Dota 2: potn9ki vs HellNight- (BO3) - Esports Pro Circuit Group C

13 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold potn9ki (57%) · potn9ki at 60¢ · $64K held · ends Nov 2

potn9ki60¢HellNight-40¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

potn9ki

Consensus Traders

potn9ki 57%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$64.1K

Combined PnL

$22.3K

Smart Money Entry

32.7¢ → 59.7¢

+83% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

Neutralpotn9ki at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

potn9ki

13 of 23 top traders (57%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

potn9ki60%

HellNight-40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

potn9ki13 traders

Total Value$39.3K

Total Shares67,287

Combined PnL+$24.8K

HellNight-10 traders

Total Value$16.0K

Total Shares20,365

Combined PnL$-2.5K

potn9ki — 57%HellNight- — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121	potn9kiavg 21.1¢	$11.4K	$24.0K	+$21.2K	82% 71-16 (87)
PN pnhctCTR	HellNight-avg 59.1¢	$7.8K	$7.5K	-$350.59	53% 541-474 (1015)
lma0o0o0o	potn9kiavg 53.9¢	$5.6K	$6.2K	+$593.23	51% 1076-1050 (2126)
SL SlickRick123ARB<$100	HellNight-avg 72.2¢	$4.4K	$3.5K	-$823.5	46% 4536-5349 (9885)
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 55.1¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$284.41
└ HellNight- leg	HellNight-avg 72.2¢	$2.3K	$1.2K	$-1.1K
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540	potn9kiavg 46.8¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$7.79	53% 105-95 (200)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	HellNight-avg 74.4¢	$4.3K	$2.8K	$-1.5K	49% 813-861 (1674)
BU Bunnycat	potn9kiavg 45.6¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	+$1.2K	66% 95-48 (143)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	HellNight-avg 91.7¢	$3.7K	$2.3K	$-1.4K	56% 18412-14726 (33138)
└ HellNight- leg	HellNight-avg 91.7¢	$2.9K	$1.3K	$-1.6K
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 51¢	$840.75	$957.07	+$116.32
poshposhCTR	HellNight-avg 70.1¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$70.9	58% 11444-8293 (19737)
NO NotJumpCTR	HellNight-avg 97.3¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$151.53	44% 9908-12854 (22762)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	potn9kiavg 60¢	$3.0K	$1.7K	+$35.95	75% 107-36 (143)
SU suntoriARB<$100	HellNight-avg 73.2¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$126.13	45% 12952-15719 (28671)
└ HellNight- leg	HellNight-avg 73.2¢	$1.7K	$962.48	-$504.02
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 2.1¢	$21.93	$624.92	+$630.15
SI Sisyphus-CTR	HellNight-avg 61.7¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$405.86	57% 729-556 (1285)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	potn9kiavg 24¢	$582.3	$921.56	+$339.25	47% 10061-11179 (21240)
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 24¢	$372.02	$503.42	+$131.4
└ HellNight- leg	HellNight-avg 33.9¢	$210.28	$418.14	+$207.85
AR arbmonitor	potn9kiavg 29.1¢	$499.59	$894.04	+$394.45	44% 570-739 (1309)
alpheclabs2	potn9kiavg 51.1¢	$730.52	$743.09	+$12.57	49% 96-100 (196)
LR lryyyARB<$100	HellNight-avg 59.7¢	$613.3	$535.13	-$78.17	46% 7939-9260 (17199)
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 51.4¢	$246.53	$280.32	+$33.79
└ HellNight- leg	HellNight-avg 59.7¢	$366.77	$254.81	-$111.96
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69	potn9kiavg 55.1¢	$507.41	$369.97	+$2.44	50% 1279-1293 (2572)
MA MarquisDeMottCTR	HellNight-avg 94.3¢	$392.51	$342.02	-$50.49	98% 3391-83 (3474)
PA pauleta23CTR	HellNight-avg 66.4¢	$331.99	$232.46	-$99.53	66% 23644-11935 (35579)
OJ ojgtubvdt	potn9kiavg 60.9¢	$132	$112.67	-$19.33	62% 651-396 (1047)
GG GGLPL<$100	potn9kiavg 49.2¢	$65.92	$56.06	+$10.26	50% 713-717 (1430)
MR MrConsistency	potn9kiavg 21.2¢	$761.08	$25.94	+$1.3K	39% 573-880 (1453)
RO Rock.SanCTR<$100	HellNight-avg 80¢	$24	$24.65	+$0.64	90% 12120-1416 (13536)
JO JocJoCTR<$100	HellNight-avg 69¢	$12.96	$9.02	-$3.94	52% 968-910 (1878)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121

