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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| mountaindewd | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 56% (288–230, n=518) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) |
| Consensus PnL | $174K | $5.8M | $10.6M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #477 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 81% (29 of 36 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 72% (73 of 102 open) | 53% (62 of 117 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −2 pts, n=58 | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 71% of 520 at avg 57¢, ROI +12% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 21% of 92) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 19% (won 65% of 98) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 28% (won 75% of 145) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 36% (won 95% of 185) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
12 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | mountaindewd | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $2.5K | — | Yes $73K | — |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | — | Cardinals $59K | Cowboys $12K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $8.3K | — | No $35K | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $3.6K | — | Yes $28K | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $5.0K | — | No $22K | — |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | — | Cardinals $3.0K | Cowboys $1.4K |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $1.8K | — | Yes $272K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $8.8K | — | Yes $169K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $149 | — | No $102K | — |
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) same side · consensus Ravens | — | — | Bills $51K | Bills $18K |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | — | Magic $51K | Magic $228 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus No | No $2.1K | — | No $40K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2.9K | — | Yes $38K | — |
| Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $3.7K | — | No $24K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | — | Magic $13K | Magic $161 |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2.1K | — | Yes $4.1K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $2.1K | — | No $590 | — |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $278 | — | Yes $2.3K | — |