Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2027?

37 of 55 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 86¢ · $200K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes86¢No14¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$199.6K

Combined PnL

$-3.4K

Smart Money Entry

81.2¢ → 85.5¢

+5% since entry · 37 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

37 of 55 top traders (67%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes37 traders

Total Value$190.6K

Total Shares220,255

Combined PnL+$12.0K

No18 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares69,690

Combined PnL$-15.4K

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

32 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYes 75% · 12

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 62% · 47

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKen	Yesavg 91.5¢	$44.6K	$41.6K	$-2.9K	0% 0-289 (289)
0X 0x2a5ffc44aeb0aa4d1cdf41df7e6be60ed4476c92	Yesavg 87.7¢	$38.1K	$37.2K	-$920.81	—
BA bands1	Yesavg 63.5¢	$18.9K	$26.2K	+$7.3K	51% 339-332 (671)
pIebe	Yesavg 87.4¢	$17.8K	$17.4K	-$381.34	— 3-4 (7)
JJo	Yesavg 86¢	$8.6K	$8.5K	-$50	— 4-8 (12)
SB sbimbg	Yesavg 48.3¢	$3.9K	$7.2K	+$3.2K	— 5-2 (7)
XAE12Archangel	Yesavg 92¢	$6.4K	$6.2K	-$280	51% 258-246 (504)
aenews2	Yesavg 93¢	$5.0K	$4.7K	-$267.14	0% 0-127 (127)
88 881112	Yesavg 87¢	$5.1K	$4.4K	-$84	0% 0-417 (417)
GD Gdub	Yesavg 90.3¢	$7.8K	$4.4K	-$73	— 0-5 (5)
StupidMonkeyyy	Yesavg 53.9¢	$2.5K	$3.7K	+$1.4K	— 5-4 (9)
Michael-The-Taxiarch	Yesavg 65.7¢	$5.0K	$3.5K	+$505.14	—
SE SeniorLaghetto	Yesavg 89.6¢	$4.3K	$3.5K	-$52.09	— 1-18 (19)
Contentious-Dinnerdate	Yesavg 42¢	$1.5K	$2.6K	+$1.6K	— 3-1 (4)
25 254321758CTR	Noavg 59.4¢	$11.2K	$2.5K	$-8.8K	68% 502-236 (738)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Yesavg 49.8¢	$1.5K	$2.3K	+$1.1K	41% 13-19 (32)
E4 e46m3	Yesavg 83.2¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$53.64	43% 2572-3394 (5966)
debased	Yesavg 93¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$102.44	55% 964-799 (1763)
FU Fulgurator	Yesavg 91¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$60	— 2-9 (11)
Kettle	Yesavg 93.8¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$112.82	— 0-13 (13)
SteveTheFishCTR	Noavg 27.8¢	$3.3K	$1.5K	$-1.7K	—
classified	Yesavg 91¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$43.5	66% 620-318 (938)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 54.9¢	$874.99	$1.2K	+$441.84	40% 3217-4824 (8041)
CarCTR	Noavg 20.7¢	$5.7K	$1.2K	$-2.1K	69% 1400-643 (2043)
HoshinoAI	Yesavg 87.4¢	$3.8K	$1.1K	+$30.34	42% 13-18 (31)

ImJustKen

Yes

Invested

$44,555.78

Value

$41.6K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

0-289 (289)

0x2a5ffc44aeb0aa4d1cdf41df7e6be60ed4476c92

Yes

Invested

$38,072.12

Value

$37.2K

PnL

-$920.81

Record

—

bands1

Yes

Invested

$18,947.94

Value

$26.2K

PnL

+$7.3K

Record

51%

339-332 (671)

pIebe

Yes

Invested

$17,753.96

Value

$17.4K

PnL

-$381.34

Record

—

3-4 (7)

JJo

Yes

Invested

$8,599.99

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$50

Record

—

4-8 (12)

sbimbg

Yes

Invested

$3,935.16

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

—

5-2 (7)

XAE12Archangel

Yes

Invested

$6,440

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$280

Record

51%

258-246 (504)

aenews2

Yes

Invested

$4,968.81

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$267.14

Record

0-127 (127)

881112

Yes

Invested

$5,129.96

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$84

Record

0-417 (417)

Gdub

Yes

Invested

$7,767

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$73

Record

—

0-5 (5)

StupidMonkeyyy

Yes

Invested

$2,461.98

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

—

5-4 (9)

Michael-The-Taxiarch

Yes

Invested

$4,994.06

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$505.14

Record

—

SeniorLaghetto

Yes

Invested

$4,291.32

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$52.09

Record

—

1-18 (19)

Contentious-Dinnerdate

Yes

Invested

$1,470

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

—

3-1 (4)

254321758CTR

Invested

$11,236.59

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-8.8K

Record

68%

502-236 (738)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Yes

Invested

$1,483.16

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

41%

13-19 (32)

e46m3

Yes

Invested

$1,900.71

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$53.64

Record

43%

2572-3394 (5966)

debased

Yes

Invested

$1,905.44

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$102.44

Record

55%

964-799 (1763)

Fulgurator

Yes

Invested

$1,820

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$60

Record

—

2-9 (11)

Kettle

Yes

Invested

$1,833.43

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$112.82

Record

—

0-13 (13)

SteveTheFishCTR

Invested

$3,252.38

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

—

classified

Yes

Invested

$1,319.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$43.5

Record

66%

620-318 (938)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$874.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$441.84

Record

40%

3217-4824 (8041)

CarCTR

Invested

$5,671.63

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

69%

1400-643 (2043)

HoshinoAI

Yes

Invested

$3,843.12

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$30.34

Record

42%

13-18 (31)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

37 of 55 top traders (67%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

32 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYes 75% · 12

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 62% · 47

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.