Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner
25 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (81%) · Vitality at 100¢ · $150K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Vitality
31
Vitality 81%
2 arb excluded
$150.5K
$4.3K
68.8¢ → 100¢
+45% since entry · 25 traders
Research grade
NeutralVitality at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- $100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
25 of 31 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Vitalityavg 68.8¢ | $51.3K | $55.2K | +$3.9K | 63% 45-26 (71) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Vitalityavg 72.9¢ | $13.9K | $13.6K | -$11.6 | 56% 3827-2993 (6820) |
FK fkALG2FalconsTES | Vitalityavg 72.5¢ | $9.5K | $10.8K | +$3.0K | 46% 890-1056 (1946) |
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | Vitalityavg 53.3¢ | $4.8K | $9.0K | +$4.2K | 51% 3682-3522 (7204) |
CA calculate10 | Vitalityavg 59.1¢ | $7.8K | $6.7K | +$2.7K | 22% 24-86 (110) |
31 319113331313111 | Vitalityavg 71.4¢ | $4.7K | $5.0K | +$304.42 | 47% 52-59 (111) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Vitalityavg 67.9¢ | $4.1K | $4.7K | +$506.62 | 54% 1691-1468 (3159) |
 handandfacetatto | Vitalityavg 98.3¢ | $4.5K | $4.6K | +$74.16 | 100% 53-0 (53) |
GT gt7238 | Vitalityavg 70¢ | $4.6K | $4.3K | +$173.98 | 3% 13-447 (460) |
 vtcchampion52CTR | Team Falconsavg 28.1¢ | $5.6K | $4.3K | $-1.3K | 48% 844-900 (1744) |
 minji | Vitalityavg 62.6¢ | $2.7K | $4.2K | +$1.6K | — 2-2 (4) |
FE fengdubisheng117CTR | Team Falconsavg 27¢ | $2.2K | $3.7K | +$1.5K | 0% 0-47 (47) |
JO JokerTheClown | Vitalityavg 70¢ | $2.1K | $3.0K | +$898.5 | 0% 0-188 (188) |
TA takeormakeARB<$100 | Vitalityavg 64.5¢ | $3.0K | $2.8K | -$124.4 | 58% 3133-2226 (5359) |
| └ Vitality leg | Vitalityavg 64.5¢ | $1.6K | $2.0K | +$483.52 | |
| └ Team Falcons leg | Team Falconsavg 27.2¢ | $1.4K | $807.06 | -$607.92 | |
FR frohp5 | Vitalityavg 67.4¢ | $3.3K | $2.5K | +$1.2K | 60% 1220-803 (2023) |
 0xheavy888 | Vitalityavg 72.1¢ | $1.7K | $2.3K | +$651.39 | 57% 145-111 (256) |
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314 | Vitalityavg 83.9¢ | $1.8K | $2.1K | +$336.74 | 9% 12-122 (134) |
PA pauleta23 | Vitalityavg 69.6¢ | $2.2K | $2.0K | -$32.6 | 26% 162-456 (618) |
BI BillBenter2026 | Vitalityavg 66.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.8K | +$318.67 | 19% 115-478 (593) |
10 10scat | Vitalityavg 68.9¢ | $2.0K | $1.4K | +$633.97 | 2% 12-513 (525) |
 GaoJin-GamblingGod | Vitalityavg 65¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$116.13 | 1% 4-288 (292) |
 DamwonChampions2026 | Vitalityavg 62.7¢ | $714.02 | $1.1K | +$423.85 | — 2-1 (3) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Vitalityavg 63¢ | $630 | $999.5 | +$369.5 | 12% 105-801 (906) |
WH white-rabbitCTR | Team Falconsavg 39.1¢ | $2.9K | $827.48 | $-1.9K | 2% 1-65 (66) |
PA panpidaras1 | Vitalityavg 47.7¢ | $376.18 | $788.6 | +$412.42 | 5% 14-261 (275) |
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$51,322.06
Value
$55.2K
PnL
+$3.9K
Record
63%
45-26 (71)
Invested
$13,897.44
Value
$13.6K
PnL
-$11.6
Record
56%
3827-2993 (6820)
Invested
$9,468.39
Value
$10.8K
PnL
+$3.0K
Record
46%
890-1056 (1946)
Invested
$4,827.1
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$4.2K
Record
51%
3682-3522 (7204)
Invested
$7,818.54
Value
$6.7K
PnL
+$2.7K
Record
22%
24-86 (110)
Invested
$4,715.13
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$304.42
Record
47%
52-59 (111)
Invested
$4,147.96
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$506.62
Record
54%
1691-1468 (3159)
handandfacetattoInvested
$4,489.56
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$74.16
Record
100%
53-0 (53)
Invested
$4,621.05
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$173.98
Record
3%
13-447 (460)
vtcchampion52CTRInvested
$5,566.59
Value
$4.3K
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
48%
844-900 (1744)
minjiInvested
$2,660.81
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
—
2-2 (4)
Invested
$2,246.41
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
0%
0-47 (47)
Invested
$2,099.99
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$898.5
Record
0%
0-188 (188)
Invested
$2,969.88
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$124.4
Record
58%
3133-2226 (5359)
Both legs:
Invested
$3,322
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
60%
1220-803 (2023)
0xheavy888Invested
$1,688.14
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$651.39
Record
57%
145-111 (256)
Invested
$1,763.23
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$336.74
Record
9%
12-122 (134)
Invested
$2,172.09
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$32.6
Record
26%
162-456 (618)
Invested
$1,463.41
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$318.67
Record
19%
115-478 (593)
Invested
$1,993.2
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$633.97
Record
2%
12-513 (525)
GaoJin-GamblingGodInvested
$1,161.29
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$116.13
Record
1%
4-288 (292)
DamwonChampions2026Invested
$714.02
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$423.85
Record
—
2-1 (3)
Invested
$630
Value
$999.5
PnL
+$369.5
Record
12%
105-801 (906)
Invested
$2,918.46
Value
$827.48
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
2%
1-65 (66)
Invested
$376.18
Value
$788.6
PnL
+$412.42
Record
5%
14-261 (275)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f
Vitality — $55.2K
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Vitality — $13.6K
fkALG2FalconsTES
Vitality — $10.8K
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465
Vitality — $9.0K
calculate10
Vitality — $6.7K
319113331313111
Vitality — $5.0K
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Vitality — $4.7K
handandfacetatto
Vitality — $4.6K
gt7238
Vitality — $4.3K
vtcchampion52
CTRTeam Falcons — $4.3K