Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?

36 of 56 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 64¢ · $191K held · ends Nov 14

Yes64¢No36¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$190.9K

Combined PnL

-$103.98

Smart Money Entry

62.6¢ → 63.5¢

+1% since entry · 36 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 64%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

36 of 56 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes36 traders

Total Value$163.2K

Total Shares254,019

Combined PnL+$3.7K

No20 traders

Total Value$27.5K

Total Shares79,750

Combined PnL$-3.9K

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

33 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sniperYes 67% · 9

Aligned

ctrYes 54% · 26

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 52

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Yesavg 66.2¢	$49.8K	$47.8K	$-2.1K	46% 459-547 (1006)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Yesavg 60.7¢	$14.3K	$15.3K	+$1.0K	1% 4-584 (588)
eightpenguins	Yesavg 44.7¢	$8.0K	$11.7K	+$3.6K	—
CH chunqiuCTR	Noavg 32.2¢	$9.7K	$10.2K	+$528.18	— 0-1 (1)
ImJustKen	Yesavg 65¢	$9.7K	$9.5K	-$225	0% 0-289 (289)
ME Melody626	Yesavg 68.4¢	$16.6K	$7.9K	$-1.2K	57% 467-359 (826)
PI pieped	Yesavg 50.8¢	$6.1K	$7.6K	+$1.5K	0% 0-45 (45)
AL AlphaBetaGamma2357	Yesavg 69.3¢	$6.7K	$6.3K	-$416.91	— 2-6 (8)
JO JokerTheClown	Yesavg 51.7¢	$5.0K	$6.2K	+$1.3K	2% 4-193 (197)
ET ethBELIVER	Yesavg 63¢	$5.7K	$5.9K	+$182.15	— 1-0 (1)
paddaa	Yesavg 70.7¢	$17.1K	$5.7K	-$565.43	60% 497-335 (832)
HE hell0piaCTR	Noavg 54.5¢	$8.3K	$5.2K	$-3.1K	— 4-0 (4)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Yesavg 63.7¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	-$12.5	81% 364-88 (452)
CI cigarettes	Yesavg 62¢	$4.3K	$4.0K	+$412.15	53% 5995-5369 (11364)
aenews2	Yesavg 63¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$113.8	0% 0-127 (127)
DE deltasniper	Yesavg 62.8¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$35	—
CO cocococococo	Yesavg 63¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$79.41	13% 5-35 (40)
88 881112CTR	Noavg 36.3¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	+$11.55	0% 0-417 (417)
Car	Yesavg 64.7¢	$6.9K	$2.2K	+$32.22	69% 1400-643 (2043)
Optimus-	Yesavg 50.6¢	$2.7K	$2.2K	+$685.33	— 0-6 (6)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 68.2¢	$7.5K	$2.0K	+$222.69	45% 133-163 (296)
Michael-The-Taxiarch	Yesavg 65.7¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$21.15	—
PL plustiCTR	Noavg 57¢	$3.3K	$2.0K	$-1.3K	28% 19-49 (68)
0X 0x77266604E63f5cAF08D19CaEBae0C563ce064aE	Yesavg 75¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$248.37	— 1-1 (2)
JJo	Yesavg 63¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$40	— 4-8 (12)

anoin123

Yes

Invested

$49,838.47

Value

$47.8K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

46%

459-547 (1006)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Yes

Invested

$14,321.67

Value

$15.3K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

4-584 (588)

eightpenguins

Yes

Invested

$8,029.07

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

—

chunqiuCTR

Invested

$9,671.7

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$528.18

Record

—

0-1 (1)

ImJustKen

Yes

Invested

$9,749.95

Value

$9.5K

PnL

-$225

Record

0-289 (289)

Melody626

Yes

Invested

$16,617.41

Value

$7.9K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

57%

467-359 (826)

pieped

Yes

Invested

$6,070.72

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

0-45 (45)

AlphaBetaGamma2357

Yes

Invested

$6,685.51

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$416.91

Record

—

2-6 (8)

JokerTheClown

Yes

Invested

$4,968.65

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

4-193 (197)

ethBELIVER

Yes

Invested

$5,737.57

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$182.15

Record

—

1-0 (1)

paddaa

Yes

Invested

$17,117.95

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$565.43

Record

60%

497-335 (832)

hell0piaCTR

Invested

$8,304.4

Value

$5.2K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

—

4-0 (4)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Yes

Invested

$4,774.99

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$12.5

Record

81%

364-88 (452)

cigarettes

Yes

Invested

$4,331.46

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$412.15

Record

53%

5995-5369 (11364)

aenews2

Yes

Invested

$3,584.71

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$113.8

Record

0-127 (127)

deltasniper

Yes

Invested

$3,140

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$35

Record

—

cocococococo

Yes

Invested

$2,483.35

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$79.41

Record

13%

5-35 (40)

881112CTR

Invested

$2,614.73

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$11.55

Record

0-417 (417)

Car

Yes

Invested

$6,906.35

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$32.22

Record

69%

1400-643 (2043)

Optimus-

Yes

Invested

$2,721.65

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$685.33

Record

—

0-6 (6)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$7,530.06

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$222.69

Record

45%

133-163 (296)

Michael-The-Taxiarch

Yes

Invested

$2,006.9

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$21.15

Record

—

plustiCTR

Invested

$3,306

Value

$2.0K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

28%

19-49 (68)

0x77266604E63f5cAF08D19CaEBae0C563ce064aE

Yes

Invested

$1,862.81

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$248.37

Record

—

1-1 (2)

JJo

Yes

Invested

$1,260

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$40

Record

—

4-8 (12)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 64%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

36 of 56 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

33 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sniperYes 67% · 9

Aligned

ctrYes 54% · 26

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 52

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.