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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
troimRN1BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)35% (290–531, n=821)48% (12823–13908, n=26731)45% (526–640, n=1166)
Consensus PnL$89K$13.4M$10.6M
Tracked asPM monthly #895 + pinnedPM monthly #24 + pinnedPM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus45% (33 of 74 open)58% (85 of 147 open)72% (79 of 109 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won65% of 571 at avg 41¢, ROI +9%94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢41% (won 33% of 234)10% (won 56% of 2534)10% (won 85% of 53)
Entries 30–50¢17% (won 77% of 97)22% (won 94% of 5497)36% (won 98% of 192)
Entries 50–70¢24% (won 90% of 135)36% (won 99% of 8897)35% (won 99% of 187)
Entries 70¢ and up18% (won 96% of 105)31% (won 100% of 7736)20% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

7 on the same side, 11 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarkettroimRN1BreakTheBank
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $1.3K—No $411K
Spread: Steelers (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Browns
—Steelers $1.9KBrowns $297K
Browns vs. Steelers
opposite sides · consensus Steelers
—Steelers $6.0KBrowns $255K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $1.1K—No $252K
Cardinals vs. Cowboys
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
—Cowboys $12KCardinals $59K
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $5.6K—Yes $37K
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.2K—Yes $38K
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $2.0K—No $24K
Spread: Raiders (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Jets
—Jets $109Raiders $17K
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $3.8K—No $10K
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
—Cowboys $1.4KCardinals $3.0K
Ravens vs. Bills
same side · consensus Bills
—Bills $22KBills $378K
Spread: Jets (-1.5)
same side · consensus Raiders
—Raiders $4.3KRaiders $104K
Spread: Bills (-3.5)
same side · consensus Ravens
—Bills $18KBills $51K
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)
same side · consensus Magic
—Magic $228Magic $51K
Spread: Jets (-2.5)
same side · consensus Raiders
—Raiders $2.7KRaiders $24K
Spread: Jaguars (-10.5)
same side · consensus Jaguars
—Jaguars $1.1KJaguars $20K
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
same side · consensus Magic
—Magic $161Magic $13K