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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
RLWGBreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)49% (5910–6260, n=12170)45% (526–640, n=1166)
Consensus PnL$17K$10.6M
Tracked asPM monthly #645PM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus52% (32 of 62 open)73% (79 of 108 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topic——
Settled positions, side won94% of 759 at avg 52¢, ROI +46%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢6% (won 50% of 46)10% (won 85% of 53)
Entries 30–50¢25% (won 92% of 190)36% (won 98% of 192)
Entries 50–70¢62% (won 98% of 473)35% (won 99% of 187)
Entries 70¢ and up7% (won 100% of 50)20% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

12 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketRLWGBreakTheBank
Browns vs. Steelers
opposite sides · consensus Steelers
Steelers $7Browns $255K
Spread: Jets (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Raiders
Jets $5Raiders $104K
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus Magic
Celtics $19Magic $76K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $22Yes $51K
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $45Yes $37K
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus No
No $30No $411K
Ravens vs. Bills
same side · consensus Bills
Bills $86Bills $378K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $14Yes $272K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
No $3No $184K
Raiders vs. Jets
same side · consensus Raiders
Raiders $59Raiders $171K
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $6No $89K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
Yes $4Yes $77K
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $4Yes $72K
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
No $17No $35K
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
Yes $6Yes $28K
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
No $1No $10K
Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $23No $2.4K