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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| PMTraderAdam | BreakTheBank | RN1 | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 83% (693–143, n=836) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | $29K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 89% (48 of 54 open) | 73% (73 of 100 open) | 53% (57 of 108 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Mentions −5 pts, n=42 | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 81% of 932 at avg 76¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 11% (won 17% of 106) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 50% of 60) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 10% (won 71% of 92) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 72% (won 96% of 674) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | PMTraderAdam | BreakTheBank | RN1 | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.3K | No $184K | — | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $1.4K | Yes $77K | — | — |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cardinals $59K | Cowboys $12K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $1.1K | Yes $37K | — | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $1.6K | No $35K | — | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $1.5K | Yes $28K | — | — |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $788 | No $10K | — | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus No | No $5.7K | Yes $1.1K | — | — |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cardinals $3.0K | Cowboys $1.4K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $51K | Magic $228 | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $13K | Magic $161 | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $3 | No $590 | — | — |