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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | ndb1 | rainbowlilies | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (573–710, n=1283) | 66% (901–474, n=1375) | 43% (2912–3894, n=6806) | 47% (13863–15370, n=29233) |
| Consensus PnL | $9.4M | $4.5M | $162K | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #3 | PM monthly #100 | PM monthly #572 | PM monthly #29 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 85% (29 of 34 open) | 72% (109 of 151 open) | 54% (143 of 264 open) | 50% (13 of 26 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | — | NFL −9 pts, n=139 | Soccer −1 pts, n=544 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 7% of 5875 at avg 5¢, ROI 0% | 94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 11% (won 80% of 61) | 13% (won 15% of 168) | 96% (won 5% of 5667) | 10% (won 57% of 2538) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 35% (won 98% of 203) | 20% (won 39% of 256) | 2% (won 36% of 108) | 22% (won 94% of 5565) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 100% of 201) | 24% (won 58% of 314) | 1% (won 70% of 64) | 36% (won 99% of 9017) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 20% (won 100% of 115) | 43% (won 93% of 550) | 1% (won 83% of 36) | 33% (won 100% of 8250) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
14 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.