Predators vs. Kings

24 of 34 top Polymarket traders hold Predators (71%) · Predators at 91¢ · $98K held · ended Nov 11

Predators91¢Kings9¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Predators

Consensus Traders

Predators 71%

Total Value

$98.3K

Combined PnL

$8.7K

Smart Money Entry

55.3¢ → 90.5¢

+64% since entry · 24 traders

Research grade

NeutralPredators at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Predators

24 of 34 top traders (71%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Predators91%

Kings10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Predators24 traders

Total Value$94.2K

Total Shares99,802

Combined PnL+$23.2K

Kings10 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares37,938

Combined PnL$-14.5K

Predators — 71%Kings — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

23 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

72% of non-arb traders are on Predators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPredators 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperPredators 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrPredators 61% · 18

Aligned

Hand-pickedPredators 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Predators 71% · 31

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Woaifacai	Predatorsavg 63¢	$29.6K	$42.5K	+$12.9K	62% 218-135 (353)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Predatorsavg 46¢	$30.7K	$34.8K	+$4.1K	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Predatorsavg 60.3¢	$3.6K	$5.3K	+$1.7K	48% 515-569 (1084)
VeryLucky888	Predatorsavg 45¢	$2.7K	$3.5K	+$1.6K	51% 354-335 (689)
HO HomeRunHazard	Predatorsavg 45¢	$1.6K	$3.2K	+$1.6K	57% 3101-2332 (5433)
CH ChonkVisionCTR	Kingsavg 54¢	$10.8K	$2.1K	$-8.7K	53% 178-155 (333)
VladooosCTR	Kingsavg 38¢	$3.3K	$829.79	$-2.5K	— 11-6 (17)
BA babybells	Predatorsavg 57.3¢	$615.98	$628.2	+$151.98	21% 107-395 (502)
VE Venusian	Predatorsavg 45¢	$283.71	$554.8	+$271.1	28% 317-800 (1117)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Predatorsavg 65¢	$422.17	$462.32	+$40.14	56% 3827-2993 (6820)
OJ ojg	Predatorsavg 59.4¢	$302.06	$454.76	+$152.7	41% 111-161 (272)
SN SnakeBall	Predatorsavg 45¢	$222.08	$434.28	+$212.2	48% 231-247 (478)
RO royalestakeCTR	Kingsavg 55¢	$1.9K	$420	$-1.5K	2% 3-182 (185)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Predatorsavg 47¢	$192	$369.7	+$177.7	12% 105-801 (906)
SE sentrio	Predatorsavg 45¢	$185.67	$363.08	+$177.41	35% 279-508 (787)
38 38791873984189	Predatorsavg 71.8¢	$648.92	$360.47	-$133.42	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
TH thirdt1me	Predatorsavg 60.9¢	$465.5	$281.58	+$99.58	43% 102-137 (239)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Kingsavg 37¢	$965.52	$247.9	-$717.62	52% 2583-2418 (5001)
PA Pan9X	Predatorsavg 65.6¢	$387.32	$236.56	+$14.35	49% 498-518 (1016)
0X 0xfFFF6537	Predatorsavg 57.7¢	$207.17	$232.25	+$25.08	22% 17-62 (79)
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9	Predatorsavg 46¢	$73.4	$140.42	+$67.02	1% 5-416 (421)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Kingsavg 37¢	$164.56	$137.57	-$26.99	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
CO cocococococoCTR	Kingsavg 55¢	$611.05	$133.32	-$477.73	3% 1-33 (34)
RN1CTR	Kingsavg 37¢	$378.14	$107.31	-$270.83	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
LR lryyy<$100	Predatorsavg 80¢	$70.4	$78.76	+$8.36	49% 200-208 (408)

Woaifacai

Predators

Invested

$29,615.72

Value

$42.5K

PnL

+$12.9K

Record

62%

218-135 (353)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Predators

Invested

$30,724.42

Value

$34.8K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

Multicoloured-Serf

Predators

Invested

$3,629.36

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

48%

515-569 (1084)

VeryLucky888

Predators

Invested

$2,664.11

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

51%

354-335 (689)

HomeRunHazard

Predators

Invested

$1,624.09

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

57%

3101-2332 (5433)

ChonkVisionCTR

Kings

Invested

$10,799.88

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-8.7K

Record

53%

178-155 (333)

VladooosCTR

Kings

Invested

$3,319.15

Value

$829.79

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

—

11-6 (17)

babybells

Predators

Invested

$615.98

Value

$628.2

PnL

+$151.98

Record

21%

107-395 (502)

Venusian

Predators

Invested

$283.71

Value

$554.8

PnL

+$271.1

Record

28%

317-800 (1117)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Predators

Invested

$422.17

Value

$462.32

PnL

+$40.14

Record

56%

3827-2993 (6820)

ojg

Predators

Invested

$302.06

Value

$454.76

PnL

+$152.7

Record

41%

111-161 (272)

SnakeBall

Predators

Invested

$222.08

Value

$434.28

PnL

+$212.2

Record

48%

231-247 (478)

royalestakeCTR

Kings

Invested

$1,925

Value

$420

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

3-182 (185)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Predators

Invested

$192

Value

$369.7

PnL

+$177.7

Record

12%

105-801 (906)

sentrio

Predators

Invested

$185.67

Value

$363.08

PnL

+$177.41

Record

35%

279-508 (787)

38791873984189

Predators

Invested

$648.92

Value

$360.47

PnL

-$133.42

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

thirdt1me

Predators

Invested

$465.5

Value

$281.58

PnL

+$99.58

Record

43%

102-137 (239)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Kings

Invested

$965.52

Value

$247.9

PnL

-$717.62

Record

52%

2583-2418 (5001)

Pan9X

Predators

Invested

$387.32

Value

$236.56

PnL

+$14.35

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

0xfFFF6537

Predators

Invested

$207.17

Value

$232.25

PnL

+$25.08

Record

22%

17-62 (79)

0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9

Predators

Invested

$73.4

Value

$140.42

PnL

+$67.02

Record

5-416 (421)

FlaznorpCTR

Kings

Invested

$164.56

Value

$137.57

PnL

-$26.99

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

cocococococoCTR

Kings

Invested

$611.05

Value

$133.32

PnL

-$477.73

Record

1-33 (34)

RN1CTR

Kings

Invested

$378.14

Value

$107.31

PnL

-$270.83

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

lryyy<$100

Predators

Invested

$70.4

Value

$78.76

PnL

+$8.36

Record

49%

200-208 (408)

Research grade

NeutralPredators at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Predators

24 of 34 top traders (71%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

23 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

72% of non-arb traders are on Predators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPredators 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperPredators 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrPredators 61% · 18

Aligned

Hand-pickedPredators 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Predators 71% · 31

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Predators wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.