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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| AmericaFirst1 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 65% (2087–1126, n=3213) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | $2.4K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #750 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 59% (10 of 17 open) | 56% (82 of 146 open) | 72% (78 of 108 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 98% of 1497 at avg 70¢, ROI +34% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 52% of 21) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 16% (won 96% of 244) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 32% (won 97% of 482) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 50% (won 100% of 750) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
10 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | AmericaFirst1 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Jets (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Raiders | Jets $54 | Raiders $2.7K | Raiders $24K | — |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | Cardinals $28 | Cowboys $1.4K | Cardinals $3.0K | — |
| Spread: Steelers (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Browns | — | Steelers $1.9K | Browns $297K | — |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cowboys $12K | Cardinals $59K | — |
| Spread: Raiders (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Jets | — | Jets $109 | Raiders $17K | — |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-10.5) opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers | Buccaneers $390 | Falcons $2.7K | — | — |
| Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 50.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $415 | Over $1.3K | — | — |
| Spread: Bills (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | Bills $734 | Ravens $647 | — | — |
| Ravens vs. Bills same side · consensus Bills | — | Bills $28K | Bills $378K | — |
| Raiders vs. Jets same side · consensus Raiders | Raiders $1.1K | — | Raiders $171K | — |
| Spread: Jets (-1.5) same side · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $4.3K | Raiders $104K | — |
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) same side · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $18K | Bills $51K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $228 | Magic $51K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $161 | Magic $13K | — |
| Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 52.5 same side · consensus Under | Under $51 | Under $7.2K | — | — |
| Spread: Bills (-10.5) same side · consensus Ravens | Bills $232 | Bills $4.0K | — | — |
| Spread: Bills (-17.5) same side · consensus Ravens | Bills $55 | Bills $2.5K | — | — |
| Spread: Bills (-16.5) same side · consensus Bills | Bills $286 | Bills $93 | — | — |