Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-11-05?

15 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (68%) · No at 100¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 68%

Total Value

$12.6K

Combined PnL

$320.63

Smart Money Entry

85.5¢ → 99.9¢

+17% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 22 top traders (68%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares12,403

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Yes7 traders

Total Value$194.36

Total Shares11,731

Combined PnL$-1.8K

No — 68%Yes — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

68% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (19 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 79% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 88.6¢	$3.7K	$3.9K	+$432.05	42% 3173-4329 (7502)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 91.1¢	$4.4K	$2.7K	+$244.26	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 87.6¢	$3.3K	$2.4K	+$286.3	53% 22809-20010 (42819)
E4 e46m3	Noavg 51.9¢	$1.8K	$761.32	+$1.1K	72% 14056-5423 (19479)
KO korda77	Noavg 96.2¢	$723.71	$495.84	+$17.5	44% 6543-8188 (14731)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 81.4¢	$954.86	$345.48	+$63.53	47% 1691-1873 (3564)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 10.9¢	$313.9	$313.8	-$0.09	40% 1147-1723 (2870)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 92.9¢	$755.35	$302.08	+$14.55	39% 1079-1698 (2777)
ME merod	Noavg 97.1¢	$312.43	$297.52	+$5.28	43% 3184-4215 (7399)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 95.2¢	$924.16	$208.13	+$5.77	42% 1204-1692 (2896)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 95.6¢	$189.95	$193.64	+$3.69	61% 913-595 (1508)
morito181	Noavg 97¢	$148.21	$146.58	+$2.82	61% 862-554 (1416)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 94¢	$352.69	$130.31	+$7.29	47% 2238-2490 (4728)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 86.6¢	$696	$68.43	+$8.17	55% 4458-3657 (8115)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 14.1¢	$492.66	$59.52	-$388.09	48% 59434-63450 (122884)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 19.7¢	$637.25	$54.91	-$561.09	50% 20843-21072 (41915)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 82.8¢	$503.09	$48.22	+$7.04	41% 1130-1637 (2767)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 36.7¢	$911.2	$32.06	-$657.83	58% 45573-32987 (78560)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$25.35	$20.4	-$4.96	18% 4304-20139 (24443)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$49.07	$17.35	-$31.73	53% 16539-14712 (31251)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Yesavg 21.4¢	$181.01	$9.29	-$171.72	63% 713-413 (1126)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.8¢	$16.52	$0.83	-$15.3	49% 255-269 (524)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$3,726.1

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$432.05

Record

42%

3173-4329 (7502)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$4,423.46

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$244.26

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

cigarettes

Invested

$3,266.02

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$286.3

Record

53%

22809-20010 (42819)

e46m3

Invested

$1,777.65

Value

$761.32

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

72%

14056-5423 (19479)

korda77

Invested

$723.71

Value

$495.84

PnL

+$17.5

Record

44%

6543-8188 (14731)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$954.86

Value

$345.48

PnL

+$63.53

Record

47%

1691-1873 (3564)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$313.9

Value

$313.8

PnL

-$0.09

Record

40%

1147-1723 (2870)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$755.35

Value

$302.08

PnL

+$14.55

Record

39%

1079-1698 (2777)

merod

Invested

$312.43

Value

$297.52

PnL

+$5.28

Record

43%

3184-4215 (7399)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$924.16

Value

$208.13

PnL

+$5.77

Record

42%

1204-1692 (2896)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$189.95

Value

$193.64

PnL

+$3.69

Record

61%

913-595 (1508)

morito181

Invested

$148.21

Value

$146.58

PnL

+$2.82

Record

61%

862-554 (1416)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$352.69

Value

$130.31

PnL

+$7.29

Record

47%

2238-2490 (4728)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$696

Value

$68.43

PnL

+$8.17

Record

55%

4458-3657 (8115)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$492.66

Value

$59.52

PnL

-$388.09

Record

48%

59434-63450 (122884)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$637.25

Value

$54.91

PnL

-$561.09

Record

50%

20843-21072 (41915)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$503.09

Value

$48.22

PnL

+$7.04

Record

41%

1130-1637 (2767)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$911.2

Value

$32.06

PnL

-$657.83

Record

58%

45573-32987 (78560)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.35

Value

$20.4

PnL

-$4.96

Record

18%

4304-20139 (24443)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.07

Value

$17.35

PnL

-$31.73

Record

53%

16539-14712 (31251)

Burkilota1CTR

Yes

Invested

$181.01

Value

$9.29

PnL

-$171.72

Record

63%

713-413 (1126)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.52

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$15.3

Record

49%

255-269 (524)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 22 top traders (68%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

68% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (19 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 79% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.