Will LASK Linz win on 2026-11-03?

29 of 40 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 100¢ · $75K held · ended Nov 3

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$74.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 99.8¢

+34% since entry · 29 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

29 of 40 top traders (73%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes29 traders

Total Value$52.5K

Total Shares65,939

Combined PnL+$2.8K

No11 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares49,482

Combined PnL$-4.0K

Yes — 73%No — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 89% · 9

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 87% · 23

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO googleplay	Yesavg 74¢	$19.5K	$19.1K	-$391.96	50% 54-55 (109)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 74.6¢	$7.8K	$10.3K	+$2.6K	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$9.6K	$9.6K	+$8.36	55% 3323-2713 (6036)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 73¢	$6.8K	$6.8K	-$46.76
└ No leg	Noavg 27¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$55.13
LI Limousin	Yesavg 70¢	$5.2K	$5.3K	+$110.48	56% 942-736 (1678)
nigiri99	Yesavg 72¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$88.59	46% 8245-9621 (17866)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 29.8¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$173.76	71% 6981-2792 (9773)
SH SharkVision	Yesavg 85.1¢	$3.1K	$3.3K	+$228.2	70% 1414-592 (2006)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 23.8¢	$6.1K	$2.3K	$-3.8K	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Noavg 28¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$40	32% 753-1598 (2351)
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 70.6¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$22.32	52% 830-771 (1601)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 27¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$30.67	53% 16384-14558 (30942)
└ No leg	Noavg 27¢	$860.56	$876.5	+$15.94
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 71¢	$697.38	$712.11	+$14.73
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 84.5¢	$2.0K	$1.2K	-$119.32	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
fraj0la	Yesavg 70¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$21.43	64% 241-138 (379)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 84.8¢	$789.73	$921.52	+$131.8	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
LZ lzh1CTR	Noavg 28.9¢	$866.53	$839.99	-$26.54	43% 490-651 (1141)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 87.7¢	$771.01	$831.41	+$60.4	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
P1 P1kasoCTR	Noavg 27.7¢	$1.4K	$762.26	-$37.75	63% 763-457 (1220)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 27¢	$625.7	$637.01	+$11.31	49% 14107-14668 (28775)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Yesavg 71¢	$596.4	$604.8	+$4.2	45% 10636-12803 (23439)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Yesavg 72¢	$546.55	$546.55	-$3.8	53% 2336-2055 (4391)
FE ferdinand2	Yesavg 70¢	$418.89	$437.21	+$7.63	48% 6154-6562 (12716)
DV dv-pm	Yesavg 69¢	$67.62	$326.16	+$18.43	49% 3261-3353 (6614)
KL kleomarcus	Yesavg 72¢	$302.4	$300.3	-$2.1	63% 1692-1003 (2695)
LI Lilybaeum	Yesavg 99¢	$295.57	$295.19	-$0.37	61% 13937-8970 (22907)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 71.5¢	$285.99	$289.99	+$4	55% 7598-6093 (13691)

googleplay

Yes

Invested

$19,521.75

Value

$19.1K

PnL

-$391.96

Record

50%

54-55 (109)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$7,773.07

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

Anon455ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$9,616.53

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$8.36

Record

55%

3323-2713 (6036)

Both legs:

Yes$6,827.6273¢-$46.76

No$2,788.927¢+$55.13

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$5,162.08

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$110.48

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

nigiri99

Yes

Invested

$4,274.37

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$88.59

Record

46%

8245-9621 (17866)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$4,000.75

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$173.76

Record

71%

6981-2792 (9773)

SharkVision

Yes

Invested

$3,084.49

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$228.2

Record

70%

1414-592 (2006)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$6,076.81

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Invested

$2,240

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$40

Record

32%

753-1598 (2351)

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$1,679.14

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$22.32

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$1,557.95

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$30.67

Record

53%

16384-14558 (30942)

Both legs:

Invested

$2,002.68

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$119.32

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

fraj0la

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$21.43

Record

64%

241-138 (379)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$789.73

Value

$921.52

PnL

+$131.8

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

lzh1CTR

Invested

$866.53

Value

$839.99

PnL

-$26.54

Record

43%

490-651 (1141)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$771.01

Value

$831.41

PnL

+$60.4

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

P1kasoCTR

Invested

$1,414.34

Value

$762.26

PnL

-$37.75

Record

63%

763-457 (1220)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$625.7

Value

$637.01

PnL

+$11.31

Record

49%

14107-14668 (28775)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Yes

Invested

$596.4

Value

$604.8

PnL

+$4.2

Record

45%

10636-12803 (23439)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Yes

Invested

$546.55

Value

$546.55

PnL

-$3.8

Record

53%

2336-2055 (4391)

ferdinand2

Yes

Invested

$418.89

Value

$437.21

PnL

+$7.63

Record

48%

6154-6562 (12716)

dv-pm

Yes

Invested

$67.62

Value

$326.16

PnL

+$18.43

Record

49%

3261-3353 (6614)

kleomarcus

Yes

Invested

$302.4

Value

$300.3

PnL

-$2.1

Record

63%

1692-1003 (2695)

Lilybaeum

Yes

Invested

$295.57

Value

$295.19

PnL

-$0.37

Record

61%

13937-8970 (22907)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$285.99

Value

$289.99

PnL

+$4

Record

55%

7598-6093 (13691)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

29 of 40 top traders (73%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 89% · 9

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 87% · 23

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.