Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw?

12 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 97¢ · $119K held · ends Nov 7

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$119.0K

Combined PnL

$34.2K

Smart Money Entry

36.4¢ → 97¢

+167% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 27 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$110.1K

Total Shares115,766

Combined PnL+$68.0K

No15 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares61,072

Combined PnL$-33.9K

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 54% · 24

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
shineforever	Yesavg 35¢	$16.4K	$45.0K	+$28.8K	58% 83-61 (144)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 42¢	$8.7K	$19.4K	+$10.7K	83% 81-17 (98)
bot-rapin	Yesavg 34.2¢	$5.4K	$14.7K	+$9.3K	— 4-0 (4)
morito181	Yesavg 37¢	$4.5K	$11.6K	+$6.9K	61% 860-552 (1412)
JA JabJabich	Yesavg 20.7¢	$1.5K	$6.9K	+$5.3K	63% 179-107 (286)
BT btna	Yesavg 63.3¢	$3.4K	$5.1K	+$1.6K	71% 42-17 (59)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 67.6¢	$31.6K	$4.1K	$-27.5K	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
└ No leg	Noavg 67.6¢	$31.2K	$3.2K	$-28.0K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38¢	$379	$957.47	+$578.47
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 17.5¢	$736.68	$4.0K	+$3.3K	75% 110-36 (146)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Noavg 60.1¢	$31.2K	$3.6K	$-29.3K	50% 525-521 (1046)
HR HRAImail-.-	Yesavg 33¢	$900.02	$2.6K	+$1.7K	— 13-3 (16)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Noavg 59.4¢	$3.3K	$530.47	$-2.8K	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
└ No leg	Noavg 59.4¢	$3.2K	$371.84	$-2.9K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 81.8¢	$135.1	$158.63	+$19.48
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 83.2¢	$910.02	$437.22	+$144.65	60% 911-595 (1506)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540	Yesavg 55.3¢	$221.32	$383.89	+$163.97	54% 115-97 (212)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 80.2¢	$2.0K	$172.48	$-1.8K	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 69.2¢	$1.3K	$126.34	$-1.1K	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 24.9¢	$561.1	$110.89	-$283.09	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 85¢	$1.1K	$93.15	$-1.1K	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$24	$55.2	+$31.2	18% 4279-20045 (24324)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Noavg 33.5¢	$181.01	$31.93	-$149.09	63% 712-413 (1125)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 2.2¢	$45.68	$18.41	-$40.44	47% 1688-1871 (3559)
DI dips.<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$11.7	$12.48	-$0.31	47% 10355-11792 (22147)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 97.2¢	$4.86	$4.85	-$0.01	77% 12289-3775 (16064)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Noavg 22.6¢	$191.72	$3.86	-$23.27	42% 3178-4309 (7487)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 24.3¢	$44.71	$3.16	-$7.98	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 28.5¢	$37.51	$1.81	-$5.68	40% 1048-1577 (2625)

shineforever

Yes

Invested

$16,401.32

Value

$45.0K

PnL

+$28.8K

Record

58%

83-61 (144)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$8,701.46

Value

$19.4K

PnL

+$10.7K

Record

83%

81-17 (98)

bot-rapin

Yes

Invested

$5,354.67

Value

$14.7K

PnL

+$9.3K

Record

—

4-0 (4)

morito181

Yes

Invested

$4,464.09

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$6.9K

Record

61%

860-552 (1412)

JabJabich

Yes

Invested

$1,508.64

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

63%

179-107 (286)

btna

Yes

Invested

$3,403.23

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

71%

42-17 (59)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$31,609.51

Value

$4.1K

PnL

$-27.5K

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

Both legs:

No$31,230.5167.6¢$-28.0K

Yes$37938¢+$578.47

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$736.68

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

75%

110-36 (146)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Invested

$31,237.08

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-29.3K

Record

50%

525-521 (1046)

HRAImail-.-

Yes

Invested

$900.02

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

—

13-3 (16)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Invested

$3,334.28

Value

$530.47

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

Both legs:

No$3,199.1859.4¢$-2.9K

Yes$135.181.8¢+$19.48

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$910.02

Value

$437.22

PnL

+$144.65

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540

Yes

Invested

$221.32

Value

$383.89

PnL

+$163.97

Record

54%

115-97 (212)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$2,003.57

Value

$172.48

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$1,267.57

Value

$126.34

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$561.1

Value

$110.89

PnL

-$283.09

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,147.5

Value

$93.15

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$24

Value

$55.2

PnL

+$31.2

Record

18%

4279-20045 (24324)

Burkilota1CTR

Invested

$181.01

Value

$31.93

PnL

-$149.09

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$45.68

Value

$18.41

PnL

-$40.44

Record

47%

1688-1871 (3559)

dips.<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.7

Value

$12.48

PnL

-$0.31

Record

47%

10355-11792 (22147)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$0.01

Record

77%

12289-3775 (16064)

BiggggggggCTR

Invested

$191.72

Value

$3.86

PnL

-$23.27

Record

42%

3178-4309 (7487)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$44.71

Value

$3.16

PnL

-$7.98

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$37.51

Value

$1.81

PnL

-$5.68

Record

40%

1048-1577 (2625)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 27 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 54% · 24

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.