potn9ki

Invested

$11,398.05

Value

$24.0K

PnL

+$21.2K

Record

82%

71-16 (87)

pnhctCTR

HellNight-

Invested

$7,846.19

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$350.59

Record

53%

541-474 (1015)

lma0o0o0o

potn9ki

Invested

$5,608.49

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$593.23

Record

51%

1076-1050 (2126)

SlickRick123ARB<$100

HellNight-

Invested

$4,352.05

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$823.5

Record

46%

4536-5349 (9885)

Both legs:

potn9ki$2,060.7955.1¢+$284.41

HellNight-$2,291.2772.2¢$-1.1K

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540

potn9ki

Invested

$2,854.78

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$7.79

Record

53%

105-95 (200)

RandomVibecoderCTR

HellNight-

Invested

$4,281.29

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

49%

813-861 (1674)

Bunnycat

potn9ki

Invested

$2,566.33

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

66%

95-48 (143)

cigarettesARB<$100

HellNight-

Invested

$3,727.95

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

56%

18412-14726 (33138)

Both legs:

HellNight-$2,887.291.7¢$-1.6K

potn9ki$840.7551¢+$116.32

poshposhCTR

HellNight-

Invested

$1,903.21

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$70.9

Record

58%

11444-8293 (19737)

NotJumpCTR

HellNight-

Invested

$1,858.87

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$151.53

Record

44%

9908-12854 (22762)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

potn9ki

Invested

$3,000

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$35.95

Record

75%

107-36 (143)

suntoriARB<$100

HellNight-

Invested

$1,489.42

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$126.13

Record

45%

12952-15719 (28671)

Both legs:

HellNight-$1,698.4373.2¢-$504.02

potn9ki$21.932.1¢+$630.15

Sisyphus-CTR

HellNight-

Invested

$1,825.6

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$405.86

Record

57%

729-556 (1285)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$582.3

Value

$921.56

PnL

+$339.25

Record

47%

10061-11179 (21240)

Both legs:

potn9ki$372.0224¢+$131.4

HellNight-$210.2833.9¢+$207.85

arbmonitor

potn9ki

Invested

$499.59

Value

$894.04

PnL

+$394.45

Record

44%

570-739 (1309)

alpheclabs2

potn9ki

Invested

$730.52

Value

$743.09

PnL

+$12.57

Record

49%

96-100 (196)

lryyyARB<$100

HellNight-

Invested

$613.3

Value

$535.13

PnL

-$78.17

Record

46%

7939-9260 (17199)

Both legs:

potn9ki$246.5351.4¢+$33.79

HellNight-$366.7759.7¢-$111.96

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69

potn9ki

Invested

$507.41

Value

$369.97

PnL

+$2.44

Record

50%

1279-1293 (2572)

MarquisDeMottCTR

HellNight-

Invested

$392.51

Value

$342.02

PnL

-$50.49

Record

98%

3391-83 (3474)

pauleta23CTR

HellNight-

Invested

$331.99

Value

$232.46

PnL

-$99.53

Record

66%

23644-11935 (35579)

ojgtubvdt

potn9ki

Invested

$132

Value

$112.67

PnL

-$19.33

Record

62%

651-396 (1047)

GGLPL<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$65.92

Value

$56.06

PnL

+$10.26

Record

50%

713-717 (1430)

MrConsistency

potn9ki

Invested

$761.08

Value

$25.94

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

39%

573-880 (1453)

Rock.SanCTR<$100

HellNight-

Invested

$24

Value

$24.65

PnL

+$0.64

Record

90%

12120-1416 (13536)

JocJoCTR<$100

HellNight-

Invested

$12.96

Value

$9.02

PnL

-$3.94

Record

52%

968-910 (1878)

Research grade

Neutralpotn9ki at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

potn9ki

13 of 23 top traders (57%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that potn9ki wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.8%

59.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$61.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

161.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.