Spread: Giants (-4.5)

16 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (70%) · Eagles at 76¢ · $261K held · ended Nov 8

Giants25¢Eagles75¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eagles

Consensus Traders

Eagles 70%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$260.8K

Combined PnL

$-4.5K

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 75.5¢

+22% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

16 of 23 top traders (70%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giants25%

Eagles76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eagles16 traders

Total Value$177.0K

Total Shares248,131

Combined PnL+$17.3K

Giants7 traders

Total Value$81.2K

Total Shares279,344

Combined PnL$-21.8K

Eagles — 70%Giants — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

68% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrEagles 65% · 20

Aligned

Hand-pickedEagles 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Eagles 67% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Eaglesavg 64.3¢	$76.0K	$82.7K	+$6.7K	53% 6640-5923 (12563)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Giantsavg 35.8¢	$80.1K	$67.0K	$-13.0K	41% 643-941 (1584)
BI biying88888	Eaglesavg 64¢	$23.6K	$25.8K	+$2.2K	48% 233-252 (485)
HO HomeRunHazard	Eaglesavg 58¢	$16.9K	$22.1K	+$5.1K	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
Painfulvoid	Eaglesavg 58.7¢	$12.7K	$15.2K	$-2.5K	53% 2026-1767 (3793)
TA takeormakeCTR	Giantsavg 41.8¢	$19.3K	$11.3K	$-8.0K	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
VeryLucky888	Eaglesavg 57.8¢	$7.5K	$9.8K	+$2.3K	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
BA Bagwell306	Eaglesavg 59¢	$5.9K	$7.5K	+$1.6K	48% 4749-5247 (9996)
ME metski29	Eaglesavg 59.7¢	$4.7K	$5.5K	+$472.89	45% 374-453 (827)
38 38791873984189	Eaglesavg 58¢	$2.7K	$3.5K	+$800.64	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
AN Anon455	Eaglesavg 62.5¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$300	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Giantsavg 37.3¢	$2.7K	$2.2K	-$534.99	48% 214-229 (443)
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Giantsavg 43.7¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$126.4	54% 5360-4574 (9934)
└ Giants leg	Giantsavg 43.7¢	$1.4K	$991.5	+$181.78
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 76.5¢	$651.78	$596.4	-$55.38
65 6512395314597884	Eaglesavg 53.2¢	$972.67	$1.1K	+$146.16	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
nigiri99	Eaglesavg 64¢	$686.72	$751.1	+$64.38	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
AB abc51001CTR	Giantsavg 37¢	$745.88	$604.77	-$141.11	59% 67-47 (114)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Eaglesavg 48¢	$471.31	$518.66	+$47.35	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 48¢	$240	$350	+$110
└ Giants leg	Giantsavg 41.1¢	$231.31	$168.66	-$62.65
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Giantsavg 56¢	$756.58	$429.28	-$327.3	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
└ Giants leg	Giantsavg 56¢	$633.65	$277.09	-$356.56
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 61¢	$122.93	$152.19	+$29.25
CM cm2897	Eaglesavg 49¢	$98	$140	+$42	50% 2563-2606 (5169)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Giantsavg 41¢	$164	$98	-$66	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
PA Pan9X<$100	Eaglesavg 53.8¢	$77.62	$63.51	+$9.88	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
IC ic4cream<$100	Eaglesavg 59.7¢	$28.07	$34.07	+$8.7	56% 2873-2262 (5135)
RL RLWG<$100	Eaglesavg 87¢	$34.8	$28	-$6.8	49% 8555-8731 (17286)
RN1<$100	Eaglesavg 63¢	$17.03	$19.86	+$2.84	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Giantsavg 42¢	$16.8	$9.8	-$7	53% 13661-12046 (25707)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Eagles

Invested

$76,046.46

Value

$82.7K

PnL

+$6.7K

Record

53%

6640-5923 (12563)

BreakTheBankCTR

Giants

Invested

$80,052.94

Value

$67.0K

PnL

$-13.0K

Record

41%

643-941 (1584)

biying88888

Eagles

Invested

$23,556.44

Value

$25.8K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

HomeRunHazard

Eagles

Invested

$16,944.98

Value

$22.1K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Painfulvoid

Eagles

Invested

$12,749.87

Value

$15.2K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

53%

2026-1767 (3793)

takeormakeCTR

Giants

Invested

$19,285.58

Value

$11.3K

PnL

$-8.0K

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

VeryLucky888

Eagles

Invested

$7,495.74

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

Bagwell306

Eagles

Invested

$5,899.41

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

48%

4749-5247 (9996)

metski29

Eagles

Invested

$4,707.19

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$472.89

Record

45%

374-453 (827)

38791873984189

Eagles

Invested

$2,694.22

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$800.64

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Anon455

Eagles

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$300

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Giants

Invested

$2,724.99

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$534.99

Record

48%

214-229 (443)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Giants

Invested

$1,461.5

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$126.4

Record

54%

5360-4574 (9934)

Both legs:

Giants$1,445.4543.7¢+$181.78

Eagles$651.7876.5¢-$55.38

6512395314597884

Eagles

Invested

$972.67

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$146.16

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

nigiri99

Eagles

Invested

$686.72

Value

$751.1

PnL

+$64.38

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

abc51001CTR

Giants

Invested

$745.88

Value

$604.77

PnL

-$141.11

Record

59%

67-47 (114)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Eagles

Invested

$471.31

Value

$518.66

PnL

+$47.35

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

Both legs:

Eagles$24048¢+$110

Giants$231.3141.1¢-$62.65

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Giants

Invested

$756.58

Value

$429.28

PnL

-$327.3

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

Both legs:

Giants$633.6556¢-$356.56

Eagles$122.9361¢+$29.25

cm2897

Eagles

Invested

$98

Value

$140

PnL

+$42

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Giants

Invested

$164

Value

$98

PnL

-$66

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

Pan9X<$100

Eagles

Invested

$77.62

Value

$63.51

PnL

+$9.88

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

ic4cream<$100

Eagles

Invested

$28.07

Value

$34.07

PnL

+$8.7

Record

56%

2873-2262 (5135)

RLWG<$100

Eagles

Invested

$34.8

Value

$28

PnL

-$6.8

Record

49%

8555-8731 (17286)

RN1<$100

Eagles

Invested

$17.03

Value

$19.86

PnL

+$2.84

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$16.8

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$7

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

16 of 23 top traders (70%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

68% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrEagles 65% · 20

Aligned

Hand-pickedEagles 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Eagles 67% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.