Spread: Heat (-9.5)

9 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (43%) · Jazz at 54¢ · $158K held · ends Nov 11

Heat47¢Jazz53¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 43%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$158.2K

Combined PnL

$3.4K

Smart Money Entry

56.3¢ → 53.5¢

-5% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

9 of 21 top traders (43%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat47%

Jazz54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz9 traders

Total Value$39.1K

Total Shares66,414

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Heat12 traders

Total Value$28.3K

Total Shares63,892

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Jazz — 43%Heat — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

45% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jazz) and the top 1000 (19 on Heat) disagree here.

whaleJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHeat 63% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 58% · 19

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Jazzavg 57.3¢	$56.4K	$55.0K	$-1.4K	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 57.3¢	$30.0K	$27.5K	$-2.5K
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 45.6¢	$26.4K	$27.5K	+$1.1K
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Jazzavg 58¢	$18.0K	$18.6K	+$620.94	51% 3680-3509 (7189)
RO ropetardCTR	Heatavg 43.1¢	$29.5K	$14.9K	+$2.5K	71% 135-55 (190)
HI hi774cARB<$100	Jazzavg 58.5¢	$14.4K	$14.0K	-$408.93	8% 37-422 (459)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 58.5¢	$10.1K	$10.0K	-$169.67
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 45¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$239.26
nigiri99ARB<$100	Jazzavg 58.2¢	$10.9K	$10.4K	-$480.72	52% 128-120 (248)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 46.8¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	-$36.01
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 58.2¢	$5.5K	$5.1K	-$444.71
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Heatavg 45¢	$7.6K	$6.8K	-$843.77	47% 500-558 (1058)
SU SunlineTicker	Jazzavg 56.3¢	$6.8K	$6.5K	-$336.5	70% 1655-702 (2357)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Jazzavg 51¢	$4.4K	$5.2K	+$772.66	54% 514-436 (950)
FO forecastication4	Jazzavg 57¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$27.33	11% 24-189 (213)
IA ianf2026CTR	Heatavg 40¢	$3.2K	$3.8K	+$526.5	9% 8-79 (87)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Jazzavg 57.7¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$85.72	60% 3444-2339 (5783)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 57.7¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$8.5
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 45.9¢	$1.0K	$962.5	-$77.22
MA MAGATheeStallion	Jazzavg 54¢	$3.0K	$3.3K	+$333.64	1% 1-170 (171)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Jazzavg 58.1¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$96.15	16% 67-351 (418)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 58.1¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$14.35
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 46.1¢	$1.1K	$992.99	-$110.5
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Jazzavg 57.9¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$90.7	48% 947-1017 (1964)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 57.9¢	$1.0K	$940.8	-$77.71
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 46.9¢	$821.84	$814.1	-$12.98
SE sentrioARB<$100	Jazzavg 55.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$19.77	34% 233-457 (690)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 55.4¢	$914.65	$990.7	+$76.05
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 47¢	$377.85	$321.57	-$56.28
VE VenusianCTR	Heatavg 45.1¢	$737.3	$792.84	+$55.54	28% 278-729 (1007)
LI LimousinCTR	Heatavg 46¢	$850.71	$739.74	-$110.96	28% 284-730 (1014)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Heatavg 47¢	$856.4	$728.85	-$127.55	28% 274-715 (989)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Jazzavg 56¢	$8.9K	$573.03	-$449.41	51% 299-291 (590)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 46.1¢	$285.09	$287.52	-$5.79
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 56¢	$298.66	$285.5	-$443.61
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Jazzavg 57.8¢	$539.08	$521.59	-$17.49	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 57.8¢	$328.86	$327.37	-$1.49
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 46¢	$210.22	$194.23	-$16
RollAwayTheDew	Jazzavg 60¢	$417	$417	+$0	3% 7-227 (234)
GA GaditimaCTR	Heatavg 44¢	$440	$400	-$40	—
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Heatavg 47.4¢	$361.76	$345.8	-$15.95	48% 190-206 (396)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 47.4¢	$201.14	$197.49	-$3.65
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 57.9¢	$160.62	$148.31	-$12.3
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Jazzavg 52¢	$208	$240	+$32	10% 88-785 (873)
OM omnibus-076daa	Jazzavg 52¢	$194.52	$224.45	+$29.93	39% 233-357 (590)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$56,385.48

