Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Maple Leafs, while the market favors Canadiens (79%). 18 of 25 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs

18 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Maple Leafs (72%) · Maple Leafs at 21¢ · $52K held · ended Nov 8

Canadiens79¢Maple Leafs21¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Maple Leafs

Consensus Traders

Maple Leafs 72%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$51.7K

Combined PnL

$-4.8K

Smart Money Entry

45.5¢ → 21.1¢

-54% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

AvoidMaple Leafs at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maple Leafs

18 of 25 top traders (72%)Underdog side (market favors Canadiens 79%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Canadiens79%

Maple Leafs21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Canadiens7 traders

Total Value$38.1K

Total Shares39,506

Combined PnL+$16.1K

Maple Leafs18 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares58,551

Combined PnL$-20.8K

Canadiens — 28%Maple Leafs — 72%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Canadiensavg 55.2¢	$11.0K	$19.3K	+$8.2K	51% 1005-973 (1978)
TA taylorsversion	Canadiensavg 53¢	$5.4K	$9.9K	+$4.5K	50% 144-146 (290)
CO cocococococo	Canadiensavg 54.7¢	$4.7K	$8.2K	+$3.6K	52% 1759-1599 (3358)
MU Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100	Maple Leafsavg 44.2¢	$10.3K	$7.3K	$-3.1K	48% 405-446 (851)
└ Canadiens leg	Canadiensavg 82.1¢	$4.8K	$4.6K	-$173.34
└ Maple Leafs leg	Maple Leafsavg 44.2¢	$5.5K	$2.6K	$-2.9K
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Maple Leafsavg 46.1¢	$8.8K	$4.0K	$-4.8K	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
ST stackingsatsCTR	Maple Leafsavg 46¢	$5.5K	$426	$-5.1K	48% 358-393 (751)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Canadiensavg 90.5¢	$596.16	$308.55	-$161.04	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Canadiens leg	Canadiensavg 90.5¢	$238.22	$207.03	-$31.92
└ Maple Leafs leg	Maple Leafsavg 30.4¢	$144.56	$101.52	-$129.12
RO royalestakeCTR	Maple Leafsavg 46¢	$3.7K	$292	$-3.4K	47% 416-463 (879)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Canadiensavg 86.7¢	$273.62	$273.07	-$0.54	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
BO BoomLaLa	Canadiensavg 96¢	$420	$255.33	-$164.68	53% 12855-11522 (24377)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Maple Leafsavg 44¢	$3.0K	$241.62	$-2.8K	49% 451-468 (919)
VeryLucky888CTR	Maple Leafsavg 46¢	$1.8K	$220	$-1.6K	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Maple Leafsavg 46¢	$422.43	$191.93	-$230.5	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
OJ ojgARB<$100	Canadiensavg 96.8¢	$186.42	$165.75	-$20.68	43% 838-1096 (1934)
└ Canadiens leg	Canadiensavg 96.8¢	$147.17	$127.12	-$20.04
└ Maple Leafs leg	Maple Leafsavg 16.6¢	$39.26	$38.62	-$0.63
0X 0xfFFF6537	Canadiensavg 96.2¢	$165.62	$137.61	-$28.01	49% 1142-1178 (2320)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Maple Leafsavg 44.5¢	$234.39	$112.51	-$121.88	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
0xheavy888CTR	Maple Leafsavg 46¢	$1.9K	$98.4	$-1.8K	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 17¢	$75.35	$92.64	+$17.29	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 18¢	$32.94	$38.25	+$5.31	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
yabanciCTR	Maple Leafsavg 46¢	$382.26	$29.5	-$336.55	51% 94-90 (184)
PA Pan9XCTR	Maple Leafsavg 45.3¢	$267.85	$28.29	-$154.82	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
RN1CTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 45¢	$57.27	$26.6	-$30.67	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
SE sentrioCTR	Maple Leafsavg 47¢	$139.26	$23.81	-$210.45	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Canadiensavg 79¢	$21.33	$21.36	+$0.03	53% 12378-10927 (23305)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Maple Leafsavg 46¢	$276	$16.8	-$259.2	51% 2062-2000 (4062)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Canadiens

Invested

$11,048.4

Value

$19.3K

PnL

+$8.2K

Record

51%

1005-973 (1978)

taylorsversion

Canadiens

Invested

$5,435.42

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

50%

144-146 (290)

cocococococo

Canadiens

Invested

$4,666.38

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

52%

1759-1599 (3358)

Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$10,345.41

Value

$7.3K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

Both legs:

Canadiens$4,819.5782.1¢-$173.34

Maple Leafs$5,525.8444.2¢$-2.9K

HomeRunHazardCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$8,752.4

Value

$4.0K

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

stackingsatsCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$5,520

Value

$426

PnL

$-5.1K

Record

48%

358-393 (751)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$596.16

Value

$308.55

PnL

-$161.04

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Canadiens$238.2290.5¢-$31.92

Maple Leafs$144.5630.4¢-$129.12

royalestakeCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$3,680

Value

$292

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

47%

416-463 (879)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Canadiens

Invested

$273.62

Value

$273.07

PnL

-$0.54

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

BoomLaLa

Canadiens

Invested

$420

Value

$255.33

PnL

-$164.68

Record

53%

12855-11522 (24377)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$3,037.47

Value

$241.62

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

49%

451-468 (919)

VeryLucky888CTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$1,839.98

Value

$220

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

SnakeBallCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$422.43

Value

$191.93

PnL

-$230.5

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

ojgARB<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$186.42

Value

$165.75

PnL

-$20.68

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

Both legs:

Canadiens$147.1796.8¢-$20.04

Maple Leafs$39.2616.6¢-$0.63

0xfFFF6537

Canadiens

Invested

$165.62

Value

$137.61

PnL

-$28.01

Record

49%

1142-1178 (2320)

FlaznorpCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$234.39

Value

$112.51

PnL

-$121.88

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

0xheavy888CTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$1,886.5

Value

$98.4

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$75.35

Value

$92.64

PnL

+$17.29

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$32.94

Value

$38.25

PnL

+$5.31

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

yabanciCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$382.26

Value

$29.5

PnL

-$336.55

Record

51%

94-90 (184)

Pan9XCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$267.85

Value

$28.29

PnL

-$154.82

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

RN1CTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$57.27

Value

$26.6

PnL

-$30.67

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

sentrioCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$139.26

Value

$23.81

PnL

-$210.45

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

justaluckydude<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$21.33

Value

$21.36

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

12378-10927 (23305)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$276

Value

$16.8

PnL

-$259.2

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

Research grade

AvoidMaple Leafs at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Maple Leafs

18 of 25 top traders (72%)Underdog side (market favors Canadiens 79%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maple Leafs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.0%

21.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$334.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

434.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.