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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| 38791873984189 | surfandturf | BreakTheBank | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (5778–6961, n=12739) | 52% (273–252, n=525) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 61% (495–320, n=815) |
| Consensus PnL | $26K | $4.1M | $10.6M | $4.8M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #943 | was PM monthly #326 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #51 |
| Sides with the consensus | 61% (149 of 244 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) | 90% (147 of 164 open) | 50% (5 of 10 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Soccer −1 pts, n=391 | NFL −11 pts, n=58 | — | Soccer ±0 pts, n=115 |
| Settled positions, side won | 46% of 1801 at avg 45¢, ROI +1% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 60% of 822 at avg 48¢, ROI +5% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 7% of 326) | 20% (won 12% of 109) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 15% (won 29% of 125) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 64% (won 48% of 1149) | 21% (won 46% of 114) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 34% (won 58% of 283) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 9% (won 64% of 162) | 33% (won 60% of 176) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 43% (won 69% of 354) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 9% (won 90% of 164) | 26% (won 82% of 137) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 7% (won 80% of 60) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
12 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | 38791873984189 | surfandturf | BreakTheBank | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $1.1K | — | No $253K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus No | No $4.9K | — | Yes $18K | — |
| Wizards vs. Magic opposite sides · consensus Magic | Wizards $333 | — | — | Magic $15K |
| Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | — | No $2.7K | — | Yes $6.4K |
| Spread: Seahawks (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Bears | Bears $155 | — | — | Seahawks $4.1K |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Francisco Cerundolo opposite sides · consensus Francisco Cerundolo | Francisco Cerundolo $620 | — | — | Arthur Rinderknech $561 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $239 | — | Yes $274K | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | No $55 | — | No $202K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $354 | — | No $114K | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus No | Yes $15 | — | Yes $85K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $1.1K | — | Yes $83K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $478 | — | Yes $31K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $1.2K | — | No $30K | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $845 | — | Yes $29K | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $485 | — | No $25K | — |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $34 | — | Yes $22K | — |
| Spread: Seahawks (-13.5) same side · consensus Bears | Seahawks $184 | — | — | Seahawks $3.1K |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $7 | — | Yes $2.6K | — |