Will Ararat-Armenia FA win on 2026-11-05?

12 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (48%) · Yes at 82¢ · $41K held · ended Nov 5

Yes82¢No18¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 48%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$40.7K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 81.5¢

+38% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 25 top traders (48%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes82%

No19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$31.2K

Total Shares33,902

Combined PnL+$2.8K

No13 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares10,813

Combined PnL-$766.49

Yes — 48%No — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 64¢	$20.6K	$21.1K	+$482.23	51% 25760-24462 (50222)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 45.3¢	$4.8K	$7.1K	+$2.2K	57% 2031-1503 (3534)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276CTR	Noavg 82.7¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$22.14	67% 2798-1381 (4179)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 60.5¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$54.13	53% 1430-1268 (2698)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 65.4¢	$2.6K	$1.4K	$-1.2K	53% 61372-53688 (115060)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 68.5¢	$731.53	$849.15	+$117.62
└ No leg	Noavg 65.4¢	$1.9K	$582.55	$-1.3K
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Yesavg 65.3¢	$804.92	$771.92	-$33	60% 2710-1808 (4518)
PT PT-S7ARB<$100	Yesavg 56.3¢	$1.2K	$720.02	-$5	49% 3217-3390 (6607)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56.3¢	$424.72	$479.05	+$73.41
└ No leg	Noavg 48.7¢	$321.25	$240.97	-$78.41
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Yesavg 52.1¢	$739.44	$718.07	-$21.37	52% 14498-13182 (27680)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Yesavg 63¢	$602.64	$709.94	+$107.29	46% 1540-1814 (3354)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 50.5¢	$1.9K	$659.44	+$513.41	48% 61189-65989 (127178)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44.7¢	$256.5	$467.3	+$834.26
└ No leg	Noavg 50.5¢	$524.93	$192.15	-$320.86
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 63.6¢	$473.86	$458.48	-$15.38	51% 1384-1348 (2732)
AV averagejoetradersCTR	Noavg 41¢	$494.45	$409.95	-$84.5	57% 645-487 (1132)
DI dips.	Yesavg 71.3¢	$435.04	$389.22	-$45.82	47% 10628-12140 (22768)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Noavg 42.1¢	$481.53	$388.57	-$92.96	54% 563-489 (1052)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 62.4¢	$570.78	$333.85	-$236.93	49% 14711-15381 (30092)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Noavg 33.5¢	$312.9	$290.05	-$22.85	47% 11713-13434 (25147)
└ No leg	Noavg 33.5¢	$165.8	$146.07	-$19.73
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 72¢	$147.09	$143.98	-$3.12
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 17.1¢	$144.01	$252.92	+$108.91	51% 37671-36895 (74566)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Yesavg 70.7¢	$153.46	$147.75	-$5.72	53% 23528-20740 (44268)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 70.7¢	$106	$95.25	-$10.75
└ No leg	Noavg 33¢	$47.46	$52.5	+$5.03
LI LilybaeumCTR	Noavg 46.6¢	$249.61	$144.86	-$104.75	61% 14367-9292 (23659)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Noavg 46.4¢	$590.7	$104.04	+$77.88	54% 9740-8132 (17872)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49.3¢	$45.67	$75.57	+$124.73
└ No leg	Noavg 46.4¢	$71.41	$28.47	-$46.85
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 76¢	$347.27	$84.51	-$262.76	50% 1329-1304 (2633)
US User7429<$100	Yesavg 66.1¢	$98.94	$73.79	-$0.42	56% 9114-7268 (16382)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 72.1¢	$74.82	$71.56	-$3.26	59% 32972-23149 (56121)
tradecraftARB<$100	Noavg 27.9¢	$64.49	$62.08	-$2.41	51% 6350-6138 (12488)
└ No leg	Noavg 27.9¢	$58.14	$32.27	-$25.87
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18¢	$6.35	$29.81	+$23.46
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 37.5¢	$47.68	$41.28	-$6.4	50% 21182-21443 (42625)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$20,572.14

Value

$21.1K

PnL

+$482.23

Record

51%

25760-24462 (50222)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$4,843.48

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

57%

2031-1503 (3534)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276CTR

Invested

$2,482.14

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$22.14

Record

67%

2798-1381 (4179)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$1,619.63

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$54.13

Record

53%

1430-1268 (2698)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$2,590.06

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

53%

61372-53688 (115060)

Both legs:

Yes$731.5368.5¢+$117.62

No$1,858.5365.4¢$-1.3K

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Yes

Invested

$804.92

Value

$771.92

PnL

-$33

Record

60%

2710-1808 (4518)

PT-S7ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,241.22

Value

$720.02

PnL

-$5

Record

49%

3217-3390 (6607)

Both legs:

Yes$424.7256.3¢+$73.41

No$321.2548.7¢-$78.41

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Yes

Invested

$739.44

Value

$718.07

PnL

-$21.37

Record

52%

14498-13182 (27680)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Yes

Invested

$602.64

Value

$709.94

PnL

+$107.29

Record

46%

1540-1814 (3354)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$1,877.51

Value

$659.44

PnL

+$513.41

Record

48%

61189-65989 (127178)

Both legs:

Yes$256.544.7¢+$834.26

No$524.9350.5¢-$320.86

VenusianCTR

Invested

$473.86

Value

$458.48

PnL

-$15.38

Record

51%

1384-1348 (2732)

averagejoetradersCTR

Invested

$494.45

Value

$409.95

PnL

-$84.5

Record

57%

645-487 (1132)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$435.04

Value

$389.22

PnL

-$45.82

Record

47%

10628-12140 (22768)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Invested

$481.53

Value

$388.57

PnL

-$92.96

Record

54%

563-489 (1052)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$570.78

Value

$333.85

PnL

-$236.93

Record

49%

14711-15381 (30092)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$312.9

Value

$290.05

PnL

-$22.85

Record

47%

11713-13434 (25147)

Both legs:

Invested

$144.01

Value

$252.92

PnL

+$108.91

Record

51%

37671-36895 (74566)

cigarettesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$153.46

Value

$147.75

PnL

-$5.72

Record

53%

23528-20740 (44268)

Both legs:

Yes$10670.7¢-$10.75

No$47.4633¢+$5.03

LilybaeumCTR

Invested

$249.61

Value

$144.86

PnL

-$104.75

Record

61%

14367-9292 (23659)

Pan9XARB<$100

Invested

$590.7

Value

$104.04

PnL

+$77.88

Record

54%

9740-8132 (17872)

Both legs:

Yes$45.6749.3¢+$124.73

No$71.4146.4¢-$46.85

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$347.27

Value

$84.51

PnL

-$262.76

Record

50%

1329-1304 (2633)

User7429<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.94

Value

$73.79

PnL

-$0.42

Record

56%

9114-7268 (16382)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.82

Value

$71.56

PnL

-$3.26

Record

59%

32972-23149 (56121)

tradecraftARB<$100

Invested

$64.49

Value

$62.08

PnL

-$2.41

Record

51%

6350-6138 (12488)

Both legs:

Invested

$47.68

Value

$41.28

PnL

-$6.4

Record

50%

21182-21443 (42625)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 25 top traders (48%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.