Hersonissos 3: Oskari Paldanius vs Raul Brancaccio

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Oskari Paldanius (59%) · Oskari Paldanius at 52¢ · $136K held · ends Nov 17

Oskari Paldanius52¢Raul Brancaccio48¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oskari Paldanius

Consensus Traders

Oskari Paldanius 59%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$135.6K

Combined PnL

$14.8K

Smart Money Entry

68.6¢ → 51.5¢

-25% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralOskari Paldanius at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oskari Paldanius

10 of 17 top traders (59%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oskari Paldanius52%

Raul Brancaccio49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raul Brancaccio7 traders

Total Value$65.0K

Total Shares125,087

Combined PnL+$29.7K

Oskari Paldanius10 traders

Total Value$35.6K

Total Shares72,039

Combined PnL$-14.9K

Raul Brancaccio — 41%Oskari Paldanius — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Oskari Paldanius. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOskari Paldanius 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperRaul Brancaccio 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOskari Paldanius 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedOskari Paldanius 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Oskari Paldanius 67% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR crazyoddsloverCTR	Raul Brancaccioavg 27.8¢	$33.3K	$62.4K	+$29.0K	— 6-5 (11)
RN1ARB<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 66.6¢	$33.8K	$28.3K	$-5.5K	58% 3749-2704 (6453)
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 66.6¢	$25.9K	$21.4K	$-4.5K
└ Raul Brancaccio leg	Raul Brancaccioavg 51.6¢	$8.0K	$6.9K	$-1.0K
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Oskari Paldaniusavg 72.9¢	$41.3K	$27.2K	$-14.1K	54% 1609-1354 (2963)
LI LightParadox	Oskari Paldaniusavg 53.3¢	$4.3K	$3.8K	-$398.07	24% 202-637 (839)
VE Venusian	Oskari Paldaniusavg 53.3¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$96.88	24% 205-642 (847)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Raul Brancaccioavg 57.1¢	$2.9K	$1.9K	-$387.28	16% 62-332 (394)
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 51.1¢	$996.94	$1.0K	-$200.84
└ Raul Brancaccio leg	Raul Brancaccioavg 57.1¢	$1.0K	$871	-$186.45
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 59¢	$3.9K	$1.8K	-$321.84	48% 767-833 (1600)
└ Raul Brancaccio leg	Raul Brancaccioavg 44¢	$791.38	$926.19	+$11.83
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 59¢	$1.1K	$876.83	-$333.68
0X 0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8CTR	Raul Brancaccioavg 33.3¢	$967.43	$1.5K	+$544.66	— 0-1 (1)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Oskari Paldaniusavg 55¢	$1.1K	$960	-$140	8% 71-772 (843)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Raul Brancaccioavg 48.1¢	$709.96	$851.02	+$150.42	35% 171-317 (488)
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 35.3¢	$324.22	$440.69	+$119.6
└ Raul Brancaccio leg	Raul Brancaccioavg 48.1¢	$379.5	$410.32	+$30.82
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 49.8¢	$649.22	$642.4	-$6.82	56% 3782-2946 (6728)
└ Raul Brancaccio leg	Raul Brancaccioavg 50.8¢	$310.01	$335.83	+$25.83
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 49.8¢	$339.22	$306.57	-$32.65
0X 0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8CTR	Raul Brancaccioavg 38.1¢	$436.4	$595.4	+$159	— 1-0 (1)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Raul Brancaccioavg 50.1¢	$487.53	$506.07	+$18.54	25% 204-624 (828)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 53¢	$474.73	$434.09	-$40.64	33% 287-590 (877)
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 53¢	$366.92	$311.45	-$55.48
└ Raul Brancaccio leg	Raul Brancaccioavg 48.3¢	$107.8	$122.64	+$14.84
LI LimousinARB<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 49.5¢	$417.11	$397.35	-$19.76	24% 201-647 (848)
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 49.5¢	$332.37	$312.37	-$19.99
└ Raul Brancaccio leg	Raul Brancaccioavg 53.4¢	$84.74	$84.97	+$0.23
tradecraftARB<$100	Raul Brancaccioavg 57¢	$395.98	$366.37	-$29.61	14% 95-564 (659)
└ Raul Brancaccio leg	Raul Brancaccioavg 57¢	$245.79	$209.18	-$36.61
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 49.2¢	$150.2	$157.2	+$7
CI cigarettes	Oskari Paldaniusavg 48.6¢	$291.5	$330	+$38.5	52% 5320-4824 (10144)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 69.4¢	$315.56	$262.13	-$53.44	52% 54-49 (103)
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 69.4¢	$251.34	$208.15	-$43.19
└ Raul Brancaccio leg	Raul Brancaccioavg 50.6¢	$64.22	$53.98	-$10.24
TH thirdt1me	Oskari Paldaniusavg 50¢	$2.3K	$231.65	-$193.97	35% 60-113 (173)
BA babybells	Oskari Paldaniusavg 51.6¢	$401.03	$153.81	-$78.01	16% 68-358 (426)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Oskari Paldaniusavg 27.1¢	$78.18	$138.54	+$60.36	22% 85-293 (378)
DA darkumbreon88	Oskari Paldaniusavg 49.9¢	$91.68	$101.07	+$9.39	61% 891-567 (1458)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Raul Brancaccioavg 56.7¢	$103.89	$28.98	+$6.08	18% 108-480 (588)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Raul Brancaccioavg 45¢	$20.43	$20.43	+$0	30% 160-377 (537)
TRCMCTR<$100	Raul Brancaccioavg 54¢	$21.01	$17.51	-$3.5	6% 28-412 (440)

