Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (85%). 10 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Racing Club de Lens vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5

10 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 16¢ · $39K held · ended Nov 4

Over85¢Under15¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.8K

Combined PnL

$729.37

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 15.5¢

-70% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 22 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 85%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over85%

Under16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares13,125

Combined PnL+$689.19

Over12 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares6,347

Combined PnL+$40.17

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 60.2¢	$16.5K	$15.0K	$-1.5K	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
└ Over leg	Overavg 60.2¢	$8.3K	$9.6K	+$1.3K
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.6¢	$8.2K	$5.4K	$-2.8K
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Underavg 61.7¢	$6.4K	$6.3K	-$29.98	71% 7122-2863 (9985)
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.7¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	-$52.72
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.5¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$22.74
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 47.6¢	$5.6K	$4.2K	$-1.4K	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$2.1K	$3.3K	+$1.2K
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.6¢	$3.5K	$920.63	$-2.6K
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 45.5¢	$2.6K	$3.4K	+$810.78	52% 1149-1045 (2194)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 39.9¢	$7.5K	$2.9K	$-4.6K	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
└ Under leg	Underavg 39.9¢	$6.7K	$2.1K	$-4.6K
└ Over leg	Overavg 87¢	$803.08	$807.69	+$4.62
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 63.2¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$11.73	48% 303-327 (630)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 55.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$101.32	51% 1793-1714 (3507)
rayvanmechelen	Overavg 39.2¢	$807.14	$803.47	-$3.67	74% 2423-864 (3287)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 39.2¢	$716.8	$714.47	-$2.34	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 43.1¢	$919.42	$698.1	-$221.32	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 60.2¢	$523.1	$529.99	+$6.88	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
LI Limousin	Overavg 40.2¢	$479.02	$468.28	-$10.74	54% 1193-1031 (2224)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 53.9¢	$603.1	$420.09	+$126.13	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 59¢	$209.32	$164.52	+$6.75	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 61¢	$109.59	$109.59	+$0	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
alpheclabs2	Overavg 53.7¢	$132.72	$96.33	-$36.39	47% 1163-1315 (2478)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 52.6¢	$118.46	$95.23	-$23.24	47% 11082-12418 (23500)
WA WagerWizard	Overavg 85.6¢	$100.8	$81.82	-$18.98	84% 14606-2798 (17404)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 39¢	$23.01	$49.86	+$26.84	46% 8410-9880 (18290)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Underavg 60¢	$48	$48.8	+$0.4	64% 1892-1053 (2945)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 39.2¢	$36.38	$36.18	-$0.2	51% 7653-7369 (15022)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 54¢	$49.78	$35.95	-$13.83	57% 12279-9333 (21612)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Overavg 54¢	$12.42	$8.97	-$3.45	48% 5273-5766 (11039)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 60.7¢	$34.31	$8.76	-$25.55	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$4.15	$2.35	-$1.8	49% 14327-15003 (29330)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$16,532.44

Value

$15.0K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

Both legs:

Over$8,314.7660.2¢+$1.3K

Under$8,217.6946.6¢$-2.8K

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Under

Invested

$6,365.58

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$29.98

Record

71%

7122-2863 (9985)

Both legs:

Under$4,623.5761.7¢-$52.72

Over$1,742.0138.5¢+$22.74

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$5,619.15

Value

$4.2K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

Both legs:

Over$2,11356¢+$1.2K

Under$3,506.1547.6¢$-2.6K

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$2,610.84

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$810.78

Record

52%

1149-1045 (2194)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$7,493.85

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-4.6K

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

Both legs:

Under$6,690.7739.9¢$-4.6K

Over$803.0887¢+$4.62

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$1,482.04

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$11.73

Record

48%

303-327 (630)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$1,057.67

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$101.32

Record

51%

1793-1714 (3507)

rayvanmechelen

Over

Invested

$807.14

Value

$803.47

PnL

-$3.67

Record

74%

2423-864 (3287)

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$716.8

Value

$714.47

PnL

-$2.34

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$919.42

Value

$698.1

PnL

-$221.32

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$523.1

Value

$529.99

PnL

+$6.88

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

Limousin

Over

Invested

$479.02

Value

$468.28

PnL

-$10.74

Record

54%

1193-1031 (2224)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$603.1

Value

$420.09

PnL

+$126.13

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$209.32

Value

$164.52

PnL

+$6.75

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$109.59

Value

$109.59

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

alpheclabs2

Over

Invested

$132.72

Value

$96.33

PnL

-$36.39

Record

47%

1163-1315 (2478)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$118.46

Value

$95.23

PnL

-$23.24

Record

47%

11082-12418 (23500)

WagerWizard

Over

Invested

$100.8

Value

$81.82

PnL

-$18.98

Record

84%

14606-2798 (17404)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$23.01

Value

$49.86

PnL

+$26.84

Record

46%

8410-9880 (18290)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$48

Value

$48.8

PnL

+$0.4

Record

64%

1892-1053 (2945)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$36.38

Value

$36.18

PnL

-$0.2

Record

51%

7653-7369 (15022)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$49.78

Value

$35.95

PnL

-$13.83

Record

57%

12279-9333 (21612)

SlickRick123<$100

Over

Invested

$12.42

Value

$8.97

PnL

-$3.45

Record

48%

5273-5766 (11039)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$34.31

Value

$8.76

PnL

-$25.55

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.15

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$1.8

Record

49%

14327-15003 (29330)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 22 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 85%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.2%

15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$481.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

581.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.