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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Warren-Buffett | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 66% (432–218, n=650) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) |
| Consensus PnL | $119K | $10.6M | $5.8M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 51% (25 of 49 open) | 72% (74 of 103 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 64% (98 of 152 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Soccer −3 pts, n=36 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 60% of 1105 at avg 57¢, ROI 0% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 35% (won 8% of 391) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 49% of 69) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 9% (won 69% of 95) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 50% (won 97% of 550) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
10 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Warren-Buffett | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns vs. Steelers opposite sides · consensus Steelers | — | Browns $255K | — | Steelers $5.5K |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $2.8K | No $184K | — | — |
| Raiders vs. Jets opposite sides · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $171K | — | Jets $192 |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cardinals $59K | — | Cowboys $11K |
| Spread: Raiders (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Jets | — | Raiders $17K | — | Jets $400 |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers | — | Falcons $8.6K | — | Buccaneers $1.9K |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cardinals | — | Cardinals $3.0K | — | Cowboys $1.4K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2.8K | Yes $169K | — | — |
| Spread: Jets (-1.5) same side · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $104K | — | Raiders $2.3K |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2.2K | Yes $71K | — | — |
| Spread: Cowboys (-7.5) same side · consensus Cardinals | — | Cardinals $35K | — | Cardinals $714 |
| Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $3.8K | No $24K | — | — |
| Spread: Jets (-2.5) same side · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $24K | — | Raiders $1.1K |
| Spread: Jaguars (-10.5) same side · consensus Jaguars | — | Jaguars $20K | — | Jaguars $643 |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $3.5K | Yes $4.1K | — | — |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $1.0K | Yes $4.7K | — | — |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $1.3K | Yes $2.2K | — | — |