 (249)

AppleTiiimeCTR

Kings

Invested

$5,100

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$100

Record

55%

62-50 (112)

hi774cCTR

Kings

Invested

$3,425.92

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$940.45

Record

50%

4991-4923 (9914)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Kings

Invested

$3,234.92

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

46%

1459-1718 (3177)

analdesutructor

Lakers

Invested

$3,415.71

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$454.66

Record

52%

182-166 (348)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$2,736.97

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$171.56

Record

51%

3617-3540 (7157)

Both legs:

Kings$1,740.1351.8¢+$441.54

Lakers$996.8448¢-$269.98

NM-PARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$2,400.02

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$7.61

Record

63%

9246-5377 (14623)

Both legs:

Kings$1,195.0350.7¢+$337.61

Lakers$1,204.9948.2¢-$330

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR

Kings

Invested

$1,560.68

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$389.31

Record

39%

433-689 (1122)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$1,619.01

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$102.89

Record

51%

25264-24010 (49274)

Both legs:

Kings$1,254.4740.9¢+$34.16

Lakers$364.5448.8¢+$68.73

sentrioARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$1,348.56

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$225.32

Record

50%

25689-25377 (51066)

Both legs:

Lakers$791.248¢+$82.42

Kings$557.3651.7¢+$142.9

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$3,086.52

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

50%

4335-4280 (8615)

Both legs:

Lakers$1,552.8955.7¢-$576.7

Kings$394.9767¢-$453.66

38791873984189ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$1,025.33

Value

$837.5

PnL

-$10.14

Record

48%

60430-65044 (125474)

Both legs:

Kings$569.4751.4¢-$96.19

Lakers$286.3944.6¢+$86.04

RN1ARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$612.5

Value

$722.5

PnL

+$110

Record

53%

60814-53199 (114013)

Both legs:

Lakers$36048¢+$37.5

Kings$252.550.5¢+$72.5

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Kings

Invested

$208

Value

$260

PnL

+$52

Record

51%

1871-1806 (3677)

nigiri99CTR

Kings

Invested

$208.2

Value

$254.15

PnL

+$45.95

Record

46%

8511-10078 (18589)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

15 of 24 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 59%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKings 71% · 7

Aligned

sharpKings 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrKings 53% · 17

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 58% · 24

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.