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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241BreakTheBanke46m3joseph00677
Record (consensus markets)56% (101–79, n=180)45% (547–663, n=1210)77% (10963–3272, n=14235)53% (10–9, n=19)
Consensus PnL$3.5M$11.0M$874K$5.6M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #373PM monthly #1PM monthly #3PM monthly #2
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position51% (58 of 113 open)57% (166 of 293 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • MLB +46 pts n=20, ROI +49%
  • Esports +35 pts n=28, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +30 pts n=52, ROI +38%
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
  • Crypto +44 pts n=105, ROI +74%
  • Soccer +16 pts n=1115, ROI +27%
  • NBA +14 pts n=145, ROI +19%
Weakest topic——Politics −1 pts, n=49—
Settled positions, side won94% of 111 at avg 58¢, ROI +42%97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%63% of 4902 at avg 55¢, ROI +25%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%
Entries under 30¢7% (won 75% of 8)10% (won 81% of 57)38% (won 20% of 1850)12% (won 0% of 2)
Entries 30–50¢26% (won 93% of 29)36% (won 98% of 201)7% (won 54% of 350)6% (won 0% of 1)
Entries 50–70¢42% (won 96% of 47)35% (won 99% of 196)9% (won 73% of 444)65% (won 73% of 11)
Entries 70¢ and up24% (won 96% of 27)19% (won 100% of 109)46% (won 98% of 2258)18% (won 67% of 3)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

12 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241BreakTheBanke46m3joseph00677
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $88KNo $16—
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $77KNo $186—
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $43KNo $2.3K—
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $36KNo $572—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $7.8KNo $26K—
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $21KNo $35—
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $418No $18K—
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $4.2KNo $900—
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
same side · consensus No
—No $331KNo $19K—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $236KYes $8.4K—
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $131KNo $3—
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
—No $125KNo $332—
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $42KNo $12K—
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $52KNo $458—
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $42KNo $248—
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
—No $22KNo $343—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $3.6KNo $245—
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
—No $607No $2.5K—
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
—No $747No $2.3K—
Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
—No $2.4KNo $407—