Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-11-07?

16 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 98¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 7

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$20.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

75.9¢ → 97.7¢

+29% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 22 top traders (73%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$19.2K

Total Shares20,371

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$894.1

Total Shares24,849

Combined PnL$-5.6K

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (20 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO roscoff	Noavg 80¢	$12.0K	$14.1K	+$2.5K	52% 173-159 (332)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 92.6¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$28.07	60% 911-595 (1506)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 74¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	+$330.05	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 3.8¢	$59.45	$1.1K	+$1.2K	47% 1690-1872 (3562)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 74.6¢	$1.4K	$634.43	-$734.03	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 62.6¢	$303.97	$325.04	+$21.06	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 22.4¢	$3.4K	$202.77	$-3.2K	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
XT xtxpleasecallme	No	$196.69	$196.69	+$0	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
ME merod	Noavg 75¢	$157.5	$57.29	+$11.69	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 71.7¢	$120.84	$39.53	+$9.39	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 78.2¢	$595.89	$28.29	+$3.74	42% 3180-4317 (7497)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 33.7¢	$646.13	$24.78	-$621.36	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 20¢	$4.95	$23.29	+$18.34	44% 6482-8172 (14654)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 55.9¢	$910.93	$17.93	-$893	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$32.95	$15.35	+$3.49	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 77¢	$77.99	$13.42	+$2.44	40% 2177-3221 (5398)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Yesavg 29.2¢	$181.01	$10.53	-$170.48	63% 712-413 (1125)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 69.1¢	$147.98	$5.72	+$1.52	39% 1087-1679 (2766)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 66.4¢	$52.98	$5.66	+$1.66	40% 1050-1578 (2628)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 69¢	$45.02	$4.76	+$1.27	47% 2141-2439 (4580)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 27.1¢	$1.09	$3.78	+$2.69	51% 7653-7369 (15022)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$6.31	$3.66	-$2.65	18% 4284-20059 (24343)

roscoff

Invested

$12,000

Value

$14.1K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

52%

173-159 (332)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$1,689.49

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$28.07

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$1,670.8

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$330.05

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$59.45

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

47%

1690-1872 (3562)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,368.47

Value

$634.43

PnL

-$734.03

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

cigarettes

Invested

$303.97

Value

$325.04

PnL

+$21.06

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,400.32

Value

$202.77

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$196.69

Value

$196.69

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

merod

Invested

$157.5

Value

$57.29

PnL

+$11.69

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$120.84

Value

$39.53

PnL

+$9.39

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$595.89

Value

$28.29

PnL

+$3.74

Record

42%

3180-4317 (7497)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$646.13

Value

$24.78

PnL

-$621.36

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

korda77<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$23.29

PnL

+$18.34

Record

44%

6482-8172 (14654)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$910.93

Value

$17.93

PnL

-$893

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$32.95

Value

$15.35

PnL

+$3.49

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$77.99

Value

$13.42

PnL

+$2.44

Record

40%

2177-3221 (5398)

Burkilota1CTR

Yes

Invested

$181.01

Value

$10.53

PnL

-$170.48

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$147.98

Value

$5.72

PnL

+$1.52

Record

39%

1087-1679 (2766)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$52.98

Value

$5.66

PnL

+$1.66

Record

40%

1050-1578 (2628)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$45.02

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$1.27

Record

47%

2141-2439 (4580)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.09

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$2.69

Record

51%

7653-7369 (15022)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.31

Value

$3.66

PnL

-$2.65

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 22 top traders (73%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (20 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.