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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | extractive-manatee | ndb1 | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (547–663, n=1210) | 35% (511–968, n=1479) | 66% (876–458, n=1334) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $11.0M | $44K | $4.1M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #996 | PM monthly #26 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 68% (77 of 114 open) | 47% (14 of 30 open) | 74% (28 of 38 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | — | NBA −1 pts, n=322 | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 22% of 1570 at avg 21¢, ROI 0% | 64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 81% of 57) | 71% (won 5% of 1111) | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 36% (won 98% of 201) | 12% (won 42% of 185) | 20% (won 40% of 253) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 99% of 196) | 8% (won 64% of 130) | 24% (won 57% of 310) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 19% (won 100% of 109) | 9% (won 91% of 144) | 43% (won 93% of 544) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
8 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.