Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs

29 of 54 top Polymarket traders hold TheMongolz (54%) · TheMongolz at 72¢ · $790K held · ends Nov 7

TheMongolz72¢Natus Vincere28¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

TheMongolz

Consensus Traders

TheMongolz 54%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$790.0K

Combined PnL

$20.3K

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 71.5¢

+41% since entry · 29 traders

Research grade

NeutralTheMongolz at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

TheMongolz

29 of 54 top traders (54%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

TheMongolz72%

Natus Vincere28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

TheMongolz29 traders

Total Value$409.5K

Total Shares740,848

Combined PnL+$34.1K

Natus Vincere25 traders

Total Value$322.0K

Total Shares537,045

Combined PnL$-13.8K

TheMongolz — 54%Natus Vincere — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl	TheMongolzavg 62.1¢	$252.4K	$246.1K	$-6.3K	54% 26-22 (48)
FA fantasy7788CTR	Natus Vincereavg 72.6¢	$101.4K	$97.8K	$-3.6K	43% 100-134 (234)
LL lllllllIlllCTR	Natus Vincereavg 68¢	$68.0K	$70.0K	+$2.0K	54% 319-276 (595)
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18	TheMongolzavg 29.5¢	$22.1K	$52.9K	+$30.8K	50% 7663-7808 (15471)
NS NS13CTR	Natus Vincereavg 39.2¢	$36.6K	$35.1K	$-1.6K	52% 440-406 (846)
NeimukingCTR	Natus Vincereavg 67.5¢	$25.8K	$26.8K	+$973.29	60% 70-46 (116)
KJ kjhgkltivtvriurCTR	Natus Vincereavg 71¢	$25.4K	$25.0K	-$535.68	— 5-2 (7)
TI ticklepickles444	TheMongolzavg 38.1¢	$14.3K	$23.6K	+$9.2K	— 11-8 (19)
MA Mastermoney	TheMongolzavg 39.7¢	$29.8K	$22.5K	$-7.3K	48% 249-265 (514)
PE PerpsKing	TheMongolzavg 32.7¢	$22.1K	$20.3K	-$764.31	— 2-1 (3)
forsenxd	TheMongolzavg 26.9¢	$7.9K	$15.0K	+$9.0K	53% 1117-978 (2095)
relativesignificanceCTR	Natus Vincereavg 68.5¢	$12.2K	$12.4K	+$271.59	57% 154-114 (268)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 45.9¢	$9.2K	$10.5K	+$1.3K	56% 8185-6496 (14681)
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 42.4¢	$4.5K	$7.4K	+$2.9K
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 45.9¢	$4.7K	$3.1K	$-1.6K
CR crmannetjeCTR	Natus Vincereavg 53.6¢	$14.4K	$10.4K	$-4.1K	50% 27-27 (54)
DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100	TheMongolzavg 50.3¢	$12.7K	$10.2K	+$66.36	53% 2195-1945 (4140)
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 50.3¢	$5.3K	$7.5K	+$2.1K
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 51.6¢	$4.7K	$2.7K	$-2.1K
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Natus Vincereavg 57¢	$8.0K	$9.8K	+$1.8K	53% 6319-5602 (11921)
minjiARB<$100	TheMongolzavg 42.6¢	$7.9K	$9.6K	+$1.7K	52% 1910-1754 (3664)
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 42.6¢	$4.8K	$6.8K	+$2.0K
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 43.9¢	$3.2K	$2.9K	-$316.03
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 51.2¢	$8.1K	$9.2K	+$1.1K	52% 14641-13306 (27947)
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 41.1¢	$4.0K	$6.8K	+$2.8K
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 51.2¢	$4.1K	$2.4K	$-1.7K
RI Richidd	TheMongolzavg 64.2¢	$12.5K	$8.9K	$-1.8K	49% 59-62 (121)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	TheMongolzavg 46.9¢	$6.6K	$7.2K	+$611.92	57% 19418-14368 (33786)
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 46.9¢	$3.8K	$5.6K	+$1.8K
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 54.3¢	$2.8K	$1.6K	$-1.2K
CA calculate10CTR	Natus Vincereavg 61.5¢	$15.4K	$6.2K	$-7.5K	54% 1327-1144 (2471)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	TheMongolzavg 61¢	$6.0K	$6.2K	+$148.43	50% 570-572 (1142)
VI vibing123CTR	Natus Vincereavg 67.8¢	$8.9K	$6.1K	+$61.67	52% 1663-1556 (3219)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 62.3¢	$5.5K	$5.3K	-$183.58	52% 8958-8128 (17086)
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 44.6¢	$2.5K	$3.6K	+$1.1K
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 62.3¢	$3.0K	$1.8K	$-1.2K
JO JokerTheClownCTR	Natus Vincereavg 70.1¢	$4.9K	$4.9K	-$4.86	51% 4162-4030 (8192)

Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl

TheMongolz

Invested

$252,398.08

Value

$246.1K

PnL

$-6.3K

Record

54%

26-22 (48)

fantasy7788CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$101,420.82

Value

$97.8K

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

43%

100-134 (234)

lllllllIlllCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$68,000

Value

$70.0K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

54%

319-276 (595)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18

TheMongolz

Invested

$22,099.99

Value

$52.9K

PnL

+$30.8K

Record

50%

7663-7808 (15471)

NS13CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$36,638.59

Value

$35.1K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

52%

440-406 (846)

NeimukingCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$25,778.88

Value

$26.8K

PnL

+$973.29

Record

60%

70-46 (116)

kjhgkltivtvriurCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$25,375

Value

$25.0K

PnL

-$535.68

Record

—

5-2 (7)

ticklepickles444

TheMongolz

Invested

$14,347.96

Value

$23.6K

PnL

+$9.2K

Record

—

11-8 (19)

Mastermoney

TheMongolz

Invested

$29,785.63

Value

$22.5K

PnL

$-7.3K

Record

48%

249-265 (514)

PerpsKing

TheMongolz

Invested

$22,091.51

Value

$20.3K

PnL

-$764.31

Record

—

2-1 (3)

forsenxd

TheMongolz

Invested

$7,852.03

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$9.0K

Record

53%

1117-978 (2095)

relativesignificanceCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$12,165.09

Value

$12.4K

PnL

+$271.59

Record

57%

154-114 (268)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$9,213.97

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

56%

8185-6496 (14681)

Both legs:

TheMongolz$4,525.542.4¢+$2.9K

Natus Vincere$4,688.4745.9¢$-1.6K

crmannetjeCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$14,437.88

Value

$10.4K

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

50%

27-27 (54)

DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$12,711.37

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$66.36

Record

53%

2195-1945 (4140)

Both legs:

TheMongolz$5,337.8550.3¢+$2.1K

Natus Vincere$4,731.9151.6¢$-2.1K

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$7,953.45

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

53%

6319-5602 (11921)

minjiARB<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$7,937.67

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

52%

1910-1754 (3664)

Both legs:

TheMongolz$4,754.3542.6¢+$2.0K

Natus Vincere$3,183.3243.9¢-$316.03

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$8,082.83

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

52%

14641-13306 (27947)

Both legs:

TheMongolz$3,972.0441.1¢+$2.8K

Natus Vincere$4,110.7951.2¢$-1.7K

Richidd

TheMongolz

Invested

$12,525.65

Value

$8.9K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

49%

59-62 (121)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$6,598.4

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$611.92

Record

57%

19418-14368 (33786)

Both legs:

TheMongolz$3,810.4146.9¢+$1.8K

Natus Vincere$2,787.9954.3¢$-1.2K

calculate10CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$15,416.47

Value

$6.2K

PnL

$-7.5K

Record

54%

1327-1144 (2471)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

TheMongolz

Invested

$6,035.96

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$148.43

Record

50%

570-572 (1142)

vibing123CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$8,864.1

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$61.67

Record

52%

1663-1556 (3219)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$5,502.18

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$183.58

Record

52%

8958-8128 (17086)

Both legs:

TheMongolz$2,500.944.6¢+$1.1K

Natus Vincere$3,001.2862.3¢$-1.2K

JokerTheClownCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$4,904.87

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$4.86

Record

51%

4162-4030 (8192)

Research grade

NeutralTheMongolz at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

TheMongolz

29 of 54 top traders (54%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that TheMongolz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.