Wizards vs. Pacers

17 of 34 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (50%) · Pacers at 53¢ · $281K held · ended Nov 12

Wizards48¢Pacers52¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 50%

15 arb excluded

Total Value

$281.1K

Combined PnL

$4.5K

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 52.5¢

-11% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

17 of 34 top traders (50%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wizards48%

Pacers53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers17 traders

Total Value$194.8K

Total Shares330,527

Combined PnL+$655.71

Wizards17 traders

Total Value$63.2K

Total Shares141,965

Combined PnL+$3.9K

Pacers — 50%Wizards — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-28 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

39% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Pacers) and the top 1000 (22 on Wizards) disagree here.

whalePacers 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpPacers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWizards 69% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedPacers 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Wizards 59% · 22

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18	Pacersavg 59¢	$165.2K	$166.6K	+$1.4K	51% 720-699 (1419)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Wizardsavg 40.7¢	$15.0K	$14.9K	-$50.63	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Wizardsavg 41.2¢	$9.1K	$10.8K	+$1.8K	48% 536-588 (1124)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Wizardsavg 41¢	$8.3K	$10.0K	+$1.6K	53% 1841-1653 (3494)
SI Siddhartha1	Pacersavg 59¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	+$2.25	60% 94-62 (156)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Pacersavg 54.1¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	-$38.01	45% 182-223 (405)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 54.1¢	$3.1K	$2.8K	-$204.75
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 46.1¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$166.74
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Wizardsavg 41¢	$5.4K	$5.3K	-$131.34	52% 14-13 (27)
VeryLucky888CTR	Wizardsavg 41¢	$8.1K	$4.9K	+$31.02	52% 490-447 (937)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Pacersavg 57.4¢	$4.9K	$4.3K	-$579.81	51% 3720-3550 (7270)
drainedandpoor	Pacersavg 57¢	$4.0K	$4.2K	+$141.93	47% 414-462 (876)
HI hi774cCTR	Wizardsavg 41¢	$4.1K	$4.0K	-$100	14% 77-472 (549)
0X 0xfFFF6537ARB<$100	Pacersavg 59¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$180.52	25% 22-66 (88)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 59¢	$2.6K	$2.3K	-$379.27
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 43.4¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$198.75
BR BreakTheBank	Pacersavg 59¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$27.37	42% 583-818 (1401)
WH whosayCTR	Wizardsavg 45¢	$2.7K	$3.0K	+$270	71% 20-8 (28)
RN1	Pacersavg 57.2¢	$3.0K	$2.6K	-$352.05	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Wizardsavg 41¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$322.43	54% 521-440 (961)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Pacersavg 61¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$155.57	56% 3871-3031 (6902)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 61¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$234.95
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 45.9¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$79.39
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Wizardsavg 42¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$95.2	1% 5-496 (501)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Wizardsavg 42.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$11.94	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 52.9¢	$831.81	$1.0K	+$182.83
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 42.5¢	$1.0K	$863.58	-$170.88
HE henryttokARB<$100	Pacersavg 59¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$18.17	67% 14-7 (21)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 59¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$9.09
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 40¢	$726.93	$754.19	+$27.26
AS asuka7	Pacersavg 57¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$60	3% 9-313 (322)
DA darkumbreon88ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 41¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$13.6	61% 928-594 (1522)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 41¢	$867.98	$867.98	+$0
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 58¢	$788.68	$802.27	+$13.6
GC GC-PARB<$100	Wizardsavg 40.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$22.64	21% 99-382 (481)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 40.8¢	$905.91	$899.8	-$6.11
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 57.2¢	$715	$743.75	+$28.75
PU purplegattoCTR	Wizardsavg 42¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$76.2	69% 2587-1181 (3768)
BI biying88888	Pacersavg 55¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$134.19	37% 119-202 (321)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18

Pacers

Invested

$165,199.96

Value

$166.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

51%

720-699 (1419)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Wizards

Invested

$14,959.75

Value

$14.9K

PnL

-$50.63

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Wizards

Invested

$9,073.2

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Wizards

Invested

$8,337

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

53%

1841-1653 (3494)

Siddhartha1

Pacers

Invested

$5,931.65

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$2.25

Record

60%

94-62 (156)

Anon455ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$5,331.65

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$38.01

Record

45%

182-223 (405)

Both legs:

Pacers$3,054.0154.1¢-$204.75

Wizards$2,277.6446.1¢+$166.74

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Wizards

Invested

$5,384.94

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$131.34

Record

52%

14-13 (27)

VeryLucky888CTR

Wizards

Invested

$8,079.36

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$31.02

Record

52%

490-447 (937)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Pacers

Invested

$4,852.62

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$579.81

Record

51%

3720-3550 (7270)

drainedandpoor

Pacers

Invested

$4,045.05

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$141.93

Record

47%

414-462 (876)

hi774cCTR

Wizards

Invested

$4,100

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$100

Record

14%

77-472 (549)

0xfFFF6537ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$4,037.17

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$180.52

Record

25%

22-66 (88)

Both legs:

Pacers$2,632.5859¢-$379.27

Wizards$1,404.5943.4¢+$198.75

BreakTheBank

Pacers

Invested

$3,229.94

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$27.37

Record

42%

583-818 (1401)

whosayCTR

Wizards

Invested

$2,700

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$270

Record

71%

20-8 (28)

RN1

Pacers

Invested

$3,001.44

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$352.05

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Wizards

Invested

$2,033.87

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$322.43

Record

54%

521-440 (961)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2,388.79

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$155.57

Record

56%

3871-3031 (6902)

Both legs:

Pacers$1,361.3861¢-$234.95

Wizards$1,027.4145.9¢+$79.39

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Wizards

Invested

$1,999.2

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$95.2

Record

5-496 (501)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$1,866.27

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$11.94

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

Both legs:

Pacers$831.8152.9¢+$182.83

Wizards$1,034.4642.5¢-$170.88

henryttokARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$1,799.17

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$18.17

Record

67%

14-7 (21)

Both legs:

Pacers$1,072.2359¢-$9.09

Wizards$726.9340¢+$27.26

asuka7

Pacers

Invested

$1,710

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$60

Record

9-313 (322)

darkumbreon88ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$1,656.65

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$13.6

Record

61%

928-594 (1522)

Both legs:

Wizards$867.9841¢+$0

Pacers$788.6858¢+$13.6

GC-PARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$1,620.91

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$22.64

Record

21%

99-382 (481)

Both legs:

Wizards$905.9140.8¢-$6.11

Pacers$71557.2¢+$28.75

purplegattoCTR

Wizards

Invested

$1,600.2

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$76.2

Record

69%

2587-1181 (3768)

biying88888

Pacers

Invested

$1,640.1

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$134.19

Record

37%

119-202 (321)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

17 of 34 top traders (50%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-28 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

39% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Pacers) and the top 1000 (22 on Wizards) disagree here.

whalePacers 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpPacers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWizards 69% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedPacers 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Wizards 59% · 22

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.