Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Spurs, while the market favors Bulls (53%). 10 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Spurs (-15.5)

10 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (48%) · Spurs at 48¢ · $286K held · ended Nov 12

Spurs48¢Bulls52¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 48%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$286.4K

Combined PnL

$-5.3K

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 47.5¢

-4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

10 of 21 top traders (48%)Underdog side (market favors Bulls 53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs48%

Bulls53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs10 traders

Total Value$198.9K

Total Shares415,296

Combined PnL$-8.3K

Bulls11 traders

Total Value$84.7K

Total Shares161,787

Combined PnL+$2.9K

Spurs — 48%Bulls — 52%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

48% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Spurs) and the top 1000 (20 on Bulls) disagree here.

whaleBulls 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperBulls 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrSpurs 53% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 55% · 20

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RJ RJW1CTR	Spursavg 49.7¢	$185.4K	$177.1K	$-8.3K	47% 118-132 (250)
GO googleplay	Bullsavg 50.4¢	$61.8K	$64.5K	+$2.6K	50% 62-63 (125)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Spursavg 48.9¢	$7.7K	$7.7K	-$36.85	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
SI Siddhartha1CTR	Spursavg 49¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	-$0	60% 94-62 (156)
LI LightParadox	Bullsavg 50¢	$5.5K	$5.8K	+$275	31% 412-918 (1330)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Bullsavg 52¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$51.79	48% 536-588 (1124)
QI qinlaobanCTR	Spursavg 49¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	-$0	3% 5-168 (173)
BA bands1	Bullsavg 50.9¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$34.96	50% 335-331 (666)
MA MAGATheeStallion	Bullsavg 51.1¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$5.56	2% 3-170 (173)
PP ppku6298CTR	Spursavg 49¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$0	5% 5-103 (108)
JU justwins	Bullsavg 51¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0	50% 110-110 (220)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Spursavg 49¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0.08	59% 3478-2370 (5848)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 49¢	$804.6	$804.68	+$0.08
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 51¢	$535.5	$535.5	+$0
VeryLucky888CTR	Spursavg 48.5¢	$1.8K	$1.0K	+$1.86	52% 497-452 (949)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Spursavg 48.7¢	$998.91	$1.0K	+$3.5	20% 99-384 (483)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 48.7¢	$633.5	$637	+$3.5
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 51¢	$365.41	$365.41	+$0
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Bullsavg 53¢	$1.0K	$972.06	-$38.12	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
AN Anon455CTR	Spursavg 49¢	$490	$490	-$0	45% 183-223 (406)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bullsavg 50.6¢	$751.2	$463.61	+$7.85	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 50.6¢	$247.8	$254.81	+$8.42
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 48.1¢	$209.16	$208.81	-$0.57
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Bullsavg 51¢	$408	$408	+$0	15% 150-841 (991)
VE VenusianCTR	Spursavg 47¢	$160.9	$167.74	+$6.85	31% 410-923 (1333)
0xheavy888CTR	Spursavg 49¢	$122.5	$122.5	-$0	55% 205-165 (370)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Spursavg 47.6¢	$53.78	$55.37	+$1.59	67% 1661-814 (2475)
SE sentrio<$100	Bullsavg 52¢	$49.6	$48.65	-$0.95	39% 394-619 (1013)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bullsavg 50.8¢	$87.84	$36.11	+$1.64	49% 692-733 (1425)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Bullsavg 51.5¢	$5.15	$5.1	-$0.05	34% 327-634 (961)

RJW1CTR

Spurs

Invested

$185,412.94

Value

$177.1K

PnL

$-8.3K

Record

47%

118-132 (250)

googleplay

Bulls

Invested

$61,831

Value

$64.5K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

50%

62-63 (125)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Spurs

Invested

$7,749.37

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$36.85

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

Siddhartha1CTR

Spurs

Invested

$5,833.33

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$0

Record

60%

94-62 (156)

LightParadox

Bulls

Invested

$5,499.94

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$275

Record

31%

412-918 (1330)

Multicoloured-Serf

Bulls

Invested

$5,385.66

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$51.79

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

qinlaobanCTR

Spurs

Invested

$3,920

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$0

Record

5-168 (173)

bands1

Bulls

Invested

$3,046.72

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$34.96

Record

50%

335-331 (666)

MAGATheeStallion

Bulls

Invested

$2,999.36

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$5.56

Record

3-170 (173)

ppku6298CTR

Spurs

Invested

$2,450

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

5-103 (108)

justwins

Bulls

Invested

$1,491.87

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

110-110 (220)

NM-PARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$1,340.1

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0.08

Record

59%

3478-2370 (5848)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,786.3

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$1.86

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

GC-PARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$998.91

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$3.5

Record

20%

99-384 (483)

Both legs:

Spurs$633.548.7¢+$3.5

Bulls$365.4151¢+$0

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Bulls

Invested

$1,010.18

Value

$972.06

PnL

-$38.12

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

Anon455CTR

Spurs

Invested

$490

Value

$490

PnL

-$0

Record

45%

183-223 (406)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$751.2

Value

$463.61

PnL

+$7.85

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Both legs:

Bulls$247.850.6¢+$8.42

Spurs$209.1648.1¢-$0.57

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Bulls

Invested

$408

Value

$408

PnL

+$0

Record

15%

150-841 (991)

VenusianCTR

Spurs

Invested

$160.9

Value

$167.74

PnL

+$6.85

Record

31%

410-923 (1333)

0xheavy888CTR

Spurs

Invested

$122.5

Value

$122.5

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

RLWGCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$53.78

Value

$55.37

PnL

+$1.59

Record

67%

1661-814 (2475)

sentrio<$100

Bulls

Invested

$49.6

Value

$48.65

PnL

-$0.95

Record

39%

394-619 (1013)

Pan9X<$100

Bulls

Invested

$87.84

Value

$36.11

PnL

+$1.64

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

ameisgoat11<$100

Bulls

Invested

$5.15

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0.05

Record

34%

327-634 (961)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

10 of 21 top traders (48%)Underdog side (market favors Bulls 53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

48% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Spurs) and the top 1000 (20 on Bulls) disagree here.

whaleBulls 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperBulls 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrSpurs 53% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 55% · 20

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.