Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (86%). 25 of 32 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-11-05?

25 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 14¢ · $218K held · ended Nov 5

Yes86¢No14¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 78%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$217.8K

Combined PnL

$39.6K

Smart Money Entry

81.6¢ → 14¢

-83% since entry · 25 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

25 of 32 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No25 traders

Total Value$183.1K

Total Shares150,558

Combined PnL+$32.4K

Yes7 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares14,888

Combined PnL+$7.2K

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

72% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 71% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 24

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 78.1¢	$61.9K	$97.4K	+$35.5K	51% 25760-24462 (50222)
MO Momo63CTR	Noavg 85.1¢	$57.0K	$57.0K	-$48.56	93% 954-67 (1021)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 44¢	$21.9K	$17.7K	$-4.2K	53% 61372-53688 (115060)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52¢	$8.2K	$13.8K	+$5.6K
└ No leg	Noavg 44¢	$13.7K	$3.9K	$-9.8K
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 51.3¢	$12.2K	$9.9K	$-2.3K	57% 2031-1503 (3534)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46.6¢	$4.1K	$7.6K	+$3.5K
└ No leg	Noavg 51.3¢	$8.1K	$2.3K	$-5.8K
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 87.1¢	$5.6K	$5.6K	-$80.28	53% 16808-14936 (31744)
XW xwingboyCTR	Noavg 88.5¢	$4.9K	$4.7K	-$250.96	66% 336-175 (511)
0X 0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684	Yesavg 14.9¢	$2.0K	$4.3K	+$7.1K	37% 517-868 (1385)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Noavg 70.8¢	$3.6K	$3.1K	-$433.06	61% 14367-9292 (23659)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276CTR	Noavg 89¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$120	67% 2798-1381 (4179)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 88.1¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$11.71	64% 9927-5529 (15456)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 88.1¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$9.18	64% 9969-5597 (15566)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Noavg 85.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$8.05	46% 1540-1814 (3354)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Noavg 64.8¢	$1.1K	$904.81	-$196.39	52% 14498-13182 (27680)
DI dips.CTR	Noavg 82.7¢	$800.9	$837.32	+$36.42	47% 10628-12140 (22768)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 88¢	$814.88	$787.08	+$13.88	50% 28433-28340 (56773)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 87.6¢	$669.49	$676.67	+$7.18	53% 1430-1268 (2698)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 50.9¢	$1.8K	$650.7	-$771.96	48% 61189-65989 (127178)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 13.7¢	$52.66	$337.29	+$306.55
└ No leg	Noavg 50.9¢	$1.3K	$313.41	$-1.1K
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Noavg 88.9¢	$1.1K	$642.02	+$27.94	58% 46700-33657 (80357)
└ No leg	Noavg 88.9¢	$469.18	$461.53	-$2.85
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 11¢	$158.83	$180.49	+$30.79
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Noavg 89¢	$651.27	$622.49	-$28.78	51% 1902-1853 (3755)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 87.6¢	$583.75	$583.31	-$0.44	52% 1380-1295 (2675)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 45.7¢	$1.8K	$564.09	$-1.2K	49% 14711-15381 (30092)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 88¢	$560.82	$557.7	+$3.24	51% 37671-36895 (74566)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Noavg 82.8¢	$1.4K	$522.77	-$896.17	60% 2710-1808 (4518)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 11.5¢	$440.09	$402.19	-$37.9	50% 21182-21443 (42625)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Yesavg 11¢	$311.2	$381.93	+$70.73	50% 2734-2712 (5446)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$61,860.88

Value

$97.4K

PnL

+$35.5K

Record

51%

25760-24462 (50222)

Momo63CTR

Invested

$57,008.09

Value

$57.0K

PnL

-$48.56

Record

93%

954-67 (1021)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$21,921.48

Value

$17.7K

PnL

$-4.2K

Record

53%

61372-53688 (115060)

Both legs:

Yes$8,212.552¢+$5.6K

No$13,708.9844¢$-9.8K

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$12,198.61

Value

$9.9K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

57%

2031-1503 (3534)

Both legs:

Yes$4,136.0846.6¢+$3.5K

No$8,062.5251.3¢$-5.8K

CannaeCTR

Invested

$5,642.61

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$80.28

Record

53%

16808-14936 (31744)

xwingboyCTR

Invested

$4,937.21

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$250.96

Record

66%

336-175 (511)

0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684

Yes

Invested

$1,966.55

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$7.1K

Record

37%

517-868 (1385)

LilybaeumCTR

Invested

$3,571.73

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$433.06

Record

61%

14367-9292 (23659)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276CTR

Invested

$2,669.98

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$120

Record

67%

2798-1381 (4179)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$2,233.86

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$11.71

Record

64%

9927-5529 (15456)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$2,146.23

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$9.18

Record

64%

9969-5597 (15566)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Invested

$1,476.61

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$8.05

Record

46%

1540-1814 (3354)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Invested

$1,101.2

Value

$904.81

PnL

-$196.39

Record

52%

14498-13182 (27680)

dips.CTR

Invested

$800.9

Value

$837.32

PnL

+$36.42

Record

47%

10628-12140 (22768)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$814.88

Value

$787.08

PnL

+$13.88

Record

50%

28433-28340 (56773)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$669.49

Value

$676.67

PnL

+$7.18

Record

53%

1430-1268 (2698)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$1,797.35

Value

$650.7

PnL

-$771.96

Record

48%

61189-65989 (127178)

Both legs:

Yes$52.6613.7¢+$306.55

No$1,276.5450.9¢$-1.1K

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Invested

$1,111.35

Value

$642.02

PnL

+$27.94

Record

58%

46700-33657 (80357)

Both legs:

No$469.1888.9¢-$2.85

Yes$158.8311¢+$30.79

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$651.27

Value

$622.49

PnL

-$28.78

Record

51%

1902-1853 (3755)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$583.75

Value

$583.31

PnL

-$0.44

Record

52%

1380-1295 (2675)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$1,776.63

Value

$564.09

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

49%

14711-15381 (30092)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$560.82

Value

$557.7

PnL

+$3.24

Record

51%

37671-36895 (74566)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$1,418.94

Value

$522.77

PnL

-$896.17

Record

60%

2710-1808 (4518)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$440.09

Value

$402.19

PnL

-$37.9

Record

50%

21182-21443 (42625)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Yes

Invested

$311.2

Value

$381.93

PnL

+$70.73

Record

50%

2734-2712 (5446)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

25 of 32 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

72% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 71% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 24

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.6%

14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$539.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

639.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.