Flyers vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5

13 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Under (42%) · Under at 77¢ · $114K held · ended Nov 12

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$114.2K

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 76.5¢

+39% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 31 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under13 traders

Total Value$84.6K

Total Shares110,098

Combined PnL+$24.2K

Over18 traders

Total Value$21.3K

Total Shares105,806

Combined PnL$-26.6K

Under — 42%Over — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 71% · 21

Diverging

Top 1000Over 58% · 31

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI sinasinner	Underavg 55¢	$33.0K	$46.2K	+$13.2K	— 3-11 (14)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 54.2¢	$17.3K	$24.4K	+$7.1K	48% 540-590 (1130)
BR BrotherObamaCTR	Overavg 45.8¢	$22.0K	$11.3K	$-10.7K	— 5-4 (9)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 45.1¢	$9.1K	$8.3K	-$818.61	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$4.0K	$5.6K	+$1.7K
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.1¢	$5.2K	$2.7K	$-2.5K
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 45¢	$17.2K	$5.1K	$-8.5K	52% 235-217 (452)
MA MAGATheeStallion	Underavg 54.7¢	$3.0K	$4.2K	+$1.2K	2% 3-170 (173)
TA taylorsversion	Underavg 55¢	$2.8K	$3.9K	+$1.1K	53% 98-86 (184)
RO roldy	Underavg 55¢	$2.2K	$3.1K	+$860	— 4-5 (9)
RO royalestakeCTR	Overavg 45¢	$3.0K	$1.1K	$-1.9K	2% 4-184 (188)
heyboy800	Underavg 66.8¢	$888	$1.0K	+$129.27	66% 21-11 (32)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 54¢	$666.12	$943.67	+$277.55	47% 350-393 (743)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Overavg 45¢	$2.3K	$850	$-1.4K	26% 42-118 (160)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Overavg 45.2¢	$2.1K	$799.13	$-1.3K	37% 30-51 (81)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 54.3¢	$973.73	$659.99	+$237.63	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 46¢	$1.1K	$587.5	-$562.5	55% 218-176 (394)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 45¢	$1.1K	$415.34	-$684.09	32% 444-952 (1396)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 45¢	$1.1K	$415.24	-$683.93	31% 438-969 (1407)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 45¢	$1.1K	$400.24	-$659.22	15% 85-486 (571)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 33¢	$226.27	$161.13	-$65.14	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 67.6¢	$80.47	$91.04	+$10.56	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
PU purplegattoCTR	Overavg 45¢	$202.43	$76.47	-$125.96	69% 2589-1187 (3776)
PL pltrkr111<$100	Underavg 54¢	$38.02	$53.87	+$15.84	2% 11-516 (527)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 64¢	$29.17	$34.74	+$5.57	36% 410-719 (1129)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 44.8¢	$26.99	$15.17	-$4.51	49% 786-829 (1615)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$14.08	$15.04	+$0.96	12% 24-179 (203)

sinasinner

Under

Invested

$32,999.95

Value

$46.2K

PnL

+$13.2K

Record

—

3-11 (14)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$17,265.04

Value

$24.4K

PnL

+$7.1K

Record

48%

540-590 (1130)

BrotherObamaCTR

Over

Invested

$22,000

Value

$11.3K

PnL

$-10.7K

Record

—

5-4 (9)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$9,145.07

Value

$8.3K

PnL

-$818.61

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

Both legs:

Under$3,979.5754¢+$1.7K

Over$5,165.545.1¢$-2.5K

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$17,215.2

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-8.5K

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

MAGATheeStallion

Under

Invested

$2,999.7

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

3-170 (173)

taylorsversion

Under

Invested

$2,790.53

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

53%

98-86 (184)

roldy

Under

Invested

$2,199.99

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$860

Record

—

4-5 (9)

royalestakeCTR

Over

Invested

$3,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

4-184 (188)

heyboy800

Under

Invested

$888

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$129.27

Record

66%

21-11 (32)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$666.12

Value

$943.67

PnL

+$277.55

Record

47%

350-393 (743)

Bagwell306CTR

Over

Invested

$2,250

Value

$850

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

26%

42-118 (160)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Over

Invested

$2,125.37

Value

$799.13

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

37%

30-51 (81)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$973.73

Value

$659.99

PnL

+$237.63

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,150

Value

$587.5

PnL

-$562.5

Record

55%

218-176 (394)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,099.43

Value

$415.34

PnL

-$684.09

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$1,099.17

Value

$415.24

PnL

-$683.93

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$1,059.46

Value

$400.24

PnL

-$659.22

Record

15%

85-486 (571)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$226.27

Value

$161.13

PnL

-$65.14

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$80.47

Value

$91.04

PnL

+$10.56

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

purplegattoCTR

Over

Invested

$202.43

Value

$76.47

PnL

-$125.96

Record

69%

2589-1187 (3776)

pltrkr111<$100

Under

Invested

$38.02

Value

$53.87

PnL

+$15.84

Record

11-516 (527)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$29.17

Value

$34.74

PnL

+$5.57

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.99

Value

$15.17

PnL

-$4.51

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.08

Value

$15.04

PnL

+$0.96

Record

12%

24-179 (203)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 31 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 71% · 21

Diverging

Top 1000Over 58% · 31

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.