Will PSV vs. Club Brugge KV end in a draw?

15 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 85¢ · $24K held · ended Nov 4

Yes15¢No85¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.2K

Combined PnL

$416.26

Smart Money Entry

75.6¢ → 85¢

+12% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 24 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$19.2K

Total Shares23,115

Combined PnL+$420.33

Yes9 traders

Total Value$972.7

Total Shares4,084

Combined PnL-$4.07

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 74¢	$8.7K	$9.1K	+$399.04	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$9.58	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$37.64
└ No leg	Noavg 73.4¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$47.22
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 78¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$0	71% 7122-2863 (9985)
RN1	Noavg 76¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$128.39	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
XW xwingboy	Noavg 78.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$22	65% 322-173 (495)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 73.4¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$164.3	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
GC GC-P	Noavg 77¢	$655.76	$664.33	+$8.56	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 73.2¢	$472.03	$474.63	+$2.6	52% 14229-13002 (27231)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 22.9¢	$491.56	$473.11	-$18.45	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
WA WagerWizardARB<$100	Noavg 74¢	$289.44	$272.69	-$16.76	84% 14606-2798 (17404)
└ No leg	Noavg 74¢	$197.76	$189.78	-$7.98
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.1¢	$91.68	$82.9	-$8.77
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 22.9¢	$202.06	$194.48	-$7.58	54% 1193-1031 (2224)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 25.1¢	$82.59	$116.88	+$34.3	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
NM NM-P	Noavg 77¢	$100.56	$101.86	+$1.31	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Noavg 72.1¢	$81.51	$76.3	-$5.21	61% 14037-9041 (23078)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.5¢	$86.62	$65.92	-$20.71	52% 1149-1045 (2194)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77¢	$50.91	$51.57	+$0.66	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.8¢	$42.61	$49.77	+$7.16	33% 1147-2278 (3425)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$40.5	$38.25	-$2.25	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 77¢	$25.29	$23.61	+$0.33	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 73.9¢	$23.37	$22.93	-$0.44	66% 23991-12174 (36165)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$18.84	$21.63	+$2.79	57% 12279-9333 (21612)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$8.02	$7.88	-$0.14	47% 11082-12418 (23500)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 80.8¢	$8.08	$7.65	-$0.43	51% 6278-6033 (12311)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 63.6¢	$4.9	$4.89	-$0.01	65% 5174-2807 (7981)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$3.96	$4.77	+$0.81	49% 6204-6345 (12549)

Flaznorp

Invested

$8,705.19

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$399.04

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,708.75

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$9.58

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

Both legs:

Yes$2,069.3325¢-$37.64

No$1,639.4273.4¢+$47.22

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$3,081.32

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

71%

7122-2863 (9985)

RN1

Invested

$2,305.79

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$128.39

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

xwingboy

Invested

$2,022

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$22

Record

65%

322-173 (495)

38791873984189

Invested

$1,262.28

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$164.3

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

GC-P

Invested

$655.76

Value

$664.33

PnL

+$8.56

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$472.03

Value

$474.63

PnL

+$2.6

Record

52%

14229-13002 (27231)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$491.56

Value

$473.11

PnL

-$18.45

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

WagerWizardARB<$100

Invested

$289.44

Value

$272.69

PnL

-$16.76

Record

84%

14606-2798 (17404)

Both legs:

Invested

$202.06

Value

$194.48

PnL

-$7.58

Record

54%

1193-1031 (2224)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$82.59

Value

$116.88

PnL

+$34.3

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

NM-P

Invested

$100.56

Value

$101.86

PnL

+$1.31

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

Lilybaeum<$100

Invested

$81.51

Value

$76.3

PnL

-$5.21

Record

61%

14037-9041 (23078)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.62

Value

$65.92

PnL

-$20.71

Record

52%

1149-1045 (2194)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$50.91

Value

$51.57

PnL

+$0.66

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.61

Value

$49.77

PnL

+$7.16

Record

33%

1147-2278 (3425)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.5

Value

$38.25

PnL

-$2.25

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$25.29

Value

$23.61

PnL

+$0.33

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$23.37

Value

$22.93

PnL

-$0.44

Record

66%

23991-12174 (36165)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.84

Value

$21.63

PnL

+$2.79

Record

57%

12279-9333 (21612)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.02

Value

$7.88

PnL

-$0.14

Record

47%

11082-12418 (23500)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$8.08

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$0.43

Record

51%

6278-6033 (12311)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.89

PnL

-$0.01

Record

65%

5174-2807 (7981)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.96

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$0.81

Record

49%

6204-6345 (12549)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 24 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.