Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (96%). 28 of 41 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club end in a draw?

28 of 41 top Polymarket traders hold No (68%) · No at 3.5¢ · $220K held · ends Nov 5

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 68%

Total Value

$220.2K

Combined PnL

$-29.7K

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 3.5¢

-93% since entry · 28 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

28 of 41 top traders (68%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 96%)28 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$202.2K

Total Shares208,027

Combined PnL+$102.3K

No28 traders

Total Value$18.0K

Total Shares278,278

Combined PnL$-131.9K

Yes — 32%No — 68%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

27 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

68% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Diverging

ctrNo 65% · 23

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 68% · 37

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
shineforever	Yesavg 38.5¢	$22.4K	$56.3K	+$33.9K	58% 83-61 (144)
DI dips.	Yesavg 89.6¢	$27.0K	$24.3K	+$2.5K	47% 10348-11772 (22120)
bot-rapin	Yesavg 33.1¢	$7.8K	$22.7K	+$15.0K	— 3-0 (3)
morito181	Yesavg 62.8¢	$13.3K	$20.8K	+$7.1K	61% 858-552 (1410)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 18¢	$3.6K	$19.6K	+$16.0K	75% 110-36 (146)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 40.2¢	$7.3K	$17.6K	+$10.3K	83% 81-17 (98)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 81.1¢	$13.7K	$16.4K	+$2.7K	60% 911-595 (1506)
BT btna	Yesavg 46.3¢	$6.9K	$12.0K	+$6.2K	71% 42-17 (59)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 16¢	$16.5K	$10.5K	$-5.7K	50% 20715-20970 (41685)
HR HRAImail-.-	Yesavg 23.9¢	$2.0K	$7.9K	+$6.0K	— 13-3 (16)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 42.6¢	$1.7K	$3.8K	+$2.1K	52% 173-159 (332)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 76.1¢	$79.8K	$3.8K	$-76.0K	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Noavg 58.8¢	$37.3K	$1.9K	$-35.4K	50% 524-521 (1045)
xxNyx	Yesavg 87.9¢	$4.5K	$576.5	+$463.54	82% 1794-403 (2197)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 21.6¢	$3.9K	$432.72	$-2.5K	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
PU purplegattoCTR	Noavg 57.6¢	$5.8K	$324.31	$-5.2K	49% 6195-6328 (12523)
CI cigarettesCTR	Noavg 32.6¢	$2.4K	$238.43	$-1.9K	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Noavg 28.2¢	$1.5K	$123.84	-$913.88	43% 3158-4259 (7417)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR	Noavg 2.3¢	$201.84	$102.88	+$1.8K	39% 1048-1650 (2698)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 79.4¢	$1.9K	$79.98	$-1.8K	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
E4 e46m3CTR	Noavg 7¢	$268.8	$77.45	-$154.12	72% 13908-5278 (19186)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR	Noavg 26.4¢	$419.47	$77.06	-$73.94	39% 1066-1669 (2735)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Yesavg 95.2¢	$212.99	$76.6	-$58.33	55% 4405-3598 (8003)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 74¢	$1.4K	$61.96	$-1.4K	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
ifyouloveme<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$23.4	$58.74	+$34.47	55% 321-264 (585)

shineforever

Yes

Invested

$22,370.11

Value

$56.3K

PnL

+$33.9K

Record

58%

83-61 (144)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$26,979.99

Value

$24.3K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

47%

10348-11772 (22120)

bot-rapin

Yes

Invested

$7,759.12

Value

$22.7K

PnL

+$15.0K

Record

—

3-0 (3)

morito181

Yes

Invested

$13,326.31

Value

$20.8K

PnL

+$7.1K

Record

61%

858-552 (1410)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$3,638.94

Value

$19.6K

PnL

+$16.0K

Record

75%

110-36 (146)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$7,318.03

Value

$17.6K

PnL

+$10.3K

Record

83%

81-17 (98)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$13,691.82

Value

$16.4K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

btna

Yes

Invested

$6,903.31

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

71%

42-17 (59)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$16,549.66

Value

$10.5K

PnL

$-5.7K

Record

50%

20715-20970 (41685)

HRAImail-.-

Yes

Invested

$1,955.32

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

—

13-3 (16)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$1,680.38

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

52%

173-159 (332)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$79,760.44

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-76.0K

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Invested

$37,262.16

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-35.4K

Record

50%

524-521 (1045)

xxNyx

Yes

Invested

$4,533.73

Value

$576.5

PnL

+$463.54

Record

82%

1794-403 (2197)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$3,875.01

Value

$432.72

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

purplegattoCTR

Invested

$5,842.31

Value

$324.31

PnL

$-5.2K

Record

49%

6195-6328 (12523)

cigarettesCTR

Invested

$2,379.66

Value

$238.43

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

BiggggggggCTR

Invested

$1,480.85

Value

$123.84

PnL

-$913.88

Record

43%

3158-4259 (7417)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR

Invested

$201.84

Value

$102.88

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

39%

1048-1650 (2698)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$1,926.81

Value

$79.98

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

e46m3CTR

Invested

$268.8

Value

$77.45

PnL

-$154.12

Record

72%

13908-5278 (19186)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR

Invested

$419.47

Value

$77.06

PnL

-$73.94

Record

39%

1066-1669 (2735)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Yes

Invested

$212.99

Value

$76.6

PnL

-$58.33

Record

55%

4405-3598 (8003)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$1,432.08

Value

$61.96

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

ifyouloveme<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.4

Value

$58.74

PnL

+$34.47

Record

55%

321-264 (585)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

28 of 41 top traders (68%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 96%)28 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

27 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

68% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Diverging

ctrNo 65% · 23

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 68% · 37

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.8%

3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1997.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

2097.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.