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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
ScottyNoooRN1BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)37% (315–542, n=857)48% (12823–13908, n=26731)45% (526–640, n=1166)
Consensus PnL$910K$13.4M$10.6M
Tracked asHand-pickedPM monthly #24 + pinnedPM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus56% (79 of 142 open)53% (63 of 118 open)72% (73 of 102 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topicGeopolitics −2 pts, n=308——
Settled positions, side won44% of 1112 at avg 45¢, ROI −3%94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢50% (won 4% of 557)10% (won 56% of 2534)10% (won 85% of 53)
Entries 30–50¢7% (won 32% of 77)22% (won 94% of 5497)36% (won 98% of 192)
Entries 50–70¢4% (won 55% of 44)36% (won 99% of 8897)35% (won 99% of 187)
Entries 70¢ and up39% (won 96% of 434)31% (won 100% of 7736)20% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

12 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketScottyNoooRN1BreakTheBank
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $9.4K—No $252K
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $29—No $214K
Cardinals vs. Cowboys
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
—Cowboys $12KCardinals $59K
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $9.7K—Yes $37K
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $3.5K—No $35K
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $2.2K—Yes $28K
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $35—No $6.4K
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
—Cowboys $1.4KCardinals $3.0K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $15K—Yes $272K
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $40K—Yes $169K
Spread: Bills (-3.5)
same side · consensus Ravens
—Bills $18KBills $51K
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)
same side · consensus Magic
—Magic $228Magic $51K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $11K—No $40K
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
same side · consensus Magic
—Magic $161Magic $13K
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $11K—No $590
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $7.1K—Yes $4.1K
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $833—Yes $4.7K
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $844—Yes $4.6K
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $4.6K—No $747
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
Yes $1.2K—Yes $943