crazyoddsloverCTR

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$33,341.59

Value

$62.4K

PnL

+$29.0K

Record

—

6-5 (11)

RN1ARB<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$33,833.71

Value

$28.3K

PnL

$-5.5K

Record

58%

3749-2704 (6453)

Both legs:

Oskari Paldanius$25,88366.6¢$-4.5K

Raul Brancaccio$7,950.7151.6¢$-1.0K

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$41,332.89

Value

$27.2K

PnL

$-14.1K

Record

54%

1609-1354 (2963)

LightParadox

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$4,302.11

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$398.07

Record

24%

202-637 (839)

Venusian

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$2,725.73

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$96.88

Record

24%

205-642 (847)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$2,884.12

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$387.28

Record

16%

62-332 (394)

Both legs:

Oskari Paldanius$996.9451.1¢-$200.84

Raul Brancaccio$1,024.9857.1¢-$186.45

38791873984189ARB<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$3,911.71

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$321.84

Record

48%

767-833 (1600)

Both legs:

Raul Brancaccio$791.3844¢+$11.83

Oskari Paldanius$1,066.5359¢-$333.68

0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8CTR

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$967.43

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$544.66

Record

—

0-1 (1)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$1,100

Value

$960

PnL

-$140

Record

71-772 (843)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$709.96

Value

$851.02

PnL

+$150.42

Record

35%

171-317 (488)

Both legs:

Oskari Paldanius$324.2235.3¢+$119.6

Raul Brancaccio$379.548.1¢+$30.82

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$649.22

Value

$642.4

PnL

-$6.82

Record

56%

3782-2946 (6728)

Both legs:

Raul Brancaccio$310.0150.8¢+$25.83

Oskari Paldanius$339.2249.8¢-$32.65

0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8CTR

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$436.4

Value

$595.4

PnL

+$159

Record

—

1-0 (1)

MadridTimeCTR

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$487.53

Value

$506.07

PnL

+$18.54

Record

25%

204-624 (828)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$474.73

Value

$434.09

PnL

-$40.64

Record

33%

287-590 (877)

Both legs:

Oskari Paldanius$366.9253¢-$55.48

Raul Brancaccio$107.848.3¢+$14.84

LimousinARB<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$417.11

Value

$397.35

PnL

-$19.76

Record

24%

201-647 (848)

Both legs:

Oskari Paldanius$332.3749.5¢-$19.99

Raul Brancaccio$84.7453.4¢+$0.23

tradecraftARB<$100

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$395.98

Value

$366.37

PnL

-$29.61

Record

14%

95-564 (659)

Both legs:

Raul Brancaccio$245.7957¢-$36.61

Oskari Paldanius$150.249.2¢+$7

cigarettes

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$291.5

Value

$330

PnL

+$38.5

Record

52%

5320-4824 (10144)

EulhunterARB<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$315.56

Value

$262.13

PnL

-$53.44

Record

52%

54-49 (103)

Both legs:

Oskari Paldanius$251.3469.4¢-$43.19

Raul Brancaccio$64.2250.6¢-$10.24

thirdt1me

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$2,260.13

Value

$231.65

PnL

-$193.97

Record

35%

60-113 (173)

babybells

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$401.03

Value

$153.81

PnL

-$78.01

Record

16%

68-358 (426)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$78.18

Value

$138.54

PnL

+$60.36

Record

22%

85-293 (378)

darkumbreon88

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$91.68

Value

$101.07

PnL

+$9.39

Record

61%

891-567 (1458)

SchruteBucksCTR

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$103.89

Value

$28.98

PnL

+$6.08

Record

18%

108-480 (588)

sentrioCTR<$100

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$20.43

Value

$20.43

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

160-377 (537)

TRCMCTR<$100

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$21.01

Value

$17.51

PnL

-$3.5

Record

28-412 (440)

Research grade

NeutralOskari Paldanius at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Oskari Paldanius

10 of 17 top traders (59%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Oskari Paldanius. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOskari Paldanius 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperRaul Brancaccio 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOskari Paldanius 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedOskari Paldanius 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Oskari Paldanius 67% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oskari Paldanius wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.