Value

$55.0K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Both legs:

Jazz$30,00057.3¢$-2.5K

Heat$26,385.4845.6¢+$1.1K

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Jazz

Invested

$18,007.27

Value

$18.6K

PnL

+$620.94

Record

51%

3680-3509 (7189)

ropetardCTR

Heat

Invested

$29,509.94

Value

$14.9K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

71%

135-55 (190)

hi774cARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$14,446.95

Value

$14.0K

PnL

-$408.93

Record

37-422 (459)

Both legs:

Jazz$10,140.3158.5¢-$169.67

Heat$4,306.6445¢-$239.26

nigiri99ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$10,893.64

Value

$10.4K

PnL

-$480.72

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

Both legs:

Heat$5,349.146.8¢-$36.01

Jazz$5,536.3958.2¢-$444.71

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Heat

Invested

$7,636.33

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$843.77

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

SunlineTicker

Jazz

Invested

$6,793.1

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$336.5

Record

70%

1655-702 (2357)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Jazz

Invested

$4,380.09

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$772.66

Record

54%

514-436 (950)

forecastication4

Jazz

Invested

$4,492.29

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$27.33

Record

11%

24-189 (213)

ianf2026CTR

Heat

Invested

$3,240

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$526.5

Record

8-79 (87)

NM-PARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$3,808.22

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$85.72

Record

60%

3444-2339 (5783)

Both legs:

Jazz$2,768.557.7¢-$8.5

Heat$1,039.7245.9¢-$77.22

MAGATheeStallion

Jazz

Invested

$2,999.7

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$333.64

Record

1-170 (171)

GC-PARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2,979.1

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$96.15

Record

16%

67-351 (418)

Both legs:

Jazz$1,875.6258.1¢+$14.35

Heat$1,103.4846.1¢-$110.5

38791873984189ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$1,927.56

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$90.7

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

Both legs:

Jazz$1,018.2157.9¢-$77.71

Heat$821.8446.9¢-$12.98

sentrioARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$1,292.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$19.77

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

Both legs:

Jazz$914.6555.4¢+$76.05

Heat$377.8547¢-$56.28

VenusianCTR

Heat

Invested

$737.3

Value

$792.84

PnL

+$55.54

Record

28%

278-729 (1007)

LimousinCTR

Heat

Invested

$850.71

Value

$739.74

PnL

-$110.96

Record

28%

284-730 (1014)

LightParadoxCTR

Heat

Invested

$856.4

Value

$728.85

PnL

-$127.55

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$8,862.43

Value

$573.03

PnL

-$449.41

Record

51%

299-291 (590)

Both legs:

Heat$285.0946.1¢-$5.79

Jazz$298.6656¢-$443.61

FlaznorpARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$539.08

Value

$521.59

PnL

-$17.49

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

Both legs:

Jazz$328.8657.8¢-$1.49

Heat$210.2246¢-$16

RollAwayTheDew

Jazz

Invested

$417

Value

$417

PnL

+$0

Record

7-227 (234)

GaditimaCTR

Heat

Invested

$440

Value

$400

PnL

-$40

Record

—

SnakeBallARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$361.76

Value

$345.8

PnL

-$15.95

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

Both legs:

Heat$201.1447.4¢-$3.65

Jazz$160.6257.9¢-$12.3

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Jazz

Invested

$208

Value

$240

PnL

+$32

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

omnibus-076daa

Jazz

Invested

$194.52

Value

$224.45

PnL

+$29.93

Record

39%

233-357 (590)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

9 of 21 top traders (43%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

45% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jazz) and the top 1000 (19 on Heat) disagree here.

whaleJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHeat 63% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 58% · 19

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.