Rangers vs. Flames

6 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Rangers (23%) · Rangers at 57¢ · $210K held · ended Nov 12

Rangers57¢Flames43¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rangers

Consensus Traders

Rangers 23%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$209.5K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 57.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralRangers at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rangers

6 of 26 top traders (23%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rangers57%

Flames43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rangers6 traders

Total Value$124.3K

Total Shares216,480

Combined PnL+$69.32

Flames20 traders

Total Value$83.8K

Total Shares196,103

Combined PnL+$943.16

Rangers — 23%Flames — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188	Rangersavg 57.4¢	$116.3K	$116.5K	+$173.49	49% 115-121 (236)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Flamesavg 42¢	$27.4K	$27.7K	+$302.69	48% 536-588 (1124)
BO BoggsFromShawshankCTR	Flamesavg 43¢	$9.9K	$10.0K	+$115	2% 7-386 (393)
HI hi774cCTR	Flamesavg 42¢	$9.6K	$9.7K	+$114.1	14% 77-472 (549)
0xheavy888CTR	Flamesavg 42¢	$8.4K	$8.5K	+$100	55% 205-165 (370)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Flamesavg 43¢	$7.4K	$7.4K	+$0	53% 1841-1653 (3494)
RO royalestake	Rangersavg 57¢	$6.6K	$6.4K	-$115	2% 3-184 (187)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Flamesavg 42¢	$5.8K	$6.0K	+$139.15	52% 14-13 (27)
VeryLucky888CTR	Flamesavg 42.1¢	$5.8K	$5.9K	+$51.16	52% 490-447 (937)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Flamesavg 42¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$56.66	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Flamesavg 42.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0.81	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
└ Flames leg	Flamesavg 42.6¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$1.92
└ Rangers leg	Rangersavg 57¢	$311.79	$314.53	+$2.74
VE VenusianCTR	Flamesavg 42¢	$973.9	$997.09	+$23.19	31% 407-907 (1314)
BA BayupatiCTR	Flamesavg 42¢	$945	$967.5	+$22.5	9% 13-129 (142)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Flamesavg 42¢	$793.63	$803.08	+$9.45	43% 52-68 (120)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Rangersavg 57¢	$704.16	$710.34	+$6.18	51% 3720-3550 (7270)
CH ChonkVision	Rangersavg 56¢	$390.32	$393.8	+$3.48	53% 179-157 (336)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Flamesavg 43¢	$344	$347.99	+$4	15% 148-841 (989)
WE westing.v1CTR	Flamesavg 43¢	$207.64	$207.64	+$0	15% 12-70 (82)
FO forecastication4	Rangersavg 56¢	$200.08	$203.65	+$3.57	18% 49-220 (269)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Flamesavg 42¢	$159.72	$163.52	+$3.8	46% 292-339 (631)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Flamesavg 42.2¢	$125.26	$126.22	+$0.96	55% 658-540 (1198)
└ Flames leg	Flamesavg 42.2¢	$67.16	$67.6	+$0.45
└ Rangers leg	Rangersavg 57¢	$58.11	$58.62	+$0.51
OD OddstormCTR	Flamesavg 42¢	$119.05	$120.47	+$1.42	23% 36-120 (156)
PA Pan9XCTR	Flamesavg 42.9¢	$214.44	$118.46	-$0.28	49% 684-724 (1408)
RL RLWG<$100	Rangersavg 58¢	$69.59	$67.19	-$2.4	67% 1661-813 (2474)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Flamesavg 42¢	$21	$21.25	+$0.25	39% 1055-1631 (2686)

0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188

Rangers

Invested

$116,304.23

Value

$116.5K

PnL

+$173.49

Record

49%

115-121 (236)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Flames

Invested

$27,413.48

Value

$27.7K

PnL

+$302.69

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

BoggsFromShawshankCTR

Flames

Invested

$9,890

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$115

Record

7-386 (393)

hi774cCTR

Flames

Invested

$9,584.79

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$114.1

Record

14%

77-472 (549)

0xheavy888CTR

Flames

Invested

$8,400

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$100

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Flames

Invested

$7,426.22

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1841-1653 (3494)

royalestake

Rangers

Invested

$6,554.97

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$115

Record

3-184 (187)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Flames

Invested

$5,844.3

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$139.15

Record

52%

14-13 (27)

VeryLucky888CTR

Flames

Invested

$5,799.87

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$51.16

Record

52%

490-447 (937)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Flames

Invested

$4,759.8

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$56.66

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Flames

Invested

$1,365.62

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0.81

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

Both legs:

Flames$1,041.8642.6¢-$1.92

Rangers$311.7957¢+$2.74

VenusianCTR

Flames

Invested

$973.9

Value

$997.09

PnL

+$23.19

Record

31%

407-907 (1314)

BayupatiCTR

Flames

Invested

$945

Value

$967.5

PnL

+$22.5

Record

13-129 (142)

mouzsynapseCTR

Flames

Invested

$793.63

Value

$803.08

PnL

+$9.45

Record

43%

52-68 (120)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Rangers

Invested

$704.16

Value

$710.34

PnL

+$6.18

Record

51%

3720-3550 (7270)

ChonkVision

Rangers

Invested

$390.32

Value

$393.8

PnL

+$3.48

Record

53%

179-157 (336)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Flames

Invested

$344

Value

$347.99

PnL

+$4

Record

15%

148-841 (989)

westing.v1CTR

Flames

Invested

$207.64

Value

$207.64

PnL

+$0

Record

15%

12-70 (82)

forecastication4

Rangers

Invested

$200.08

Value

$203.65

PnL

+$3.57

Record

18%

49-220 (269)

SnakeBallCTR

Flames

Invested

$159.72

Value

$163.52

PnL

+$3.8

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

ghorrockARB<$100

Flames

Invested

$125.26

Value

$126.22

PnL

+$0.96

Record

55%

658-540 (1198)

Both legs:

Flames$67.1642.2¢+$0.45

Rangers$58.1157¢+$0.51

OddstormCTR

Flames

Invested

$119.05

Value

$120.47

PnL

+$1.42

Record

23%

36-120 (156)

Pan9XCTR

Flames

Invested

$214.44

Value

$118.46

PnL

-$0.28

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

RLWG<$100

Rangers

Invested

$69.59

Value

$67.19

PnL

-$2.4

Record

67%

1661-813 (2474)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$21

Value

$21.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

39%

1055-1631 (2686)

Research grade

NeutralRangers at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Rangers

6 of 26 top traders (23%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rangers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.