Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold PARIVISION, while the market favors Natus Vincere (100%). 36 of 79 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs

36 of 79 top Polymarket traders hold PARIVISION (46%) · PARIVISION at 0.1¢ · $807K held · ends Nov 6

PARIVISION<1¢Natus Vincere>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

PARIVISION

Consensus Traders

PARIVISION 46%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$807.1K

Combined PnL

$5.4K

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 36 traders

Research grade

AvoidPARIVISION at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

36 of 79 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Natus Vincere 100%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed36 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION0%

Natus Vincere100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PARIVISION36 traders

Total Value$489.6K

Total Shares807,879

Combined PnL+$24.9K

Natus Vincere43 traders

Total Value$253.3K

Total Shares415,641

Combined PnL$-19.4K

PARIVISION — 46%Natus Vincere — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

52% of non-arb traders are on PARIVISION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Natus Vincere) and the top 1000 (42 on PARIVISION) disagree here.

whalePARIVISION 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpPARIVISION 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperNatus Vincere 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPARIVISION 55% · 40

Aligned

Hand-pickedNatus Vincere 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000PARIVISION 52% · 42

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR	PARIVISIONavg 53.9¢	$182.7K	$205.0K	+$22.3K	58% 23-17 (40)
NS NS13CTR	PARIVISIONavg 33¢	$159.2K	$124.6K	$-3.2K	52% 436-403 (839)
KJ kjhgkltivtvriur	Natus Vincereavg 71.4¢	$42.3K	$41.8K	-$419.51	— 4-1 (5)
CORGIIARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 64.3¢	$37.6K	$39.5K	+$1.9K	41% 414-596 (1010)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 64.3¢	$25.2K	$24.5K	-$692.32
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 31.1¢	$12.4K	$15.0K	+$2.6K
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	PARIVISIONavg 59.6¢	$38.9K	$36.7K	$-2.2K	54% 1366-1184 (2550)
drainedandpoorCTR	PARIVISIONavg 59.4¢	$29.7K	$30.2K	+$532.18	48% 660-710 (1370)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Natus Vincereavg 58.7¢	$26.1K	$27.0K	+$866	52% 14578-13266 (27844)
FA fantasy7788CTR	PARIVISIONavg 61.2¢	$25.5K	$25.2K	-$291.67	43% 97-128 (225)
forsenxd	Natus Vincereavg 58¢	$15.9K	$24.2K	+$10.5K	53% 1113-971 (2084)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	PARIVISIONavg 28.7¢	$11.0K	$23.2K	+$12.2K	55% 239-194 (433)
CA caishenbaoyoufadacai888ARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 59¢	$20.2K	$15.8K	$-4.5K	57% 692-528 (1220)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 63.7¢	$8.4K	$8.3K	-$155.93
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 59¢	$11.8K	$7.5K	$-4.3K
JA jakepaulthegoat2008	Natus Vincereavg 70¢	$25.7K	$14.5K	$-11.2K	50% 7654-7800 (15454)
LL lllllllIlll	Natus Vincereavg 73¢	$25.6K	$13.8K	$-11.7K	54% 318-272 (590)
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR	PARIVISIONavg 29.8¢	$11.9K	$11.0K	-$899.63	50% 1301-1292 (2593)
SU suleng66	Natus Vincereavg 72¢	$14.2K	$9.8K	$-4.4K	64% 210-120 (330)
LO lonmi2511	Natus Vincereavg 65.7¢	$10.9K	$9.5K	$-1.5K	55% 1395-1152 (2547)
PA papaebal	Natus Vincereavg 46.8¢	$7.0K	$9.4K	+$2.3K	48% 132-144 (276)
CR crmannetje	Natus Vincereavg 49.2¢	$13.1K	$9.0K	+$3.9K	54% 25-21 (46)
RE redvinny	Natus Vincereavg 81.1¢	$24.2K	$8.9K	-$352.39	75% 1617-533 (2150)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinha	Natus Vincereavg 70¢	$15.6K	$8.8K	$-6.8K	51% 89-84 (173)
0xheavy888	Natus Vincereavg 68.8¢	$14.7K	$7.6K	$-2.9K	56% 8090-6420 (14510)
minji	Natus Vincereavg 72.8¢	$13.2K	$7.1K	$-2.2K	52% 1907-1747 (3654)
KK Kkunn	Natus Vincereavg 39.1¢	$8.4K	$6.8K	+$5.1K	42% 245-336 (581)
DamwonChampions2026CTR	PARIVISIONavg 54¢	$9.3K	$6.5K	-$625.1	53% 2194-1936 (4130)
SC Scrip-scrip	Natus Vincereavg 63¢	$6.3K	$6.3K	+$50	50% 10-10 (20)

Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$182,693.65

Value

$205.0K

PnL

+$22.3K

Record

58%

23-17 (40)

NS13CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$159,247.38

Value

$124.6K

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

52%

436-403 (839)

kjhgkltivtvriur

Natus Vincere

Invested

$42,257.29

Value

$41.8K

PnL

-$419.51

Record

—

4-1 (5)

CORGIIARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$37,591.26

Value

$39.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

41%

414-596 (1010)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$25,171.2664.3¢-$692.32

PARIVISION$12,42031.1¢+$2.6K

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$38,930.45

Value

$36.7K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

54%

1366-1184 (2550)

drainedandpoorCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$29,688.14

Value

$30.2K

PnL

+$532.18

Record

48%

660-710 (1370)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Natus Vincere

Invested

$26,096.03

Value

$27.0K

PnL

+$866

Record

52%

14578-13266 (27844)

fantasy7788CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$25,500

Value

$25.2K

PnL

-$291.67

Record

43%

97-128 (225)

forsenxd

Natus Vincere

Invested

$15,881.65

Value

$24.2K

PnL

+$10.5K

Record

53%

1113-971 (2084)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$11,045.95

Value

$23.2K

PnL

+$12.2K

Record

55%

239-194 (433)

caishenbaoyoufadacai888ARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$20,206.06

Value

$15.8K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

57%

692-528 (1220)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$8,406.0663.7¢-$155.93

PARIVISION$11,80059¢$-4.3K

jakepaulthegoat2008

Natus Vincere

Invested

$25,675.2

Value

$14.5K

PnL

$-11.2K

Record

50%

7654-7800 (15454)

lllllllIlll

Natus Vincere

Invested

$25,565.91

Value

$13.8K

PnL

$-11.7K

Record

54%

318-272 (590)

GooooooollllllllllCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$11,879.47

Value

$11.0K

PnL

-$899.63

Record

50%

1301-1292 (2593)

suleng66

Natus Vincere

Invested

$14,203

Value

$9.8K

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

64%

210-120 (330)

lonmi2511

Natus Vincere

Invested

$10,930.63

Value

$9.5K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

55%

1395-1152 (2547)

papaebal

Natus Vincere

Invested

$7,006.94

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

48%

132-144 (276)

crmannetje

Natus Vincere

Invested

$13,106.04

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

54%

25-21 (46)

redvinny

Natus Vincere

Invested

$24,223.62

Value

$8.9K

PnL

-$352.39

Record

75%

1617-533 (2150)

AnibalAugustoSardinha

Natus Vincere

Invested

$15,555.39

Value

$8.8K

PnL

$-6.8K

Record

51%

89-84 (173)

0xheavy888

Natus Vincere

Invested

$14,672.79

Value

$7.6K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

56%

8090-6420 (14510)

minji

Natus Vincere

Invested

$13,237.72

Value

$7.1K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

52%

1907-1747 (3654)

Kkunn

Natus Vincere

Invested

$8,436.62

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

42%

245-336 (581)

DamwonChampions2026CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$9,259.12

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$625.1

Record

53%

2194-1936 (4130)

Scrip-scrip

Natus Vincere

Invested

$6,300

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$50

Record

50%

10-10 (20)

Research grade

AvoidPARIVISION at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

36 of 79 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Natus Vincere 100%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed36 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

52% of non-arb traders are on PARIVISION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Natus Vincere) and the top 1000 (42 on PARIVISION) disagree here.

whalePARIVISION 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpPARIVISION 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperNatus Vincere 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPARIVISION 55% · 40

Aligned

Hand-pickedNatus Vincere 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000PARIVISION 52% · 42

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PARIVISION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.