Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-11-03?

34 of 57 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $393K held · ended Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$392.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

92.2¢ → 99.8¢

+8% since entry · 34 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

34 of 57 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No34 traders

Total Value$371.9K

Total Shares393,004

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Yes23 traders

Total Value$20.0K

Total Shares218,332

Combined PnL-$528.33

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 21

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 95.1¢	$107.4K	$107.9K	+$464.29	94% 936-64 (1000)
99 999585	Noavg 90.5¢	$85.5K	$84.6K	-$897.75	95% 57-3 (60)
VE Venusian	Noavg 89.5¢	$23.1K	$22.8K	-$258.29	53% 916-813 (1729)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 91.2¢	$25.0K	$22.1K	$-2.9K	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
CA Cannae	Noavg 89¢	$15.8K	$16.0K	+$187.13	53% 16384-14558 (30942)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 91.7¢	$15.9K	$15.6K	-$311.72	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
RN1	Noavg 93.4¢	$14.3K	$14.9K	+$545.02	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
MI MigRodrCTR	Yesavg 11.2¢	$13.1K	$13.5K	+$364.18	22% 15-52 (67)
p1252	Noavg 89.5¢	$13.4K	$13.3K	-$148.42	54% 108-92 (200)
LI Limousin	Noavg 89.6¢	$10.2K	$11.3K	+$1.0K	56% 942-736 (1678)
AN Anon455	Noavg 89¢	$10.0K	$10.2K	+$162.72	55% 3323-2713 (6036)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 89.9¢	$6.5K	$7.1K	+$658.11	53% 2336-2055 (4391)
ZaiZoiBele	Noavg 99¢	$5.6K	$5.6K	-$59.22	80% 5187-1322 (6509)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 94.7¢	$5.3K	$5.5K	+$248.22	54% 906-787 (1693)
XW xwingboy	Noavg 90.4¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$52.78	64% 309-172 (481)
CB Cbs710	Noavg 90.6¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$31.91	76% 111-36 (147)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 98.1¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	-$29.21	61% 13937-8970 (22907)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 91.3¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$264.08	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
RegardedMoneyCTR	Yesavg 10.1¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$105.48	59% 892-631 (1523)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Noavg 93¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$104.96	52% 6711-6252 (12963)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 90¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$0	68% 2724-1308 (4032)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 89.5¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$30.19	52% 830-771 (1601)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Noavg 96.6¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$44.9	56% 7530-5969 (13499)
DR Dreamwire	Noavg 99.3¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$7.56	82% 2918-621 (3539)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 90¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$2.01	71% 6981-2792 (9773)

Momo63

Invested

$107,410.32

Value

$107.9K

PnL

+$464.29

Record

94%

936-64 (1000)

999585

Invested

$85,475.25

Value

$84.6K

PnL

-$897.75

Record

95%

57-3 (60)

Venusian

Invested

$23,061.75

Value

$22.8K

PnL

-$258.29

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

Flaznorp

Invested

$24,966.81

Value

$22.1K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

Cannae

Invested

$15,772.59

Value

$16.0K

PnL

+$187.13

Record

53%

16384-14558 (30942)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$15,894.15

Value

$15.6K

PnL

-$311.72

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

RN1

Invested

$14,343.9

Value

$14.9K

PnL

+$545.02

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

MigRodrCTR

Yes

Invested

$13,094.37

Value

$13.5K

PnL

+$364.18

Record

22%

15-52 (67)

p1252

Invested

$13,423.43

Value

$13.3K

PnL

-$148.42

Record

54%

108-92 (200)

Limousin

Invested

$10,222.92

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

Anon455

Invested

$10,027.74

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$162.72

Record

55%

3323-2713 (6036)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$6,526.15

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$658.11

Record

53%

2336-2055 (4391)

ZaiZoiBele

Invested

$5,633.46

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$59.22

Record

80%

5187-1322 (6509)

LightParadox

Invested

$5,287.13

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$248.22

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

xwingboy

Invested

$5,025

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$52.78

Record

64%

309-172 (481)

Cbs710

Invested

$4,700

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$31.91

Record

76%

111-36 (147)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$3,320.15

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$29.21

Record

61%

13937-8970 (22907)

38791873984189

Invested

$3,116.47

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$264.08

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

RegardedMoneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,044.51

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$105.48

Record

59%

892-631 (1523)

CandleHammerDrums

Invested

$2,884.37

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$104.96

Record

52%

6711-6252 (12963)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,700

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

68%

2724-1308 (4032)

MadridTime

Invested

$2,717.58

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$30.19

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$2,232.24

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$44.9

Record

56%

7530-5969 (13499)

Dreamwire

Invested

$1,870.23

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$7.56

Record

82%

2918-621 (3539)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$1,258.79

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$2.01

Record

71%

6981-2792 (9773)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

34 of 57 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 21

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.