Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-11-04?

20 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 100¢ · $107K held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$106.8K

Combined PnL

$951.32

Smart Money Entry

95.5¢ → 99.9¢

+4% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 29 top traders (69%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No20 traders

Total Value$104.5K

Total Shares107,728

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares56,216

Combined PnL-$325.74

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KY Kyn008	Noavg 95¢	$46.8K	$47.1K	+$246.55	49% 281-298 (579)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 95.3¢	$20.1K	$21.0K	+$897.66	49% 14327-15003 (29330)
CA Cannae	Noavg 95¢	$7.3K	$7.3K	+$38.06	53% 16518-14663 (31181)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 95¢	$6.0K	$5.5K	+$34.27	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
BA BABELCONSTEL	Noavg 99.6¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	-$4.22	68% 629-302 (931)
NM NM-P	Noavg 95¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$23.27	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
GC GC-P	Noavg 95¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$23.55	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 98.6¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$26.73	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
PU purplegattoCTR	Yesavg 5¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$249	49% 6204-6345 (12549)
RN1	Noavg 97.4¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$1.71	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
LI Limousin	Noavg 98.6¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$15.9	54% 1193-1031 (2224)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$36.45	50% 36339-35820 (72159)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 97.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$24.48	52% 1149-1045 (2194)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 99.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$92.37	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
VE Venusian	Noavg 95.5¢	$749.9	$754.18	+$4.27	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
PA pauleta23	Noavg 99¢	$600.3	$601.82	+$1.52	66% 23991-12174 (36165)
RI RichieRicher	Noavg 98.4¢	$239.44	$239.59	+$0.15	54% 773-664 (1437)
ZaiZoiBele	Noavg 99¢	$173.31	$173.43	+$0.11	80% 5236-1333 (6569)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 95¢	$93.4	$93.02	-$0.38	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$75.64	$74.72	-$0.92	52% 14229-13002 (27231)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 95¢	$47.5	$47.75	+$0.25	51% 6278-6033 (12311)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$122.99	$47.44	-$75.55	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$5.76	$26.93	+$21.17	47% 10359-11793 (22152)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$36.65	$13.49	-$23.16	58% 1993-1472 (3465)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$4.32	$4.12	-$0.2	51% 7653-7369 (15022)

Kyn008

Invested

$46,845.14

Value

$47.1K

PnL

+$246.55

Record

49%

281-298 (579)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$20,064.87

Value

$21.0K

PnL

+$897.66

Record

49%

14327-15003 (29330)

Cannae

Invested

$7,255.07

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$38.06

Record

53%

16518-14663 (31181)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$5,961.38

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$34.27

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

BABELCONSTEL

Invested

$4,500.84

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$4.22

Record

68%

629-302 (931)

NM-P

Invested

$3,826.13

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$23.27

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

GC-P

Invested

$3,788.48

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$23.55

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

MadridTime

Invested

$2,661.48

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$26.73

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

purplegattoCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,490

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$249

Record

49%

6204-6345 (12549)

RN1

Invested

$2,186.89

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.71

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

Limousin

Invested

$1,248.9

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$15.9

Record

54%

1193-1031 (2224)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,159.73

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$36.45

Record

50%

36339-35820 (72159)

LightParadox

Invested

$1,076.4

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$24.48

Record

52%

1149-1045 (2194)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,146.44

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$92.37

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

Venusian

Invested

$749.9

Value

$754.18

PnL

+$4.27

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

pauleta23

Invested

$600.3

Value

$601.82

PnL

+$1.52

Record

66%

23991-12174 (36165)

RichieRicher

Invested

$239.44

Value

$239.59

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

773-664 (1437)

ZaiZoiBele

Invested

$173.31

Value

$173.43

PnL

+$0.11

Record

80%

5236-1333 (6569)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$93.4

Value

$93.02

PnL

-$0.38

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$75.64

Value

$74.72

PnL

-$0.92

Record

52%

14229-13002 (27231)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$47.5

Value

$47.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

6278-6033 (12311)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$122.99

Value

$47.44

PnL

-$75.55

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.76

Value

$26.93

PnL

+$21.17

Record

47%

10359-11793 (22152)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.65

Value

$13.49

PnL

-$23.16

Record

58%

1993-1472 (3465)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.32

Value

$4.12

PnL

-$0.2

Record

51%

7653-7369 (15022)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

20 of 29 top traders (69%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.