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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Erasmus. | RN1 | BreakTheBank | CORGII | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 71% (391–156, n=547) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 62% (393–245, n=638) |
| Consensus PnL | $516K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $4.5M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #184 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #68 |
| Sides with the consensus | 75% (9 of 12 open) | 56% (84 of 149 open) | 72% (78 of 108 open) | 0% (0 of 4 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Elections −5 pts, n=122 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 74% of 573 at avg 69¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 20% (won 13% of 117) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 9% (won 92% of 36) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 8% (won 44% of 43) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 56% (won 99% of 223) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 8% (won 65% of 46) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 33% (won 100% of 133) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 64% (won 98% of 367) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 2% (won 100% of 7) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
6 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Erasmus. | RN1 | BreakTheBank | CORGII |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Steelers (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Browns | — | Steelers $1.9K | Browns $297K | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $6.2K | — | No $184K | — |
| Raiders vs. Jets opposite sides · consensus Raiders | — | Jets $11K | Raiders $171K | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $48K | — | Yes $77K | — |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cowboys $12K | Cardinals $59K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.6K | — | No $35K | — |
| Spread: Raiders (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Jets | — | Jets $43 | Raiders $17K | — |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cowboys $1.4K | Cardinals $3.0K | — |
| Ravens vs. Bills same side · consensus Bills | — | Bills $28K | Bills $378K | — |
| Spread: Jets (-1.5) same side · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $4.3K | Raiders $104K | — |
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) same side · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $18K | Bills $51K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $228 | Magic $51K | — |
| Spread: Jets (-2.5) same side · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $2.7K | Raiders $24K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $161 | Magic $13K | — |