Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankndb1omnibus-076daa
Record (consensus markets)58% (4518–3290, n=7808)45% (573–710, n=1283)63% (987–572, n=1559)50% (15433–15507, n=30940)
Consensus PnL$7.8M$7.9M$3.2M$3.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #67PM monthly #3PM monthly #103PM monthly #60
Sides with the consensus68% (13 of 19 open)76% (26 of 34 open)75% (101 of 135 open)56% (86 of 153 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +9 pts n=444, ROI +6%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2281, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1399, ROI +4%
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=134—NFL −9 pts, n=139—
Settled positions, side won59% of 7054 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%92% of 11270 at avg 61¢, ROI +32%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1183)11% (won 80% of 61)13% (won 15% of 168)8% (won 60% of 874)
Entries 30–50¢24% (won 45% of 1724)35% (won 98% of 203)20% (won 39% of 256)21% (won 87% of 2384)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2055)35% (won 100% of 201)24% (won 58% of 314)38% (won 95% of 4296)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2092)20% (won 100% of 115)43% (won 93% of 550)33% (won 99% of 3716)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

13 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankndb1omnibus-076daa
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $4.5KNo $1.0K—Yes $154
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $278KYes $11KYes $3
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.4KYes $78K——
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
—No $407KNo $335K—
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus Yes
No $56No $90K——
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys
same side · consensus Tommy Paul
Tommy Paul $68K——Tommy Paul $137
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $51K——Yes $2.3K
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $22K—Yes $117
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $16K—Yes $215
CD Pamplona vs. SD Eibar: O/U 3.5
same side · consensus Over
Over $10K——Over $29
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $2.3K—Yes $64
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $1.0K—Yes $33
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
Yes $135——Yes $556
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $48——Yes $29
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $28—Yes $41